Chris Day previews Saturday's feature action at Newmarket and Ascot
Chris Day has 11/1 and 7/1 fancies as he takes an early look at the weekend's feature domestic action at Ascot and Newmarket.
Recommended bets:
1pt win River Nymph tote.co.uk Challenge Cup (3.05 Ascot) at 11/1
1pt win Veracious in Sun Chariot Stakes (2.45 Newmarket) at 7/1
All eyes will be on Enable this weekend in her bid for a third Arc but Ascot and Newmarket stage some quality action too on his side of the Channel on Saturday.
From a betting point of view by far the most interesting contest is Ascot’s Tote.co.uk Challenge Cup due off at 3.05. The going is good and with a few showers forecast for Friday and Saturday so there should be no excuses for any runners on that score.
One who has run some great races over course-and-distance is Raising Sand but he may be aiming towards the Balmoral Handicap on the QIPCO British Champions Day in a fortnight when he’s more likely to get the soft ground which suits him so well.
Spanish City and Kynren renew rivalry after finishing second and fifth respectively in the Ayr Gold Cup. Both must be taken seriously but I expect the latter to finish in front this time. It's his second race since undergoing a wind operation having been off the track for 94 days prior to that outing.
He landed a gamble when backed into 11-4 in this race last year and should confirm superiority over Greenside who was runner-up. William Carver is booked for the ride which effectively takes his mark below the one from which he won 12 months ago and this looks to have been his target at a place and trip where he’s run some of his best races.
Saeed bin Suroor holds a decent hand with Final Song, who finished fourth behind Love in the Guineas. Her form tailed-off afterwards but she returned in great heart at Newbury when finishing a two lengths second to Glorious Journey with some smart sorts in-behind. She is interesting off her mark of 105 if allowed to take her chance in a handicap for the first time.
The trainer also has the four-year-old Light and Dark entered after a pleasing return from a break when an eyecatching second to Breath Of Air at Sandown despite not getting a clear run. He's another for the shortlist.
Blue Mist won over course-and-distance in July but never got into the race behind Documenting here next time and the third that day, Society Lion, an improving three-year-old trained by Sir Michael Stoute, looks a massive danger.
He sauntered into the lead that day under Cieren Fallon but may have been in front too long and wandered left when challenged. Surely he’ll be ridden with more restraint here and it’s easy to see him being the one to beat although he does need four to come out to get a run.
The one I think who ticks all the boxes though is RIVER NYMPH. Clive Cox and Adam Kirby are enjoying a purple patch and I can’t see the revised weights bringing him and Tranchee much closer after they finished first and second at Newbury recently with fresh air back to the third.
That was Danyah who came out and won well at Haydock at the weekend. The selection earlier won easily over this track and trip and looks just the type for this as an improving three-year-old who can race prominently and acts on any ground. Quotes of 11/1 are tempting and I could see him going off at half those odds.
From a ratings point of view, Saturday’s best race is staged at Newmarket, where some top-class fillies and mares line up in a scorching renewal of the Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes.
Jonny Murtagh is enjoying a great season and has supplemented his Matron Stakes winner Champers Elysees for this and it's easy to see why. It generally pays to follow fillies in form in the autumn and she showed a fine turn off foot to win at Leopardstown. Three-year-olds get three pounds from their elders and she must be in the shake up.
Similar comments apply to Irish Guineas winner Peaceful, who was runner up at Leopardstown and brings consistently high-class form to the table. She’d finished third in the Prix de Diane in between races and is a very solid, proven Group One performer who always runs her race. However she holds an alternative engagement in France
Possibly the best form from from a filly or mare in this division this season was Terebellum’s second in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and she may not have been as at home on the softer ground in the Falmouth last time. She has a real chance for the Godolphin team if back to her best.
Over the years though it has paid to follow Sir Michael Stoute and Cheveley Park Stud when they keep older fillies in training and they run Group One heroine VERACIOUS, who was a comfortable winner on her comeback in a lesser grade at Haydock last time despite being easy to back.
The second that day beat colts in a Listed race at Sandown subsequently and the form looks pretty decent now with the promise of more to come.
She beat the Prix De La Foret winner One Master in last year’s Falmouth and freshness at this time of year counts for plenty as should her ability to race prominently, which appeared to be an advantage at the Cambridgeshire meeting.
She’s available at 7/1 in a place and she's where the value lies at this stage.
Logician is the logical winner of the Cumberland Lodge Stakes back at Ascot if that’s his chosen engagement although odds of even-money do not appeal from a betting point of view.
Last year’s St Leger winner overcame a lengthy racecourse absence to beat his sole rival at Doncaster last time and cannot be opposed on form but it's a watching brief at the moment with regards to this contest.
Preview posted 1945 BST on 29/09/2020