Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

With so little action over jumps last week, though at least more by the end than had been promised at the start, and of decent quality too, I’ll split this week’s column into coverage of the frost-beating Lingfield Winter Million fixture as well as selected events in Ireland before summarising succinctly the divisional leaders as I see them using a combination of overall times, circuit times and sectional times in the juvenile and novice departments.

I’m all in favour of winter innovations like the Million but there was disappointingly little quality on offer or imagination present in the race conditions in either the bumper or those races over hurdles given the money on offer to be a real alternative to Cheltenham’s forthcoming Trials Day.

Did JPR One stake Arkle claim?

How that resolves itself as the fixture heads to Windsor going forward remains to be seen. Thankfully, that wasn’t quite the case over the larger obstacles where the salvaged Grade Two Lightning Novices’ Chase moved across from Friday’s lost card featured a couple of Grade Two winners in the shape of Djelo and Master Chewy as well as JPR One who was representing Grade One form having finished third behind Le Patron in the Henry VIII at Sandown last time out.

It promised to be informative but Djelo didn’t get beyond the first fence after being cut up by the wayward Matata, badly hampering Master Chewy in the process, and that left the path clear for JPR One to notch his second win of the season.

On what Djelo had shown previously, mindful too that his form had been most progressive, I suspect he’d have given JPR One, who beat runner-up Matata far more easily than the half-length margin suggests, a very good run for his money but I’m not sure he would have beaten him.

I’ve expressed doubts before about JPR One’s position in the two-mile novice chasing pecking order, and I don’t doubt still that he’s some way off the best in his division, but a 140 timefigure was a career-best over fences and it was hard not to be impressed by the way he travelled and jumped. He’s still got a fair bit of improving to do to involve himself in the finish of a typical Arkle, but circumstance and context often trump ratings come raceday and he’s looked very much at home over fences in the small-field events he has contested on sharp courses.

Two of the last five Arkle’s have attracted just five runners and given that scenario again, it’s not hard to see him running into the frame at a price in that race on the speed-favouring Old Course where he would have won comfortably back in November but for stumbling and unseating at the last.

Djelo’s trainer Venetia Williams will no doubt have felt very frustrated after that contest but the winner’s enclosure wasn’t long in welcoming her after her returning L’Homme Presse made a very satisfactory comeback in the feature event, the Fitzdares Fleur de Lys Chase.

Last seen unseating at the last when held by Bravemansgame in the 2022 King George, L’Homme Presse only really had the now-exposed Gold Cup level participant but no longer a potential Gold Cup winner Protektorat to beat in a contest in which he was favoured by the race conditions. A 151 timefigure is only just shy of the career-best 153 he recorded in the Dipper at Cheltenham back in his novice days and is a standout figure when only his reappearances are considered, so he looks to have come back at least as good as ever and potentially better which is a good fillip for the Gold Cup field.

The other ‘good’ event on the Lingfield card was the two-mile handicap chase in which First Flow conceded lumps of weight to his five rivals to win his first race since the 2021 Peterborough Chase. A solid round of jumping proved key in a race where the pace was slightly uneven and a 145 timefigure is well below what he is capable of, suggestive to me that he didn’t need to run close to his official 158 mark to go home with the prize.

Is Allaho back to his best?

Over in Ireland, Allaho won the Grade 2 Horse and Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles as he had in both 2021 and 2022 after which he went to victory in the Ryanair Chase. Whether he did enough to validate being cut to a general 5/2 for this year’s renewal of the Cheltenham feature after beating three rivals, one of who lost both front shoes and reportedly bled while another was running over a trip well short of his best, I’m not sure, on top of which foul and worsening conditions made time comparisons with the novice won by Harmonya Maker half an hour earlier hard to nail.

For what it’s worth, Allaho covered the two and a half miles four seconds slower while carrying 10lb more while running the final circuit barely any quicker and only just coming home from two out and the last a shade faster. Harmonya Maker might be useful on her day but she’s no world beater and I’d rather peg Allaho on what he achieved at Kempton in the King George.

Ferns Lock got back to winning ways in the finale and looks well on course for the Festival Hunter Chase. Conditions had got very testing by then and in the circumstances running home from the last just over a second slower than Allaho while carrying six pounds more wasn’t a bad effort. High Class Hero seemingly put up a smart performance in the staying novice hurdle but again conditions dictate a conservative view.

