David Massey struck with a 5/1 winner on Tuesday and he has two bets for Hereford on Wednesday as he bids to make more profits for the week.
Recommended Bets: November 25
1.5pts win Onchan in 2.15 Hereford at 3/1 (minimum 11/4)
1pt win Molly Olly's Wishes in 2.50 Hereford at 17/2 (minimum 13/2)
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Get On Onchan - 2.15 Hereford - Onchan
It's rare I find a bet in a novice hurdle, as the prices tend to be correct, but I’d have Young Buck and Onchan a bit closer than 4/7 and 3/1 that the opening shows have tonight and so the latter is a bet at the price.
Young Buck essentially won a match here on his latest start, beating Ziggy Rose by 1¼l, but the second, despite having some good form to her name, might not be worth the mark she’s currently on (it comes from a Listed race at Doncaster, the form of which has taken a couple of knocks) and the form might be overrated a little.
Onchan’s staying on third to Ashdown Lad at Wetherby has already had a boost, the winner going in again easily at Uttoxeter at the weekend, and the second and fourth both very good bumper horses last year. He should continue to progress as the season goes, and can take advantage of the 6lb he receives from Young Buck here.
The fact that Onchan is a full brother to Lord Windermere drops a very big clue that he really ought to improve for this step up in trip as well, and he’s worth a bet.
Incidentally, we have one eye out here for Geordie Washington, who shaped encouragingly on his first start here at the beginning of the month but if he finishes in the first six today, will get a handicap mark. He’ll be of more interest at that point.
Wish Can Win - 2.50 Hereford - Molly Olly’s Wishes
Valse Au Taillons is going to be very popular after her all the way win at Warwick, where forcing tactics seemed to bring about an improved effort, as she’s off the same mark here, but equally it wasn’t hard to spot Molly Olly’s Wishes travelling very strongly late on in an ultra-competitive Wincanton handicap either, and with Valse Au Tallons likely to give her a target to aim at, she might get the better of the battle after the last.
The figures tell you that was just about Molly Olly’s Wishes best effort to date. She can be a bit keen for her own good and probably got there a bit soon at Wincanton, but if Harry Skelton can hold onto her a bit longer here, she will have her chance late on.
A tough race, and you can’t rule many of them out, but at the price, I’d make her a bet.
Can Trapper Peak on Wednesday? - 11.45 Wetherby - Trapper Peak
Trapper Peak returned from a seven month break to finish second behind Bannixtown Glory at Carlisle in October and it would be fair to say that piece of form is working out very well - the winner taking a Listed contest at Kempton on Monday, and the third and fourth both winning on their next starts. Sadly, he ran below par when made favourite at Sedgefield on his latest start, a rare blip for one that’s usually very consistent, but the point remains that his first piece of form this season is fine.
As a fully exposed 11yo however, there won’t be any improvement to come, and trainer Justin Landy hasn’t had a winner for getting on for a year now (albeit from just 33 runners). When I first looked at the race I thought around 12-1 as a fair e/w price, given conditions are fine and he’s generally consistent, but the trainer form is a concern and I’d now be looking for 16s and bigger before I got involved. Given his overall profile, you’d expect him to drift overnight, but he’d only be a small e/w bet even if he does hit the price.
Posted at 1745 GMT on 24/11/20
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