In the first of two festive columns, Timefigure expert Graeme North reflects on some of the quality action on both sides of the Irish Sea during the Christmas period.
Shishkin should go straight to Cheltenham...
Received wisdom has it that Christmas is the time of year for giving as well as being the season of peace and goodwill to all men so with that in mind I’ve decided to cover the festive action not in one column this year but two, while keeping thoughts about the trade paper’s indulgence of Nicky Henderson’s tedious Christmas Day histrionics fretting about a 1/12 shot to myself.
So, with the second and third days of Christmastide to analyse, let’s crack on.
Somehow the belated reappearance of Constitution Hill in a grossly uncompetitive Christmas Hurdle ended up getting spun as Kempton’s gain after he had been pulled out of the rearranged Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Sandown over two weeks previously.
As was only to be expected, just as would have been the case had he lined up in the Fighting Fifth, Constitution Hill had next to nothing to beat with the Elite Hurdle winner the only other in a five-runner field to start at odds smaller than 33/1. A win in a canter in a lowly 127 timefigure - the slowest for the race since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps in 2015 – was effectively no more than the sort of racecourse gallop his trainer is so keen on and told us nothing new.
At the time of writing, the Matheson Hurdle hadn’t been run, and hopefully Impaire Et Passe will advance his Champion Hurdle claims in it, otherwise it’s going to be a dull rest of the season in what was once a highly competitive division.
Henderson was unfortunate not to have won the other Kempton Boxing Day feature, the King George VI Chase, also sponsored by Ladbrokes, with Shishkin who unseated his rider two fences from home having travelled almost too well. The winning time for the King George was slower than for the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over the same trip but that’s not by itself a stick with which to beat the King George form as the Kauto Star has been run in a faster time than the King George four times since 2010 including in 2011 when David Pipe’s Grands Crus posted a faster time than Kauto Star and 2012 when his Dynaste clocked a time almost three and a half seconds faster than Long Run.
Even so, 2023 King George winner Hewick was slower even than that relative to Kauto Star winner Il Est Francais and a winning timefigure of 138 at the end of a race in which he was the first to labour doesn’t convince me that this is Gold Cup-winning form.
Runner-up Bravemansgame once again ran a fair way below the form he seemed to show in last season’s Gold Cup, a race Hewick fell heavily two-out in when well beaten at the time, third-placed Allaho didn’t quite get home despite the less than frantic pace and looks a waning power, while The Real Whacker still has to prove he is up to this level and Frodon has now been retired.
Against that backdrop, I’d be slightly wary of thinking Shishkin has advanced his Gold Cup claims much, though I’d expect him to be ridden with a fair bit more patience in the Gold Cup, much as A Plus Tard was when storming to a 15-length win in 2022. Neither speed nor stamina promises to be an issue for him and, for once, he’s one horse I’d like to see go straight to Cheltenham.
French raiders have enjoyed plenty of success at Kempton over the years and Il Est Francais was certainly impressive in the Kauto Star. Not only did he run a faster time than Hewick, equating to a 153 timefigure, surpassing the 148 Shan Blue posted in 2020, but he ran the final circuit (the final fence jumped on the penultimate circuit to the finishing line) in an almost identical time while coming home from three out as well as two out fastest of all the chase winners on the card who also included Blow Your Wad (139 timefigure) whose race was over half a mile shorter.
All that translates into a 6lb sectional upgrade taking his overall timerating to a very smart 159 and his presence would light up an already peak Brown Advisory, but connections seem to be leaning towards keeping him in France for the first half of 2024. His easy win suggests Aintree might be the destination for Hermes Allen this season.
Jango not to be underestimated
The French might have prevailed at Kempton but it was a different story at Aintree where their challenger July Flower who had been second in a Grade 1 hurdle on her previous start was pulled-up in the William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle, a race that was previously called the Tolworth Hurdle and run at Sandown.
There didn’t seem any obvious excuse for the French raider on ground equally as testing as her Grade 1 second in what was a bigger field than the Tolworth previously attracted but the race saw some plenty of progression from Jango Baie who’d I’d written after his win at Ascot win that he looked more of a 140 horse on sectional times than the modest 83 timefigure he clocked that day.
He just about proved that here, posting a 139 timefigure on a day times weren’t easy to interpret on account, not of low sun for once but deteriorating ground after heavy rain. Whether he would have won had Irish raider Farren Glory, winner of the Grade 1 Royal Bond on his previous start, not fallen two out when still travelling strongly is debateable, but he strikes me as a likeable sort and not one to take lightly next time.
