Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

With numbers down at Cheltenham’s Paddy Power Gold Cup fixture this year because of quick ground - the 177 runners across three days was the lowest total since the Shloer Chase was added to the card in 2014 other than in 2019 when the meeting was shoehorned into two days after the opening day’s abandonment, leaving out many of the races that would have drawn big numbers - there didn’t look quite the opportunity there has been in previous years for a stellar performance on the clock, such as the 168 Sprinter Sacre managed in 2015.

Sadly, that’s how things panned out, and though there were some visually impressive winning performances only one of them - in the Shloer - made it into the 150s.

That race regularly produces a winning performance in the 160s and is no stranger too to being won by the same horse in successive years with Fox Norton (2016 and 2017) and Nube Negra (2021 and 2022) both having achieved the feat before Jonbon emulated them this time around.

Both Fox Norton and Nube Negra went on to finish second in the Champion Chase, of course, a target denied Jonbon last year when he was pulled out of the Festival at the last minute along with several of his stablemates.

His win in the Shloer might have been subject to misinterpretation - the television commentator bizarrely called him as ‘all out’ after jumping the last despite clearly not doing a tap in front – but a 157 timefigure, 4lb higher than he posted the year before when beating Edwardstone (and Nube Negra) by nine-and-a-half lengths, tells me all the old ability is still there and he will surely take all the beating in the Betfair Tingle Creek at Sandown (the track where he recorded his career-high 169 timefigure) even if the Irish send across the best of their two milers.

The other race on the card over regulation fences, the Paddy Power Novices’ Chase, was also won by the Henderson stable but ended up being very steadily run. The winner Hyland covered the distance from three fences out to the line marginally quicker than Jonbon according to my stopwatch despite the race being well over a mile further, and he was even quicker from two out on his way to an unsurprisingly ordinary 89 timefigure.

The second Resplendent Grey could have jumped better and the third Springwell Bay didn’t really settle, and in view of some of their hurdle form I’m not convinced this was an up-to-scratch renewal of a race won by Broadway Bob, Threeunderthrufive, The Real Whacker and The Big Breakaway in recent years.

What did Potters Charm achieve in victory?

The highlight over hurdles on the first day was the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, a race once upon time known as the Hyde Hurdle.

Valgrand, who was the subject of some comment in this column last week, was sent off odds-on but lost his unbeaten record to Potters Charm who had won a race on the same Cheltenham card as Valgrand three weeks previously despite an indifferent round of jumping.

After his win that day, Valgrand’s trainer Dan Skelton commented that despite a noteworthy finishing fraction and a post-race official assessment of 140 (now 139) he wasn’t entirely convinced of the merit of the performance and his fears seemed to be proved correct as his charge was put in place readily by Potters Charm who, if nothing else, looks the stronger stayer of the two.

Assistant Willie Twiston-Davis was quick to point out after the race, not unreasonably, that in beating a 140-rated animal, Potters Charm is entitled to be considered the best of the British novices. Maybe he is, and rated 146 the official handicapper certainly has a high opinion of him, but with the only other finisher being the underperforming (again) Gale Mahler, a horse with just one standout effort and well held by Valgrand the time before, the danger of rushing to conclusions about the merit of races or performances within them contested by the same tiny sample of horses seem to have made its way to the surface.

A slower overall time (timefigure was 118) as well as time from three out compared to that of the opening handicap over the same distance won by Double Powerful off an official mark of just 114 suggests to me Potters Charm is still a fair way off the top of the ladder.

Saturday’s card was a good one with plenty of runners though exactly what conclusions other than the race lacked its usual strength in depth can be drawn from the fact that the winner of the big handicap of the day, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, was a horse who had twice been beaten in the race before, including off a mark lower than he was racing off here, I’m not sure.

Perhaps the pipeopener Il Ridoto had at Chepstow the previous month was the catalyst for this third-time-lucky performance, but a rise in his official mark to 149 seems an excessive overreaction and I don’t think it’s too controversial to say he’s going to find winning opportunities hard to come by for the rest of the season for all his winning timefigure here was not far off his best at 147.

Is Sud rising to the top?

With the future in mind, the year-younger L’Eau du Sud is probably the winner over fences to take from the day, one of four horses in with a chance jumping the second last in the Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trial but 11 lengths clear at the line in a 131 timefigure that would have been a fair bit higher had his rider needed to ask him any sort of question which he didn’t as he cantered clear.

