Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

With the 2024 fixture list delayed again, it remains to be seen how the racing landscape will look a year from now and how some of the reported changes under consideration will impact racecourses, attendances and betting interest if they are forced through, even before the potentially devastating impact of affordability checks becomes apparent.

Doncaster, host of the St Leger and a ‘premier’ track, is unlikely to be as affected by any of the reported possible changes as lesser courses will likely be – Fakenham has reportedly already lost its most popular fixture, for example- but even so it’s easy to forget just how different the racing landscape once was.

In his 1952 book ‘Homes of Sport: Horse Racing’ John Rickman wrote that ‘Doncaster, which vies with York as the most important flat race meeting in the north, has five meetings a year’. Bath, a more prominent track then than it is now and about which he also wrote, held just four meetings a year.

Some things haven’t changed much, however. On the topic of the St Leger Rickman wrote ‘One realises by the time the St Leger is run what a great feat it is for a trainer to turn out a ‘Triple Crown’ winner. Apart from the fact that a horse that can win over a mile in the spring, stand up to a Derby preparation, and then win a St Leger, is rarely foaled, there are not many trainers who can take him successfully through such a long and trying period. The 2000 Guineas and the Derby – yes. But the Leger as well – rarely’.

If Rickman was still with us – the former ITV presenter died in 1997 - he will not have been surprised to learn that Ballydoyle and Clarehaven, the two training outfits who have come to dominate not just the final Classic but the racing calendar at the highest level in Britain and Ireland, had all bases covered in the Leger with Aidan O’Brien (six Leger winners this century before Continuous) and John Gosden (four) providing seven of the nine runners.

The Triple Crown hasn’t been won since 1970, of course, and in common with nearly every other winner this century Continuous started his three-year-old season off over further than a mile with the only two that didn’t being Kingston Hill who took in the 2000 Guineas and Lucarno who ran in a maiden at Newbury.

The latest Leger was dismissed in some quarters as a substandard event beforehand, but as things turned out not only did Continuous’ 124 performance rating come in at the higher end of the scale since 2000 but his 119 timefigure at the end of a strongly run race ranks even higher on that separate scale. On a racing surface that wasn’t as soft as the official going description implied, Continuous saw out the trip too powerfully for Arrest, on whom Frankie Dettori had jumped ship from one-time favourite Gregory, and the improving Desert Hero and Tower Of London, all of whom ran career-best timefigures.

All the same, it seemed to me that tactics played a part in the result with all the first four ridden from well off the pace. Gregory, who had been coming back at Continuous at the end of the Great Voltigeur, very nearly ran up to his best on the clock but paid the price for being kept too close to the pacemakers.

O'Brien record a worry for Arc bid

It may be the Arc is on the agenda for Continuous but the Leger hasn’t been a significant Arc trial for a long time now and all the nine winners since 2000 who tried their luck in the Arc have failed with only Hurricane Lane in 2021 among that number managing to reach the first three. Continuous has clearly improved greatly since being swatted aside by King Of Steel at Royal Ascot, a horse who himself was then no match for Hukum and Westover in the King George, but it’s a rarely-mentioned or even known fact that that O’Brien has sent no less than 30 three-year-olds to the Arc this century yet only one of them (High Chaparral back in 2002) has made the first three.

Before leaving the Leger it’s worth noting that Continuous’ win was the fifth in just ten domestic Group One races for Japanese-bred horses trained by Aidan O’Brien – an angle well worth keeping onside in coming years as the Ballydoyle outfit move on from the Galileo era.

There were a couple of other eye-catching performances on the clock at Doncaster outside the two-year-old races, among whom you could argue Trueshan perversely also deserves inclusion after winning the Doncaster Cup in a very slow 48 despite pulling Hollie Doyle’s arms out for most of the way.

Less flippantly, it was good to see Sumo Sam back up her Goodwood form in the ‘fillies St Leger’, the Betfred Park Hill Stakes. A long-priced winner of the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood in heavy ground in a 105 timefigure, she left even that smart effort behind with another strong staying effort from the front under the excellent Rossa Ryan, finding extra as the placed horses threw down their challenges to pull away again and score in a 112 timefigure so showing she doesn’t need very soft conditions to show her best.

The best effort of the week by a filly, however, came from Matilda Picotte in the Sceptre Stakes on the concluding day. Also seen at Goodwood where she’d played up before finishing ninth in the Oak Tree Stakes, the 1000 Guineas third again caused some trouble before the start but dominated from the off to score by almost four lengths in a high-level 114 timefigure which would make her a leading player in the Prix de la Foret at Arc weekend should connections choose to supplement her.

Rogue Lightning, a horse I flagged up as being potentially Group One class after his Shergar Cup win, continued his rise through the sprinting ranks with a ready win in the Scarborough Stakes but race was a cat-and-mouse affair and the timefigure was only 80.

