Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

A quiet week just gone on the timefigure front as this one often is historically, with Ayr’s Western Meeting top-heavy on sprint handicaps, Yarmouth’s Eastern Festival bereft of the quality it attracted even as recently as a decade ago and Newbury’s two-day Mill Reef meeting, which can unearth beacons of potential, diminished this year by heavy rainfall.

For way of change, I’ll go through the performances of interest on a daily basis starting, unusually, at Thirsk on Monday.

Thirsk, a course where I was once a member until the abnormally large number of sprint handicaps it staged (and still does) finally dampened my youthful enthusiasm, isn’t the place you usually expect to find performances of interest on the clock and least of all on a Monday – after all, only one winner there this year, Cruyff Turn on Saturday September 7, has recorded a timefigure higher than 95.

Last week, however, for the third year running they staged a Sire and Dam Restricted Novice that was won by this year’s Brigadier Gerard winner Royal Rhyme in 2022 and the useful Zabriskie Point in 2023, and the indications are that the first two home this year, Watching Stars and Valiant Knight, who were separated by a short head, both promise to be well above average having beaten comprehensively a horse, Local Lad, who had already run to a Timeform rating of 90.

Watching Stars’ time compared favourably with the two other well-run handicaps over the same distance on the card yet both he and the runner-up earned upgrades of 11lb from the three-furlong marker taking their overall timeratings to 96. The winner is trained by Charlie Appleby and is by Sea The Stars while the runner-up is trained by Ralph Beckett and is by Ghaiiyyath; Timeform describe both as good-topped colts and their futures look bright.

Yarmouth’s Eastern meeting opened with a very low-key card on Tuesday, but Charlie Johnston’s Green Storm continued his race-by-race progress in the nine-furlong maiden and almost certainly still has significantly even better days in front of him.

He didn’t have much to beat as indicated by his long odds-on starting price but his nine-and-a-half length win came in at 77 on the clock which Timeform upgraded to 87 after taking into account his finishing time from four furlongs out. Manual sectionals at Yarmouth can’t be taken any closer to the finishing line than that because of camera angles but those published by Thoroughbred Performance Data suggest that upgrade should be 21lb from the two-furlong marker making that overall time rating a minimal 98 given he wasn’t asked to race harder.

That’s Listed level (as he is entitled to be, being out of a Ribblesdale winner) and his win pays a big compliment to a horse I mentioned in this column a couple of weeks ago, Amiloc, who defied a penalty when beating him in a Kempton novice in a very fast time (96) when the pair were nearly five lengths clear, ran a sub 11-second penultimate furlong and emerged with a 13lb upgrade compared to Green Storm’s 1lb using RaceIQ sectionals from the two-furlong pole.

Green Storm had finished second to Seagulls Storm in his run before that and that winner is now rated 109 after his National Stakes second, so 98 for Green Storm might still be a little low right now.

There wasn’t much going on at Yarmouth on Wednesday either, with the feature event, the John Musker Fillies’ Stakes, going to the oldest member of the field, Sound Angela, in an 82 timefigure, so giving her a first win at this level. If there’s a horse to take out of the race it might be the runner-up Naomi Lapaglia who flew home wider on the track finally trying a mile-and-a-quarter and who emerges as the winner by a length or so using the closer-to-the-line sectionals available from TPD.

There was also Listed action across at Sandown where Skellet, the only filly in the field, won the Fortune Stakes so leaving her French Group Three form last time behind after a break of over two months during which she has clearly strengthened up, though whether she’d have won had the fragile five-year-old Cash not been given so much to do not for the first time in his career (should have beaten Westover in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his 2022 reappearance) is a moot point.

The fireworks on the clock at Sandown, however, came in the juvenile contests, particularly from Cosmic Year who looked a very smart prospect when smashing up the odds-on favourite Rock d’Oro, who’d been beaten by the subsequent Champagne winner Bay City Roller at Chelmsford on his debut when the pair were five-an-a-half lengths clear, by six-and-a-half lengths.

A 71 timefigure isn’t obviously smart by itself, but a 21lb upgrade from Timeform (from four furlongs out) elevates that figure to 92 and by my calculations his finishing splits from two furlongs out published by RaceIQ elevate that figure even further to 101. A half-brother by Kingman to Time Test out of a Group One winner, he did it all very easily too and it’s hardly surprising Timeform gave him a large P, almost certainly one of the best two-year-olds we have seen so far.

Back in third and from the same point, another newcomer Quai de Bethune shaped really well, worthy of a 10lb bigger upgrade than Rock d’Oro by my calculations which suggests he was clearly second best on the day, and he wouldn’t have been far off a large P either.

On the same card Ralph Beckett saddled another useful prospect in Prince Of The Seas who posted a 85 timefigure along with a 5lb upgrade when winning the mile maiden, while back in fourth Andrew Balding’s newcomer Almeric ran the fastest last furlong by some margin and comes out just behind the winner on overall time ratings using that final-furlong metric.