There’s no doubting he was impressive, and he’s already a much better chaser than he was hurdler, when second in the Betfair Hurdle as well as County Hurdle last season, but given the three that chased him home comprised two second-rate hurdlers and a summer jumps horse from Ireland I’m not jumping to the conclusion that some seem to have done that we’ve already seen the 2025 Arkle winner.

However, one thing is for sure – this season’s cohort of two-mile novice chasers is as exciting a bunch as we’ve had for a while, augmented in the last week or so by Nicky Henderson’s decision to go chasing with Sir Gino instead of having a pop at the Champion Hurdle, and if the 12/1 available about L’Eau du Sud is potentially good value for the Arkle then the 40/1 still there about the horse I put forward last week, Iberico Lord, is surely even more so given he gave L’Eau Du Sud a 9lb beating in the Betfair when conceding him 5lb and did so in extraordinary fashion.

Over hurdles, East India Dock put up the best performance on the clock by a three-year-old hurdler this season in either Britain or Ireland with his 136 eclipsing by some margin the 121 (and second-best figure) his stable-companion Liam Swagger had posted in the Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle two weeks previously.

Since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps, this figure has only been bettered once by a juvenile hurdler before the end of November – by Zanahiyr (143) in a Grade Three event at Fairyhouse that has still to take place this year.

Zanahiyr went on to win the Grade Two Knight Frank Hurdle at Leopardstown and then finished fourth in the Triumph but East India Dock looks something of a rabbit to me and the Triumph looks a long way off for a horse quoted as second favourite for that race.

Doyen Quest (113 timefigure) more than fulfilled the good things written about him in this column last week with a convincing success in the staying hurdle but will need to improve more if he’s to overcome a 10lb rise in his mark, while Hamsiyann (93) who landed a gamble for Tony Martin came home over a second faster from three out than either East India Dock or Doyen Quest and arguably won with getting on for a stone in hand.

Supposedly the best handicapped horse in Britain and Ireland according to one ubiquitous Racing Post journalist, Dysart Enos turned out not even to be one of the two best handicapped horses in the15-runner Greatwood, clearly coming off worst with Burdett Road approaching the last and then readily passed too by Be Aware on the run-in.

Given her trainer had revealed he’d laid her out for this, this was something of an underwhelming reappearance, not least given the relative lack of Irish representation, but the race represented a second successive win at the meeting for Burdett Road, who’d taken the Triumph Hurdle Trial won by his half-brother and stablemate East India Dock in 2023 before finding Sir Gino too classy on his final start.

All the same, a final circuit time just a second and a half quicker than the Timeform 116-rated Ace Of Spades posted in the opening four-runner maiden hurdle suggests to me there’s not a lot to get excited about on the clock and it may not end up being the strong piece of form it usually is (Iberico Lord won it last year before landing the Betfair Hurdle).

The two chases on the card not touched by unfortunate events were underwhelming affairs with the four runners going to post for Matata’s race the smallest in the race since Bun Doran beat six rivals in 2018.

Who impressed at Navan?

Across in Ireland, despite an abundance of good racing at Navan, the headline timefigure was 151, which was recorded by Found A Fifty in the Bar One Racing Fortria Chase. That’s 3lb short of the figure he recorded in the Arkle back in the spring, and if he’s got more improvement in him over fences it might be back over the sort of longer trip he looked more at ease over at Down Royal earlier this month.

His stable-mate Stuzzikini was the only other winner at the two-day fixture to surpass 130, recording a 134 in the Troytown. Graded winners Home By The Lee and The Yellow Clay both recorded 112 while running the fastest respective final circuit times of the five hurdle races on their card, while Bleu de Vassy won well but clocked in at just 109.

Raider ready to shine in top flight?

Group One sprinter in the making? Well, on the figures at least, Night Raider hasn’t much to find, given a 122 rating by Timeform after his latest all-the-way win at Newcastle. I’m not fully convinced about his top flight credentials just yet, though I’m as sure as I can be that all his turf efforts can be excused as he came from the outside stall on each occasion and pulled stupidly hard without cover on the first two of them.

Ratings are a consequence of many things with beaten margins right up there at the top of the hierarchy and it seemed to me that Anaaf and Wiltshire spent far too much time minding each other than concentrating on Night Raider out in front.

He’s a bit further down the rankings on the clocks with all his last three wins coming in at either 112 or 114 on overall time ratings (sectional upgrades added to time ratings) which suggest he could win a Group Three and maybe a Group Two but his trainer is a dab hand with sprinters and he might yet improve further now his proper vocation has been discovered.

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