Gemini too big at 33/1 for 2000 Guineas

So far as the two-year-olds are concerned, the star performance of the week on the clock came not as might have been anticipated in the Champagne Stakes, which saw the latest appearance of what had looked a very good two-year-old in the listed Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot in the shape of Rosallion, or in the May Hill Stakes, but from Dancing Gemini who had finished well behind Rosallion at Ascot on his second start but has flourished since.

‘It is at Doncaster that a number of hitherto backward animals can find their form’ wrote Rickman and though he won emphatically in a good time at Newbury after Ascot, Dancing Gemini left that form well behind in the Betfred Flying Scotsman, scoring in a 115 timefigure which has been bettered among his own age group only by City Of Troy (119) in the Superlative at Newmarket’s July meeting.

Unlike City Of Troy’s win, Dancing Gemini’s performance didn’t cause much of a splash in the 2000 Guineas betting as he’s still widely available at 33/1 at the time of writing which looks way too big. By Camelot out of an Australia mare, Dancing Gemini has the pedigree and run style of one who’ll be very well served by the step up to a mile. His Doncaster timefigure is easily the best of those who have won the race since it was upgraded in 2013 (previous winners included Frankel) and it shouldn’t be forgotten one of the those was Tip Too Win who was also trained by Roger Teal and who ended up finishing second to Saxon Warrior in the 2018 2000 Guineas.

The Vintage Stakes runner-up Iberian took the Champagne Stakes in a modest 85 timefigure that saw the race develop into a tactical affair where all he had to do was show the best turn of foot.

With the uneasy favourite Rosallion, who had the runner-up Sunway well behind him at Ascot, too fizzed up and clearly not himself I’m Inclined to think the market knew a bit more about his well-being than those who swear by the form book and I’m not going to put too much store into the value of this form.

The other Group races for the two-year-olds, the May Hill Stakes and the Flying Childers, went to Darnation and Big Evs respectively. A 100 timefigure is ‘middling’ so far as recent winners of the May Hill are concerned but a three-length winning margin is quite significant in historical terms as the only two horses to have bettered that this century, White Moonstone and Inspiral, both went on to land the Fillies Mile (white Moonstone never ran again).

Big Evs didn’t set the world alight on the clock in winning the Flying Childers in an ordinary 99 timefigure, but it was quite striking how he did it, showing far too much pace for his rivals, and his two-and-three-quarter length winning margin equalled that of Soldier’s Call in 2018 on his way to sixth place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint which is also apparently Big Evs' target.

Whether he has the speed for that remains to be seen, but his win reminded me that Richard Hannon’s Baheer is worth looking out for when he reappears. An easy winner at Newbury over six furlongs on fast ground on his penultimate start, he was the only horse Big Evs couldn’t get off the bridle in the Molecomb before he started to lag entering the final furlong.

Baheer, of course, was beaten almost five lengths on his debut at Newbury by Zoulu Chief and Heather Main’s youngster, who blitzed all his rivals in a nursery at the York Ebor meeting that is working out stupidly well – the second won the Group Three Sirenia Stakes next time out – surely remains one of the most underrated youngsters out there.

Back at Doncaster, the mile maiden won by newcomer God’s Window looks a race worth following. The timefigure wasn’t outstanding – just 76 – but using the sectional data published by Total Performance Data he comes out with a sizeable upgrade, enough to take him well into the 90s, and he could be heading for the Futurity next month.

In the same contest, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s At Vimeiro is surely a banker for a similar event after this promising debut. By Sea The Stars from a top German middle-distance family, he followed the winner through without getting involved but the data showed he ran an eye-catchingly fastest final furlong.

Burns needs support

Finally, on an unrelated but important topic, it was very disturbing to see apprentice Harry Burns banned last week for two months for failing to declare a change in his medication to the BHA. Burns suffers from Crohn’s Disease, an oppressive auto-immune condition whose symptoms can be debilitating if left untreated, as the BHA’s Chief Medical Adviser should surely be aware.

I feel greatly for Burns as I was diagnosed with a different auto-immune condition in my younger days that saw me hospitalised on three occasions, including sadly over the weekend that saw Hawk Wing run clean away with the Lockinge Stakes. Much like Hawk Wing, who only ran once again, the condition thankfully burnt itself out, but I still have an open invitation to the Huddersfield Eye Clinic if needed to obtain the corticosteroids that quell the associated severe eye inflammation which even now still sometimes flares up from nowhere (GPs aren’t allowed to prescribe them).

From personal experience, trying out alternative treatments, none of which were remotely performance enhancing, to most efficiently manage the condition was a necessary evil, and while Burns probably didn’t help himself by representing himself, hopefully he’ll appeal and win his case.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org