Much as Yarmouth had, the first day of Ayr’s Western Meeting was a low-key one but as was the case then, one of the winning juveniles produced a useful overall timerating once sectional upgrades been bolted on to the winning timefigure.

The horse in question was the newcomer Hornsea Bay who, on his debut, won the second race, a mile novice, by three lengths with another three-and-a-half back to the third. A 12lb sectional upgrade (the placed horses got just 1lb each) takes his overall timerating to 98 and on that evidence, he’s entitled to be regarded already as one of the best staying two-year-olds in the north.

The second day of the meeting showcased a better calibre of contestant than the opening day and one of the two Listed races on the card ended up returning the best winning timefigure of the week with Star Of Lady M’s 109 in the Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies' Stakes representing another big step forward for this extraordinary filly.

A 109 timefigure (no upgrade) is 8lb higher than she had run to previously and I might have considered returning even higher had the race been at five furlongs or six furlongs for which standards are well established and not the intermediate distance over five-and-a-half which is rarely raced over. With the five-furlong sprinters looking much of a muchness at the top and hardly an outstanding bunch, it would be no surprise if connections were mulling a supplementary entry for the Prix de L’Abbaye for which she would be no forlorn hope after this.

The other Listed race, the Harry Rosebery for juveniles, went to Richard Hughes’ Star Of Mehmas who had won a minor event at Wolverhampton earlier in the month in a slow time but with a very big upgrade that took her overall timerating well into the 90s. She returned 92 here (no upgrade) but wouldn’t be sure to hold off the runner-up Uncle Don another day who blitzed home from off the pace (ran easily the fastest last furlong and will be suited by a return to six furlongs) on his first outing since beating the Molecomb winner Big Mojo at Beverley ten weeks previously.

Across at Newbury easily the more enlightening of the two juvenile contests on the card was the Haynes, Hanson and Clarke Stakes (the fillies equivalent won by Anna Swan was run in a slow time with no upgrades worth speaking of) which went to Regal Ulixes in an 88 timefigure elevated to 95 once sectionals from three furlongs out and two furlongs out are factored in. The sole Listed race on the card, the Dubai Duty Free Cup, went to the enterprisingly-ridden Witness Stand in a 106 timefigure after getting first run on the trio that chased him home.

At Kempton, Ralph Beckett underlined what a strong hand of youngsters he has this season with a ready win for his Consolidation in a well-contested novice. A 93 timefigure is decent enough by itself but factor in the sectional upgrades and he comes out close to 100, which is what he is worth collaterally on the form of his second run when he split the subsequent Grade One winner New Century and the Solario winner Field of Gold.

Gold Cup Day at Ayr remains the biggest day’s racing on the Flat in Scotland – it’s hard to believe the race was formerly contested over a mile and two hundred yards when it was run at the old course - and conditions (aided by a tailwind) were so quick this year that Lethal Levi’s winning time was the fastest in the race this century by more than a second-and-a-half and Alfa Kellenic’s winning time was the fastest in the Silver Cup by an even greater margin.

Fast times don’t always translate into fast timefigures, of course, but they did on this occasion with both Lethal Levi and Alfa Kellenic’s winning efforts coming in at 108 which reflects well on Lethal Levi given it was a career high but even better on the winning-machine that is Alfa Kellenic with her 108 also a career high but in her instance by quite some way.

The other race on the day over the Gold Cup trip, the Group Three Firth of Clyde Stakes, went to the promising once-raced and unbeaten Sky Majesty who edged out Queen Mary third Maw Lam (whose first try at six furlongs brought about some improvement) in a decent 103 timefigure. The other Listed race at Ayr, the Doonside Cup, went to Persica in an ordinary 83 timefigure at the end of a steadily-run race but he would surely have had to work harder had Eydon, like the aforementioned Cash, a fragile five-year-old with next to no miles on the clock, not been set so much to do, emerging with a bigger upgrade and unlucky not to have won in the circumstances.

Down at Newbury the feature Mill Reef Stakes went to Powerful Glory, an expensive breeze-up colt who’d won a newcomers race at Pontefract in August on his debut by five-and-a-half lengths in a fast time from a mixed bunch but who included Dash Dizzy who won at Kempton next time achieving a Timeform rating of 85.

Numerous non-runners reduced the Mill Reef field to six but there were plenty of other races on the straight course with which to compare his winning time and his timefigure comes in at 106. That’s middling as far as Mill Reef winners this century are concerned and 5lb below what his subsequent Jersey and Queen Anne winner Ribchester who was also trained by Richard Fahey recorded at the same stage of his career, but Powerful Glory looks a sprinter who might possibly stretch to seven and is worth keeping onside at those distances for now.

The other Group race on the card, the World Trophy, went to No Half Measures (103 timefigure) who had been marooned out in the centre of the track at Longchamp the previous weekend before finishing to some effect.

More from Graeme North

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• Charyn clear winner on sectional upgrades
• March close to O'Brien best
• City Of Troy timefigure only ordinary
• Anniversary form must be followed
• Babouche looks the real deal

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