Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

'What the St Leger means to Yorkshire, the Northumberland Plate to Northumberland, and the Derby to the whole of Great Britain, the Ayr Gold Cup means to Scotland. It stands out as a cameo in each year’s sporting calendar over the Border as the Scottish Turf Classic’.

So wrote J. Fairfax-Blakeborough about the early days of racing at Ayr in his fascinating Northern Turf History series ‘History of Horse Racing in Scotland’. Back then the Ayr Gold Cup was run over two miles (it was first run as handicap in 1855 and had its distance changed to six furlongs in 1908 soon after the current racecourse was opened) and ‘the Scottish Turf was something of a closed shop, care being taken that the trophies and prize money remained the Scottish side of the Border’.

The Western Meeting might still the pre-eminent Flat meeting in Scotland but most of the prizes now find themselves heading elsewhere. Scottish trainers won just three of the 24 races over the three-day meeting and didn’t even field a runner in any of the four listed or Group races.

The Firth Of Clyde Stakes, sponsored again this year by Virgin Bet, has been the only Group race run yearly at Ayr since 2006 and the latest renewal was the first to go to Ireland with Johnny Murtagh’s Prime Art scoring decisively with another Irish raider Navassa Island back in third.

Neither Prime Art’s timefigure (90) nor her Timeform performance rating (101) is much other than what we have to come to expect from the race these days and, if anything, the result was another reminder that the Irish juvenile form – of which more later – is a notch above the British right now with Prime Art having been beaten readily by subsequent Group Three winner Kitty Rose at Naas two starts ago.

The best timefigure of the three six-furlong races on the day came not from Significantly (a lowly 90) in the feature but from Wobwobwob who stayed on very strongly to post a 101 in the Silver Cup. According to the Course Track sectionals, Significantly ran the slowest final furlong of the three winners (12.22 compared to 11.92 for Prime Art and 12.12 for Wobwobwob) but those figures don’t tell anything like the full story.

Blocked several times, he didn’t get a clear run until well inside the last while fourth-placed Albasheer was another better than the result, flashing home mostly out of camera shot after making up over four lengths on Significantly from halfway. Significantly had finished second in the Portland on his previous outing while Wobwobwob had finished third (and been first on his side) in the Great St Wilfrid showing once again that the first port of call when figuring out these big sprint handicaps is good recent form in a very similar context.

Crystal could win at higher level

The only winner all week at Ayr to post a better timefigure than Wobwobwob was Pink Crystal in the listed Arran Scottish Sprint. William Haggas’ filly had finished second in the same race last year when running a 102 and needed only to improve 1lb on that to go one better which is just about good enough to win her a weak Group Three if she repeats it elsewhere later this season.

So, there wasn’t much of interest on the clock at Ayr and much could be said about the two-day meeting down at Newbury where very slow ground and small fields were the order of the day and just over a length covered the first five in the feature Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes in which the winning timefigure was just 89.

Promising Salisbury winner Mister Sketch hit odds-on in-running but couldn’t find his way past Array who ended up going two better than in an equally underwhelming Sirenia Stakes (where Mill Reef third Seven Questions had been second) at Kempton.

I can’t remember the standard of domestic two-year-old six-furlong pattern races being so low and Heather Main must have wished she’d chanced her arm in one of them with her very likeable Zoulu Chief. Richard Hannon talked up Serene Seraph as a likely Fred Darling type after her facile victory on Friday but a lowly 74 timefigure in desperate conditions doesn’t say a lot for the form.

Over in Ireland the weekend action was much more interesting, however, and no performance attracted more attention than One Look’s debut win in the second recent running of the resurrected Goffs Million.

23 went to post with Cherry Blossom, talked up herself as a potential 1000 Guineas prospect after her Lowther second, sent off even-money favourite in the expectation she’d be well suited by the step up to seven furlongs, but in the event all she did was undertake pacemaking duties for One Look who stalked her into the race before sprinting six lengths clear, in so doing running easily the fastest final three furlongs of the day among those races run beyond five furlongs.

Her winning time on a day translated into a timefigure of 98, smart if not outstanding, but upgraded all the same to 102 after Timeform’s sectional upgrade from three furlongs out is taken into account and the fact she was sent off as short as 5/1 suggests this sort of performance wasn’t unexpected.