2023 Tolworth winner Tahmuras finally got his career back on track in the novices chase in first-time cheekpieces, clocking a smart 143 timefigure which is better than anything he achieved over hurdles.
Farren Glory’s trainer Gordon Elliott might have been out of luck at Aintree but hit the target three times at Leopardstown including in the soon-to-be-axed Grade 1 Racing Post Novices’ Chase with Found A Fifty and the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle with Kala Conti.
Found A Fifty’s 119 winning timefigure was 8lb slower than the ordinary handicapper The Folkes Tiara posted in the following handicap over the same distance after the field had pottered round which makes the tame finishing effort of the odds-on favourite Facile Vega all the more disappointing. I doubt this is top-class novice form. Two miles might suit Found A Fifty better but he had been beaten by the Irish National winner I Am Maximus over two and a half last time and maybe that’s a better insight into his merit than this win.I expected Elliott to win the Grade 2 with exciting Mighty Bandit but he was reported to have returned with a nasal discharge and can be forgiven this effort.
Kala Conti had the form in the book and had too much speed as things turned out, but a prominent position and a 63 timefigure gives this form a muddling look too. No Flies On Him looked a very promising novice in the opener, scoring easily in a 121 timefigure, while King Of Kingsfield (timefigure 111) downed the highly-touted Mirazur West in the next in good style so underlining the form of the Royal Bond.
Leopardstown’s Wednesday card featured a pair of Grade 1s that were shared between Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.
Mullins won the first of them, the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, though that was hardly surprising given he saddled four of the five runners and the one he didn’t, the favourite Captain Guinness, ran too badly too be true and was later reported to have been amiss.
Mullins’ winner was Dinoblue and she was winning her fourth race in a row, though exactly what this form is worth with Gentleman de Mee making his reappearance, Saint Roi tailed off throughout and Dysart Dynamo falling again is open to question.
A much slower finishing time from each of the last three fences as well as a final circuit time than Marine Nationale managed under admittedly quicker conditions earlier in the card suggests and a 124 timefigure perhaps suggests not too much.
Caldwell could be well served by Supreme test
Elliott won the Paddy Power Future Champions with Caldwell Potter in a very smart 147 timefigure, galloping on relentlessly in a race in which the first two pulled over a distance clear in the straight. The race has been a great pointer to Sky Bet Supreme success in recent years and, contrary to public opinion, that’s where I would send Caldwell Potter if he was mine, a race for which he ought to be clear favourite.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Odd as it seems, the Supreme these days is more often won by a horse with stamina than speed and the Ballymore is won by a horse with speed and not stamina, but post-race talk suggested he might be stepped up in trip sooner rather than later.
If there was another potential Festival winner on show, it was the aforementioned Marine Nationale. Last year’s Supreme winner made as promising start over fences as you could wish to see, almost two seconds faster from the final fence than Dinoblue despite being unchallenged translating into an overall time performance of 155, just 1lb lower than he clocked in the Supreme. No wonder he’s odds on for the Arkle after Facile Vega’s flop the previous day.
Over at Kempton Master Chewy won an exceedingly thin Grade 2 Wayward Lad Chase in which two of the four runners barely scaled 130 over hurdles and though he posted a slightly faster timefigure (149) than Editeur du Gite (147) over the same two-mile trip in the later Desert Orchid Chase, that was only because the Desert Orchid ended up with a slow-motion finish that saw the runners struggling home.
With the Festival in mind, the juvenile hurdle is probably the race to concentrate on with Sir Gino, a horse I’ve backed at 14s for the Triumph, making a promising British debut. His timefigure wasn’t great – just 109 – and nor was his hurdling at times but a far faster finishing time from the last without being asked a question suggests there’s a serious engine in there somewhere much as his French form had suggested and he’ll be a different model next time with this run under his belt.
Editeur Du Gite’s trainer Garry Moore also took the feature race at Chepstow, the Coral Welsh National, with Nassalam who marked himself out with a very wide-margin win in a 134 timefigure as a young chaser to follow, though perhaps only in bottomless ground given he had looked nowhere near this good on quicker ground previously.
Wide-margin wins were the order of the day on the card, so with that in mind, Salver, a 21-length winner of the three-year-old Finale Hurdle and also trained by Moore, probably still has a lot more to prove than might be apparent from the paper result, not least especially given his finishing splits slow as was a 60 timefigure.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org