The previous day 2022 Albert Bartlett runner-up Minella Cocooner had taken a beginners chase at Navan in fair fashion. The race wasn’t run at a frenetic gallop (timefigure 132) and it rather fell apart as it progressed with a couple falling by the wayside but the step up to three miles for him for the first time over fences clearly suited and the longer the race went on the more relentless he looked.

It was no surprise to hear Racing TV regular Steve Mellish bemoan the state of the Cheltenham ante-post markets last week and while it’s very true a good number of the defensive prices quoted currently about some of the market leaders will be bigger on the day, there remain a couple of up and comers in the novice events I’ll get around to mentioning whose merits still don’t look to me to have been fully appreciated.

Mullins dark horse for Cheltenham

I’ll start with the novice hurdlers and the opening event, the Sky Bet Supreme, where Mystical Power and Jeriko Du Reponet occupy the first two places in the market. Neither are among the leaders on overall time - Caldwell Potter (139) has that gig closely followed by Jango Baie (138) and Predators Gold and Farren Glory (both 137) - but when closing sectionals are added into the mix both leap high up the rankings.

Slade Steel is another who comes out highly on this metric, but he looked a stayer when winning last time even though his only Dublin Racing Festival entry is at two miles. Ballyburn heads the market for the Ballymore and that looks about right. Like the market leaders in the Supreme, he doesn’t have the highest overall timefigure (Challow winner Captain Teague has with 139 but he’ll surely be better aimed at the Albert Bartlett) but he’s top of the pile when considering circuit times and sectional times and that pitches him mid 150s.

Recent Lawlor’s Of Naas winner Readin Tommy Wrong also features highly on this reasoning, but the horse who strikes me as very underestimated is another Closutton inmate, I Will Be Baie, who I’ve got at 152 using this approach and whose Fairyhouse New Year Day win that prompted that figure was made to look better after runner-up My Trump Card won at Navan over the weekend. With no obvious preference emanating from the yard right now I’ve backed him at big prices for both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett.

If there is a domestic novice in this division that has gone under the radar it’s surely Ben Pauling’s Handstands. He impressed me greatly on his Rules debut at Hereford, posting a mid 140s circuit time/sectional figure, and won very nicely under a penalty at Newcastle earlier this month. The Albert Bartlett is hard to call right now. The standard setters in the staying division seem to set quite a low bar (Butch at 136 has the highest final timefigure) but Shanagh Bob (146) rates higher on combinations and already has one Albert Bartlett win to his name!

Hands still to be played in novice departments

So far as the novice chasers go, the 2023 Sky Bet Supreme winner Marine Nationale is already odds on for the Arkle and he holds a clear advantage on overall time (155) and combinations (168 with me) so deserves that position. Winter Million unfortunate Master Chewy is second on overall time (149) while the progressive Uncle Phil is only 1lb behind on 148 in a division that seemingly lacks depth, but it may be that current Turners favourite and standout Gaelic Warrior ends up here if connections decide to bite the bullet and run in the Irish Arkle next weekend.

Should that be the case, and in the expectation crack French novice Il Est Francais stays at home, that might leave the Turners door open for the progressive Grey Dawning who posted a 161 timefigure at Warwick on his latest run over three miles but is set to drop back to two and a half in the Scilly Isles at Sandown next weekend. If Grey Dawning ends up in the Turners, and surely the Brown Advisory is the race for him after his Warwick win - Grangeclare West and Fact To File (both 150) and Monty’s Star (148) are best on overall time but with so many horses either having multiple entries or being in the same stable or ownership and with plenty set to change after the Dublin Racing Festival, I’d like a bit more certainty before getting involved.

Nurburgring heads the ratings on overall time in the juvenile division, being the only one of his age group to have recorded a timefigure higher than 135 this season, only to find the horse he beat at Fairyhouse then, Kala Conti, reversing the form at Leopardstown in a messy race on Boxing Day.

Burdett Road who has headed the market all season, and promising French import Sir Gino make just as much appeal on combined ratings but Nurburgring’s trainer Joseph O’Brien has an equally interesting prospect in the shape of Intellotto who scored at Leopardstown over Christmas. Runner-up in two runs on the Flat, including when splitting Timeform 110 and 100 rated rivals at Cork in April, he couldn’t have won in much better style at Leopardstown on his first run since and a 119 timefigure looks more like 138 when sectionals are included. He might be seen along with Burdett Road and Sir Gino at Cheltenham this weekend.

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