Free horse racing tips: Boxing Day and Welsh National at Chepstow

Free racing tips: Boxing Day & Welsh National

1pt win Enrilo in 1.50 Kempton (Saturday) at 7/1

1pt win Canelo in 2.05 Wetherby (Saturday) at 6/1

1pt e.w. Dominateur in 2.50 Chepstow (Sunday) at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Saturday’s Boxing Day card at Kempton is traditionally the time for connections to take stock of where their charges stand at the midpoint of the season and the entries for the big Grade One races don’t disappoint.

Paul Nicholls has a stranglehold on the King George with Clan Des Obeaux looking to win the race for the third consecutive year and Cyrname, the horse who put up the most visually stunning performance of the season so far at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall, his biggest threat.

I really don’t have a strong enough opinion to justify tipping horses at under 2/1 here and some races are good enough to watch without having a bet. This is one such race, with nothing appearing to warrant an each-way play given the doubts over the participation of the Irish horses due to potential travel issues.

The Christmas Hurdle has had more of an impact on the Champion Hurdle in recent seasons than was previously the case and Epatante is clear the one to beat here in receipt of the mares’ allowance, although I do hope Silver Streak will get reward for his consistency in a big race after another brave display in Cheltenham’s International Hurdle behind Song For Someone.

However, there are only seven runners entered so the temptation to back him each-way is somewhat reduced and after her visually impressive return in the Fighting Fifth, Epatante will take some stopping.

The Grade One on the card which does interest me from a punting perspective is the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over three miles, in which Dan Skelton’s unbeaten Shan Blue bids to win his first race at the top level.

There’s no arguing with his form with the runner-up, who he thrashed 16 lengths at Wetherby, going on to win a very competitive Haydock handicap next time. The question is whether he’s as good right-handed and we don't yet know the answer, which makes me think he’s worth opposing at 2/1.

Second favourite is Colin Tizzard’s great looking beast, The Big Breakaway, who was turned over at short odds at Exeter last time after an exemplary debut at Cheltenham in November. The stable had a good winner at Ascot last weekend but for all he looks like he should make a top-class staying chaser in time, he too looks short enough at 5/2 here.

If The Cap Fits is a Grade One winning hurdler having won the Aintree Hurdle from Roksana and Apple’s Jade in 2019, but hasn’t really convinced with his jumping in a couple of starts this Autumn and it’s rare for horses to be top-class at hurdles and fences so he's another who is easy to overlook at this stage.

The one who I think offers some value at current prices is ENRILO, who was significantly lower-rated than a couple of these over hurdles but has always been considered a top-class prospect by the Nicholls stable.

He may have needed the run when just caught on the run in at Chepstow first time out but made amends with the minimum of fuss next time at Exeter in a Class 2 race and the horse he beat, Darlac, has come out and franked the form since.

Significantly, his best form over hurdles was right-handed and he was tried in Grade One company this time last year behind Thyme Hill in the Challow Hurdle. Given a wind operation subsequently, he was presumably thought capable of better over the smaller obstacles than he showed there.

To illustrate the point about ratings and the potential disparity between hurdles and fences, Shan Blue was only rated 139 over timber yet now sits top here on 152 after two outings over fences, and each discipline needs to be treated as completely different for form purposes.

Nicholls traditionally aims his best staying novice at this so prices around 7/1 look worth an interest at this early stage given his potential over the larger obstacles, and the various doubts which surround those ahead of him in the market.

Wetherby stages the notable card in Britain on Boxing Day, where the big betting heat is the Grade Three William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase, again over three miles.

A number of these are also entered at Kempton on Sunday but Charlie Longsdon’s gallant Haydock scorer, Snow Leopardess, looks the one to beat although she has gone up 9lbs for her half-length win there and I think Alan King’s CANELO offers an interesting alternative.

Available at 6/1 after an unlucky-in-running second at Newbury last time over two furlongs shorter, he went straight into my notebook there and a 4lb rise should do little to diminish his chance of going one better in this.

He’d previously won an open-looking contest pretty decisively at Aintree and that run signalled that he would be a force in handicaps in his next few attempts, while he seems impervious to ground conditions and the long straight in West Yorkshire should give him plenty of time to find his stride.

Sunday also boasts some cracking sport with Chepstow playing host to the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase over three miles and six furlongs.

Evan Williams’ Secret Reprieve won as he liked here last time and will clearly be well fancied to follow up at the weekend but this will be an altogether different test with Yala Enki likely to set a searching gallop from the off, and jumping will consequently be at a premium in very testing ground.

Around this time last year, Oliver Sherwood’s DOMINATEUR looked most progressive in two wins here before struggling at Wetherby and Uttoxeter subsequently.

He was given a sighter round Sandown in a race he couldn’t win last time but he’s just 4lb higher than for the second of his course wins and looks ideally weighted to be on the premises now with Chepstow form regularly a feature on the CVs of winners of this race.

Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power all go 16/1 each-way with five places already on offer, and I think that’s some of the best value on offer all weekend.

Posted at 2100 GMT on 21/12/20

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