Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis
Our timefigure expert Graeme North provides his analysis and highlights a Willie Mullins novice hurdler with a bright future.
Readers of a certain age will remember with fondness a chaser named Wayward Lad. Trained by the Dickinson family, he won the King George VI Chase three times and twice finished placed in the Gold Cup but was best known as a spectacular jumper often photographed charismatically in mid-flight splendour. The Jukebox Man’s chasing debut at Newbury last Friday, as well as the mid-air images posted on social media, brought back some of those Wayward Lad memories.
“We’re not going to fall into the trap of not running a good horse,” trainer Ben Pauling, a former assistant to Nicky Henderson, was quoted after his win in the Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase, and anyone who has the best interests of the winter game at heart will welcome that adventurous mindset sadly lacking in some of his contemporaries. After all, who wouldn’t want to see plenty more of him (Wayward Lad ran eight times in his novice chase season) after a front-running round of bold jumping like that?
Runner-up last season in the Albert Bartlett and the Sefton, races over three miles on ground Timeform called heavy at Cheltenham and soft at Aintree, The Jukebox Man looked every bit at ease if not more so dropped to two and a half miles on quicker ground (Timeform called it good to soft) at Newbury, having far too much pace for a field that included the Challow Hurdle winner Captain Teague (reportedly finished lame in fourth but stopped so quickly that another breathing operation surely isn’t out of the question) and recent impressive Carlisle winner Johnnywho.
A 112% finishing speed and a quicker time from each of the last three fences to the line than either of the other two chases on the card mean his winning timefigure (106 compared the 147 performance rating he was awarded) was never going to be fast but I would interpret that as further evidence he’s a different model already this season than he was last and he looks a seriously exciting prospect.
Kalif du Berlais, who had fallen at Carlisle when long odds-on earlier in the month, looked potentially thrown in on his smart hurdling form and took the earlier novice chase in a smart 134 timefigure, while his trainer Paul Nicholls was also on the scoresheet over hurdles with Regent’s Stroll who, if readers are unaware, is the highest-priced jumps horse purchased at public auction having been bought for £660,000 after winning two bumpers.
He wasn’t foot perfect and a 128 timefigure isn’t a bad level to be running to first time out over hurdles, but he came home from the third last almost two seconds slower than the three-year-old filly Opec despite running a near-identical final circuit time, and he didn’t bowl me over or convince me he has the speed to make it to the top in the novice division at two miles.
The fastest finish over hurdles on the card came from Strong Leader in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle with his time from three hurdles out two seconds faster than Opec and almost four seconds faster than Regent’s Stroll. Langer Dan ran well enough to suggest he’s not just the ‘spring horse’ connections have claimed and will surely get closer another day, but Strong Leader did just about enough in a 138 timefigure to suggest his Liverpool Hurdle win last spring is still the run to judge him by and that means he’s probably the one to beat in the Long Walk Hurdle.
Victtorino a Coral Gold Cup eye-catcher
Saturday’s Newbury ‘feature’, now known as the Coral Gold Cup, used to be an eagerly anticipated clash of the generations where the best staying chasers would go head-to-head with the best of the previous season's novices, but the race has gradually lost its lustre and the latest renewal was particularly underwhelming. Not only was the 13-runner field the smallest this century, but quality was lacking too with the 12-year-old topweight Sam Brown racing off a BHA mark of just 154 which is 10lb lower than the average of the highest BHA marks in the race in the preceding 15 years.
For a long way, in a race run at a decent pace that then evened out - leading to a relatively modest 126 winning timefigure, the lowest in the race since Timeform starting returning timefigures over jumps - it looked as if the French challenger General En Chef would win but he fell in a hole after running the penultimate two furlongs fastest of all and hitting 1.50 in running, eventually not even making the first three.
That left the way clear for the reappearing Kandoo Kid, another Paul Nicholls inmate back from another breathing operation, to get the better of another second-season chaser Broadway Boy by a length and three quarters. Third-placed Victtorino was held up out of his ground after some early mistakes but flew home from the last (though not quite so fast apparently as Senior Chief who went in snatches, running some sections fastest of all and others relatively slowly) and will surely be one of the Christmas handicap bankers after this pipe-opener if turning up in the Silver Cup which he won last year off a mark just 1 lb lower when leading on the bridle at the second last.
Notable timefigures were also put up on the card by Wiseguy (135) in the opening handicap chase and Impose Toi (also 135) in the two-and-a-half mile handicap hurdle but those looking for a monster figure from The New Lion to back up his opening Chepstow win were left disappointed in his clash with another promising novice Califet En Vol who also went into the race with a Timeform ‘large P’. Sectional times from each of the last three hurdles don’t add much gloss to the performance either, to be honest, and I struggled to get the bare 104 timefigure any higher than 127 after incorporating sectional upgrades.
