Chris Day with his best bets at Aintree and Sandown
Our man Chris Day has been in good form and he has five bets for the weekend, including the reigning champion chaser in the Betfair Tingle Creek.
Recommended bets:
Saturday
1pt win Walk In The Mill in 1.30 Aintree at 6/1
1pt win Frodon in 2.40 Aintree at 7/2
1pt win Huntsman Son in 3.15 Aintree at 7/1
1pt win Politologue in 2.25 Sandown at 5/1
Sunday
1pt win Nuts Well in 2.25 Huntingdon at 9/2
It’s fair to say the jumps season ramped up a notch last weekend with brilliant meetings at Newbury and Fairyhouse and the return to winning ways of Yorkhill in Newcastle’s Betfair Rehearsal Chase.
The action moves to Aintree and Sandown this week with the Merseyside track staging its second most important meeting of the season on ground currently described as soft.
A number of big handicap chases in the early part of the season have been won by front runners and Paul Nicholls’ Yala Enki will presumably bid to carry on that trend in the William Hill Becher Handicap Chase at 1.30 over the famous Grand National fences.
He has a one pound turnaround at the weights for the nose he was beaten by Ramses De Teillee at Cheltenham three weeks ago although the latter has been round this course once before in a National, a run that ended prematurely when his reins broke. That said it’s fair to say he wouldn’t have been involved in the finish and hadn’t really exhibited a flair for the unique obstacles.
Yala Enki should be a great sight round here although it’s surprising he’s never run in this before and I can see him putting many of the field under pressure from the off.
Minellacelebration appears better than ever at the age of ten but he’s up another 12lbs for winning a veterans’ chase here in October on the Mildmay Course where he has such a great record. He showed there that he can cope with soft ground but this will be an altogether sterner test and it will be surprising if he gets competitive at the business end.
Another trainer who knows the type of horse necessary to face this test is Nigel Twiston Davies, whose Calett Mad bids to overcome a 693-day absence if this is his chosen weekend engagement.
However, he, Crosspark, already runner up in a Scottish National after winning Newcastle’s four mile Eider Chase, and Haydock National Trial winner Smooth Steppe are all likely to have targets further down the line over extreme distances and are readily passed over.
Ben Pauling’s Le Breuil looked to be on track to run in last season’s Randox Health Grand National after an eyecatching effort in this race last December and gets a 17lbs pull for the 20 lengths he was beaten which should go some way to helping him close that gap.
However as a Cheltenham National Hunt Chase winner, this trip is likely to prove on the sharp side.
Talking of last season’s race the first and second, Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy renew rivalry with the latter having won Warwick’s Classic Chase on his subsequent outing in January. He goes particularly well fresh but is eight pounds worse off with last year’s winner, who is on a hat-trick in this race.
Robert Walford has trained WALK IN THE MILL brilliantly to win Saturday's feature on his second outing in the last two renewals of this race and his mark is just 12lbs higher than for the first of those victories.
He overcame being badly hampered at the first last year before being produced down the straight to win quite comfortably and I expect him to win again at the weekend.
He’s only 6-1 in the betting but there’s nowhere near the competition in the market that was there for last weekend’s Ladbrokes Trophy and I can’t see his price getting any bigger on Saturday.
The other race over these fences is at 3.15, the William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase over two miles five furlongs, and provides an opportunity for Modus to follow-up his comfortable Mildmay Course win here in October.
He’s been called a few names in the past but JP McManus’ gelding breezed through that contest to add to his trainer’s impressive autumn haul and is just the type to take to these unique fences although a 9lbs rise in the weights makes life more difficult.
The one I like here is Alex Hales’ HUNTSMAN SON, who I have been following for a couple of seasons and was the only horse to try and make a race of it with subsequent Grade One winner A Plus Tard in the 2019 Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase.
He was phenomenally impressive at Wetherby last time out, winning with any amount in hand from Two For Gold, who Kim Bailey considered good enough to run in last weekend’s Ladbrokes Trophy.
He’s gone up 9lbs for that facile success but the sixth, Joke Dancer, came out and won at the weekend and the form is working out so as a strong-travelling, sure footed jumper whose best form is on flat left handed tracks, I fancy Kielan Woods to deliver him with the same perfect timing he exhibited last time. I still think there's juice in prices around 7/1.
35 minutes earlier Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Santini and former Gold Cup winner Native River make their seasonal debuts in the Grade Two Many Clouds Chase over three miles and a furlong.
Both will carry Grade Two penalties as will Paul Nicholls’ FRODON, who beat Cloth Cap over 15 lengths when conceding Trevor Hemmings’ Ladbrokes Trophy hero 26lbs at Cheltenham last time. I take him to make race fitness and tactical speed count in this race with the freely available 7/2 an attractive proposition.
Sandown stage a Grade One card on Saturday although betting opportunities are more limited at this stage.
The one I do fancy at current prices is Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase winner POLITOLOGUE, who purposely avoided Cheltenham’s Shloer Chase three weeks ago to ensure he would be fresh for the Betfair Tingle Creek, the second best two mile chase run in Britain.
Altior, a late withdrawal from the Champion Chase, will be a strong opponent but he was already looking to be in need of further 18 months ago and the form of his Newbury win in February really told us very little. I believe a fresh Politologue will give him plenty to think about and at 5/1 I’m keen to play in this market.
Huntington’s Sunday card features the Peterborough Chase, the race used by Henrietta Knight all those years ago to prep Best Mate for the tests ahead. There don’t look to be any Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders this time around.
Top Notch could defend his crown but the race he won last season was a lesser affair and at 9/2 I’m keen to back NUTS WELL, who makes the long journey down the A1 for trainer Ann Hamilton.
On ratings he’s up there with the best of these and his form couldn’t have been more strongly franked with Aye Right, who he conceded weight to when winning at Kelso, running blinders the last twice and Clondaw Castle, runner up to him in the Old Roan Chase, winning at Newbury at the weekend. Magic Saint was also back in sixth at Aintree and won a good Cheltenham handicap next time out.
His best form is left handed but he’s won a couple of times going the other way round from limited opportunities and his price just looks wrong.
- Preview posted 1930 GMT on 30/11/2020