It will be fascinating to see how she progresses. It’s not unusual for a two-year-old to make his or her debut in a listed or Group race and according to my research 124 juveniles have done so in either Britain or Ireland since 2010 with, not unexpectedly, just seven of them emerging with a win. One might imagine that as a solid foundation for further progress yet six of the seven (all of whom were foaled coincidentally or not before March 3rd) failed to win again or even progress much at all.

Could One Look follow in the hoofprints of Lush Lashes?

Of course, the Goffs Million isn’t (and never has been) a Group or listed race in its various guises but it’s nearly always taken a Group-level performance to win it and again, not unexpectedly, only Lush Lashes other than One Look among the handful of newcomers who have tried their luck in the race first time out has been successful.

She turned out to be top class, albeit finishing only sixth in the 1000 Guineas before winning the Coronation Stakes and Matron Stakes. Other Million winners Soul City and Galeron have gone to finish in the frame in either the 2000 Guineas or its Irish equivalent and on balance I’d suggest One Look, a late April foal, deserves her position towards the top of the betting. Her sire Gleneagles has two runners in the in 2000 Guineas with one of them being the 2023 third Royal Scotsman.

If there was another horse who ran at the Curragh over the weekend who looks likely to work their way into the Classic picture as a three-year-old I suspect it probably isn’t One Look’s stable-companion and Beresford Stakes winner Deepone but maiden winner Gasper De Lemos.

I’ve nothing against Deepone whose 107 timefigure is a shade below those recorded in the race by the good horses Capri and Japan in the period since Timeform started returning timefigures from Ireland but this looked a big step up on form and I suspect he might need very soft ground to show his best having looked a touch slow on a fast surface behind Diego Velazguez at the Irish Champions Festival at Leopardstown.

Gasper De Lemos is the latest hot two-year-old by Justify after City Of Troy, Ramatuelle, Capulet (favourite for this weekend’s Royal Lodge at the time of writing) and Opera Singer and he looks to have a very bright future. Fourth on his Leopardstown debut behind his stable-companion and Beresford runner-up Chief Little Rock when very green, Course Track had him running easily the fastest last furlong, Gasper De Lemos did the same at the weekend as well as run the penultimate furlong fastest of all as well on his way to a 99 timefigure.

Judged by the manner in which he stayed on strongly his form when stepped up to a mile this season can only go one way and it sounds as if he might be supplemented for the Futurity at Doncaster.

The other Group race on the day, the Weld Park Stakes, went to Noel Meade’s Caught U Looking in a well-up-to-scratch 99 timefigure. A five-length winner from the Beresford fifth Stromberg when previously seen, Caught U Looking ran easily the fastest last three furlongs on the card and might well be the sort that continues to get underestimated in races of this type given her trainer Noel Meade is not associated with training two-year-olds. By Harzand, she’s another who’ll relish the step up to a mile if she runs again this season.

Constitution Hill faces biggest test in Champion Hurdle

There’s nothing more that suggests the next jumps season is on its way than the annual Nicky Henderson annual Owners Open Day. There wouldn’t have been any grumbles from those in attendance last weekend I’m sure, but the veteran Lambourn handler had disappointed plenty of racing followers a few days earlier judging by some of the reaction I read with the announcement his star hurdler Constitution Hill will be staying over hurdles this season instead of going chasing.

I can’t say I’m surprised but as a racing fan I don’t feel cheated either with the decision. Given the current dire state of novice chasing in this country, Henderson’s own reluctance to campaign abroad these days anywhere other than Punchestown in May, a far cry from the days when he was a regular in Ireland with his best horses before Christmas, and Constitution Hill’s own reputation, the Champion Hurdler would surely have ended up in a series of mismatches bigger even than when George Foreman downed Jose Roman in one of the fastest heavyweight title bouts of all time.

It could be argued Constitution Hill’s route to Cheltenham might be just as dull over timber, but it seems to me he’ll encounter a horse in the Champion Hurdle better than any he’s met over hurdles so far and I see that as a much more appealing prospect than a potentially one-sided Arkle. The horse in question is Impaire Et Passe and I’ve included him at 5/1 for that race in a 2024 long-range each-way treble that also includes the horse he beat in the Ballymore, Gaelic Warrior, at 10/1 for the Brown Advisory as well as One Look at 12/1 for the 1000 Guineas. The win part of that bet alone is in excess of 850/1 and if that treble comes off, you might find someone else will be writing this column next summer!

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