Nicky Henderson might have had a good day at Newbury with Wiseguy (whose overall time rating I calculated to be more like 142) and Impose Toi but he would have been more focused on matters at Newcastle where his unbeaten Sir Gino lined up as favourite for the Fighting Fifth which had been stated as the intended starting point for Constitution Hill. On all known form the race looked a match between Sir Gino and last season’s Supreme runner-up Mystical Power but with the latter running no sort of race Sir Gino was left with a penalty kick to score as he liked by eight lengths in a 149 timefigure.
That’s 3lb higher than he managed last season when beating Kargese in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree, with the potential to rate a fair bit higher still given he seems set to stay over hurdles now, but it seems a bit too soon to be stating as some have done that last season’s juvenile hurdlers look a vintage bunch given plenty of those that ran in the Triumph (which Sir Gino missed because of poor stable form) could have won this race with a bit to spare.
Across at Fairyhouse, Impaire Et Passe made a winning debut over fences without pulling up any trees on the clock (timefigure just 110) but in his defence the race wasn’t run at a strong gallop and his closing sectionals – almost three seconds faster than the Timeform 120-rated Sam Magee or the Timeform 128-rated The Folkes Tiara - suggest he can climb the same heights over fences that he did over hurdles.
Anzadam creates excellent impression
The most interesting performance on the card came instead from French import Anzadam in the Grade 3 Willowwarm Hurdle. He looked to have a bit to find on a bare reading of his French form (wins at Bordeaux and Compiegne over a year previously) but he’s clearly improved a good deal since then and looked a good prospect as his rider ended up taking a pull after jumping the second last before sprinting clear after the final hurdle, running the distance from the second last to the line two seconds faster than any of the other hurdles winners and the even shorter distance from the last a second quicker.
A winning timefigure of 134 reflects the steadily-run nature of the contest but he looks to me to be at worth 142 at least after sectional upgrades are incorporated with plenty of scope to rate higher.
On Sunday, Caldwell Potter made a satisfactory chasing debut at Carlisle but the time was slow (112) as he ran around unchallenged but more interesting action took place at Fairyhouse, where commendably all the hurdles were all repositioned so no race would be affected by low sun, even if most of the races were spoiled by a severe lack of pace.
The four-runner Hatton’s Grace (timefigure 71) was a good case in point with case with staying hurdlers Teahupoo, Beacon Edge and Maxxum unsurprisingly brushed aside with disdain after the last by the long odds-on Lossiemouth whose final circuit was slower than all the other hurdle winners on the card but whose time from three hurdles out was at least two lengths faster.
The Royal Bond was run at a better pace (141) if still not a strong one and wasn’t the result supporters of Romeo Coolio were anticipating after he was turned over by a horse with a bit more pace at the trip, even if Tounsivator had been only fifth off a mark of 138 at Listowel when last seen in September.
The juvenile hurdle and Grade 1 Drinmore Chase also saw surprise results with 33/1 outsider Naturally Nimble (113) delivered late to beat the 4/1-on shot (and at the time Triumph Hurdle favourite, now 16-1) Willy de Houelle in the former, while Croke Park (65) dictated a steady pace in the latter and just had enough in hand to hold off superior rivals Heart Wood and Firefox after the last.
La Malmaison has been hit with a 10lb rise in her mark after winning the mares’ handicap chase but she was toying with her rivals from a long way out back from a nine-month break and could hardly have won more easily with her ears pricked in a 135 timefigure. She’ll surely win graded races on this evidence.
A big improver for Mullins
Willy de Houelle might have been an expensive reverse for some but earlier in the week at Tramore, in the same race the yard had won with Gaelic Warrior two years previously, Willie Mullins introduced a horse, Karniquet, who looks to have a very good future.
Timeform don’t return timefigures from Tramore because historical data from there indicates some of the race distances are highly suspect, and inter-race comparisons last Tuesday weren’t much use either given how quickly the ground deteriorated, even before factoring in omitted hurdles because of low sun. But the data available on France Galop for his debut at Pau makes for interesting reading much as the video available makes for interesting viewing.
According to the tracking data, he covered the distance from the last hurdle to the line (216m) in 14.75 seconds when only one of his rivals who finished in the first six managed to run faster than 16.11 seconds. He covered that distance in just 29 strides compared to 34 the next lowest in the first six took, exhibiting a maximum stride of 7.8 metres in that final section too compared to 6.6 for the highest of the others.
As that data suggests, and the video confirms, having been just ninth into the short straight, he was something of an eye-catcher to say the least who should really have won by several lengths. What’s interesting about his striding data, however, is that Mullins could hardly have found a less suitable track for him in Ireland than Tramore and he’ll no doubt look a very different horse when he gets chance to stretch his legs elsewhere.
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