Left to right: Andrew McLaren, Matt Brocklebank and Ben Linfoot

Weekend Racing: Expert Panel on Ascot Chase, Haydock and more tips

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Sun February 18, 2024 · 9M ago

Our expert panel of Ben Linfoot, Andrew McLaren and Matt Brocklebank tackle some of the key questions ahead of this weekend's action.

Is the Betfair Ascot Chase a straightforward task for L'Homme Presse?

Ben Linfoot: It should be if he’s in the groove. I was quite impressed with how he reeled in Protektorat in the Fleur De Lys on his first run for 391 days, even if he was getting 4lb. Pic D’Orhy is a good yardstick over this course and distance but Shishkin beat him 16 lengths in this race last year and another emphatic win could be coming L’Homme Presse’s way. The bounce factor is on my mind and I’ve tried to measure it with Venetia Williams’ horses. I’ve drilled down to her horses who were running within two months of a reappearance after a year or more off before that, and the results are 32 winners from 267 runners at 12%, a slight drop-off from her usual strike-rate (around 16%). Take from that what you will - L’Homme Presse is a high-class horse and I think he’ll be fine.

Andrew McLaren: No. I don’t doubt he is the best horse in the race, but I think there are a few reasons to think he could get turned over on Saturday. I loved what he did at Lingfield on his comeback but my first reaction when hearing his owner mention this race in the aftermath was, 'why!?'. It was a hard enough race for a horse having his first run for over a year, so the question must be asked - how much of a mark will that have left with just a 27-day turnaround? Don’t get me wrong, it’s good to see, but I think the ‘straight to Cheltenham’ approach would have been understandable in this case. Then there’s the track. Yes, he’s won at Ascot before but that was a Graduation Chase where he outclassed his rivals despite jumping left, and that trait was on display again in the King George where he looked booked for second behind Bravemansgame before coming down. He’s obviously better going the other way around and you just know Paul Nicholls will have Pic D'Orhy absolutely primed to take advantage of any chinks in the favourites armour.

Matt Brocklebank: I was dead impressed with L'Homme Presse on his comeback at Lingfield but, like Andy, I'm still slightly surprised connections are keen to come here en route to Cheltenham, not in terms of timing but more to do with the fact he's never looked a natural going right-handed. His raw ability is likely to see him through but Pic D'Orhy will be fully tuned up for this and no doubting waiting in the wings if the favourite falters. I'm also expecting to see more from Ahoy Senor now the Russell yard is cooking on gas again. I know this horse has his detractors but a bull-by-the-horns ride back in trip on a clockwise course could just help this enigmatic talent discover his mojo again.

Which of the five Reynoldstown runners appeals most and why?

Ben Linfoot: I think Brave Kingdom’s excellent jumping could give him the edge over Apple Away who hit one again at Warwick last time. Paul Nicholls did great work with another novice chaser by Brave Mansonnien - Bravemansgame – and this fellow is similar in the way he jumps fences so well for one with such inexperience. I loved the way he knuckled down to beat another good novice in Theatre Man last time out and I think he might be too strong for Apple Away here, even giving her the 7lb allowance.

Andrew McLaren: Not a betting race for me but I’d be hoping Apple Away can win this. She was well beaten by Grey Dawning last time but I don’t think we saw the best of her there, her conditional jockey (who was unable to claim) going off way too hard in front, but with Derek Fox back in the saddle now she’ll hopefully be able to show how good she really is.

Matt Brocklebank: Russell is probably going into the Ascot Chase with hope rather than expectation but I reckon they'll be disappointed if Apple Away can't win this Grade 2. She's bumped into Grey Dawning a couple of times and run well on both occasions, while she impressed me greatly when winning at Leicester in between Haydock and Warwick. I've not ruled her out being competitive in Grade 1s again this spring so she's the one to beat here, for sure.

Do you think there’s a bet to be had in the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock?

Ben Linfoot: I’d have Butch favourite in my book. Olly Murphy’s horses are in red-hot form at the moment and with conditions set to be very testing at Haydock you’re going to need a horse that thrives in deep ground. Butch beat some smart handicappers in heavy ground at Cheltenham last time out and Kayf Tara progeny are at their best when the going gets tough.

