Chris Day looks to continue his excellent form with a look ahead to the weekend's action including a tip for Emitom in the Rendlesham at Haydock.
Racing betting tips: Saturday February 20
1pt win Alnadam in 1.50 Ascot at 13/2
1pt win Emitom in 2.05 Haydock at 5/1
1pt win Fagan in 2.40 Haydock at 16/1
1pt win Pic D'Orhy in 3.00 Ascot at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
There are plenty of betting opportunities this weekend provided the weather continues to improve as we count down to Cheltenham with Grade One action at Ascot, a Grade Two hurdle at Wincanton, and Haydock staging the William Hill Grand National Trial.
Over 3 miles 4 1/2 furlongs there won’t be many more searching tests all season and the race traditionally provides a contender for the big race in a couple of months' time.
Alan King provides the favourite, Notachance, who followed up a pleasing seasonal debut win at Bangor with victory in Warwick’s Classic Chase five weeks ago. There’s very little to knock about him as he clearly jumps and stays very well. The only question being whether he is progressive enough to overcome a 7lbs impost from the handicapper for his latest success. He clearly handles soft ground and it’s hard to see him out of the places.
Runner-up there was Venetia Williams’ Achille who was returning from a 14-month absence when just touched off in the drive for the line. The two questions for me with him are the bounce factor and whether there is the improvement in an 11-year-old to win off a 4lbs higher mark, 9lbs higher than his last winning rating.
Enqarde, an improving seven-year-old gelding, has a nice profile for this race with form figures of 21U1 since joining Dr Richard Newland from France. There’s no suggestion he won't stay and he looked like he was going places when winning a touch comfortably at Ascot last time. For me the one doubt is his fall here in December's Tommy Whittle. Looking at his French form he’s jumped plenty of obstacles and that could well have been a blip, but I just have my doubts.
Lord Du Mesnil loves this course but hasn’t really been in as good form as he was when runner-up here off a 2lbs lower mark last year. Cloudy Glen is talented but difficult to predict, Perfect Candidate loves this track but is 14 now and surely something will be too good for him, while Potters Legend usually runs his race but looks to have nothing in hand off his rating and I’m not sure Captain Drake jumps well enough all the time to win this calibre of race.
Sojourn’s Carlisle win has been franked more than once and he ran really well in the Tommy Whittle when second to Sam's Adventure but I’d have liked to see him win that and I’m not sure the stable form is what it was in the early part of the season, though I do think the race should suit him and he’s another solid chance who will love testing conditions. He could be a similar price come the weekend.
From a value point of view at this stage the horse I like is Alex Hale’s 11-year-old FAGAN, second to Unowhatimeanharry in the Albert Bartlett five years ago when trained by Gordon Elliott but seemingly revitalised by a switch to these shores when hosing up at Newbury just over four weeks ago.
The same connections won this last year with a similar type and, while he’s been put up 10lbs for that success he’d have easily won with a stone more on his back and was rated 149, 7lbs higher at his peak as a hurdler.
Clearly the aim has been to win this and at 16/1 I think he’s some value.
Earlier on the card, the William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle, a trial for the Stayers’ Hurdle itself, sees the return of current title-holder Lisnagar Oscar, who will surely need this first run back after a wind operation under his Grade One penalty.
The one I like is last year’s winner EMITOM, who has loads of high class form including a five-length fourth behind Lisnagar Oscar at the Festival, but loves soft ground at this track and goes well fresh. He didn’t really cut it as a chaser but the stable do well in this type of event and at 5/1 I think he’ll give us a run for our money at the very least.
Over at Ascot some of our best staying novice chasers look to put the finishing touches to their Festival preparations before heading off to take on Monkfish in the Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.
There used to be a great stat about the runner-up winning what was the RSA Chase but that’s pretty hard to imagine this year.
Although he has a bit to find with the likes of If The Cap Fits and The Big Breakaway, I feel Dan Skelton’s ALNADAM has been crying out for this trip despite winning two of his last three races over intermediate trips and, on his favoured soft terrain, is a good bit of value at the current offer of 13/2.
Skelton’s horses have largely been in form for the whole of the jumps season and that can’t be said for the trainers of the two horses who are shorter than him in the betting, so I’ll take him to emulate last year’s winner, Copperhead, who came here straight out of handicaps.
The final race that catches my attention for a bet is the Betfair Cheltenham Free Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle where last year’s Betfair Hurdle winner PIC D'ORHY could outclass these opponents from just a 4lbs higher mark than his Newbury victory.
Connections considered a Champion Hurdle bid after Newbury but opted to wait and go chasing and things have not exactly panned out over the larger obstacles. He does still look to have plenty of upside, though, now he appears to need this trip.
Nicholls has always rated him highly if needing a bit of time but he's different class to these on his day and his owner loves to win the big handicaps at this track during the winter so take the 14/1 now as he could go off favourite in my view.
Published at 1700 GMT on 15/02/21