Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

Recommended Bets, November 4

2pts e.w Royal Birth in 2.30 Lingfield at 18/1 (minimum 12/1)

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Perfect Pace Set-Up: 2.30 Lingfield – Royal Birth

There must be a very good chance the pace collapses in this contest, with so many speedsters on the front end - take your pick from any one of five or six even in the absence of Ornate, and that might open it up for sole hold-up performer Royal Birth to come through late and nick it.

Initially thought better over a straight five, he’s shown that not to be the case and has an excellent and consistent record over C&D which reads 1125421524. In order for him to show his best form, he needs a race where they go flat out from the start, enabling him to travel on the bridle in behind the pace before coming through with his late effort. He’ll get that here, and he ran perfectly well at Kempton after a short break last time. That came over 6f, a trip he’s raced over 18 times, winning just once. He is demonstrably better at this trip, and should build appreciably on his latest effort granted a suitable pace scenario.

Here's how we see the race developing: the five drawn immediately outside the selection will attempt to get to the front before the bend, while the wide-drawn pair Han Solo Berger and Watchable will look to tuck in just behind that quintet, with their riders careful not to be parked four or five wide in the straight. Royal Birth will sit on the rail, and Sean Levey will allow the pacesetters to have their battle while sitting close enough behind that one of the wide runners can’t simply drop on to the fence in front of him. The leading quartet will hurtle into the bend, swinging off the inside as they do so.

Behind them Royal Birth, with Han Solo Berger on his outside ensuring he doesn’t run off the bend himself, will check a little and head to the rail, where a gap has opened. Watchable and Han Solo Berger will be committed to either coming wide of the leaders, or looking to find gaps between runners as they weaken, and perhaps one of them will get the gaps and come home strongly, but Royal Birth should have clear sailing on the inside, and with nothing to check his run, he should launch a strong bid.

It’s possible that Good Effort could win the battle for early supremacy from lower rated rivals, and he is much respected, but Royal Birth would have beaten him with a clear run at Newcastle in January at level weights, and he gets a 10lb pull now. Given that swing in the weights, it’s a little hard to believe that Good Effort is as short as 9/4 with firms who make Royal Brave 18/1. It’s easy to see four or five of the runners being compromised by the likely disputed pace, whereas it plays to the strengths of Royal Birth, and even if you believe the 9-y-o is susceptible to younger legs, he looks to have an ideal scenario to run on past tiring rivals into the frame, and looks a cracking each-way bet as a result.

Brace Yourself, Del Boy: 2.40 Nottingham – Red Derek

Both Dave and I decided that looking at end-of-season Flat cards on bad ground was a waste of time, and we binned Nottingham off, but I still need to mention one. We put up Red Derek at Haydock last time, and he again came in for a moderate ride, setting just a modest pace and then sticking to the worst of the ground up the inside in the straight. He gets a change of jockey today, and while Main Fact is an obvious favourite in his bid to complete a Flat treble, he will end up being better value here than he was last time, having gone off a well-backed 4/1 shot in the same grade.

He’s out of the weights here, but is on the same mark as last time, and his earlier second on soft ground at Haydock in September continues to work out well. A seven runner race with a deserved odds-on favourite is a poor punting medium, but I must at least flag Red Derek up given the reasons we made him a bet last time largely still apply.

Preview posted 1750 GMT on 03/11/2020

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