Andrew McLaren: I like Red Risk and I’m surprised to see such a gap between him and Botox Has in the betting. There was hardly anything between them at Wetherby in November and Red Risk has a 2 lb pull in the weights here. He revels in the mud, as demonstrated when narrowly going down to the well-handicapped West Balboa in a gruelling Lanzarote Hurdle last year, and I think he’ll turn that Wetherby form around with the Moore horse.

Matt Brocklebank: It's going to be hard to chisel any value out of the layers here and the dead obvious one I thought might be underestimated is Sounds Russian, who hasn't run for ages and not jumped a hurdle in public since October 2021. I do like a hardened chaser back over timber when the going is tough at Haydock and this horse is clearly a strong stayer who goes well fresh too. Sadly, at the moment he's only around 9/2 which doesn't exactly get my juices flowing.

Is there a handicapper you’re keen to back at Haydock or Ascot on Saturday?

Ben Linfoot: I’ll be keeping a close eye on Castle Rushen’s odds in the Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock (3.50). Nicky Richards can get them ready first time up and this horse has gone well fresh before so his 296 day absence is of no concern. He’s got loads of heavy ground form, is unexposed over three miles and is bred for this sort of test. Rated 8lb below his peak hurdles mark, I think he can go very well.

Andrew McLaren: I’ll be backing Hyland in the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle at Ascot. He started the season in red-hot form, winning at Warwick and Cheltenham, before running a career best in a hot handicap at Newbury where he was third behind Ed Keeper. The form has worked out well, it was backed up by a good timefigure, and I don’t see this drop in trip being an issue given how he travelled through that race. The reopposing Rambo T was eight lengths behind the selection in sixth that day but is 10 lb worse off at the weights now after doing his bit for the form with a decisive win back at Newbury, yet is significantly shorter in the betting (at the time of writing).

Matt Brocklebank: I'm going to have to assess just how bad the ground gets at Haydock closer to the time so for now my focus is at Ascot where Monviel leaps off the page in the 2m3f handicap hurdle (2.25). His trainer Harry Derham will be winning major Saturday handicaps for years to come, based on the start he's made with a licence, and this race just looks ideal for his horse, who hasn't really taken to fences in two starts before Christmas. He's only 8lb higher than when bolting up over 2m here in November 2022 and has been lightly raced since. At a bigger price, Torn And Frayed is on my radar in the Swinley Handicap Chase (3.00), providing it doesn't get much wetter. He runs off a good mark here and his record going right-handed is quite encouraging.

Give us one other horse - running anywhere in Britain or Ireland - to keep in mind this weekend…

Ben Linfoot: Watch out for Anno Power in the mares’ bumper, the closing race at Ascot on Saturday. She’s a half-sister to Willie Mullins’… you guessed it… Lecky Watson, and she caught the eye with the way she travelled on debut at Exeter in November where she finished second to Dunskay, who won again at Huntingdon last week. Her trainer Harry Fry has an excellent record in mares’ bumpers (20/101 at 19.8%) and she can make the most of her Exeter experience in this heat.

Andrew McLaren: Iwilldoit is another I want to have on side this weekend in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. A Welsh Grand National and Classic Chase winner, he clearly relishes these marathon tests and I think he’s shown enough this season to suggest he has another big race in him. He ran a cracker when third in the Welsh National off a massive weight, the only one who could go with Nassalam initially in the straight and that effort probably told late on when pipped for second by Iron Bridge, and he again emerged with credit when third behind L’Homme Presse and Protektort last time. The handicapper has started to relent and I expect him to put up a bold bid with Dylan Johnston’s 5 lb claim meaning he can effectively race off 144, 3lb lower than for that Classic Chase win.

Matt Brocklebank: I refuse to give up the ghost with Darwell Lion, who ran a big race in fourth at Lingfield two starts ago and didn't show his best when tried in a hood at Southwell (course debut there) late last month. He's come down 4lb since returning from a break in early-December and I think he'll enjoy getting back on the Tapeta this weekend. He was entered in a weaker race at Newcastle but we'll be getting a bigger price now he's been declared for the 0-105 at Wolverhampton (7.45) and I think he could spring a surprise.

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