Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis on Prix du Moulin and Betfair Sprint Cup

Anyone who read my last North On Sunday column that previewed Sunday’s Prix du Moulin will be aware that not only did I find the leading fancies hard to separate on form, for all one or the other promised to be favoured depending upon how the pace unravelled, but I also anticipated a fascinating race.

Well, a fascinating race was just what we got if not for the reasons I suspected but maybe I should have learned by now to expect the unexpected in Group One events.

Since the start of 2015, there have been 28 occasions in Britain in which a Group One race has been won by a horse whose starting price odds were 20/1 or bigger, six in Ireland and 19 in France where I substituted a Betfair starting price of 25 to come up with the equivalent numbers.

On plenty of those occasions, the winning horse that caused a surprise unpredictably had things very much in its favour on the day – Serpentine in the 2020 Derby, for example, left alone in front in an anticipatory role as pacemaker, while more recently Art Power in the 2023 Champions Sprint and Audience in this year's Lockinge were also seen to maximum effect by racing well apart from the remainder of the field.

Runner-up in the Lockinge, of course, was Charyn, suffering his first defeat of the year that day, and his trainer Roger Varian no doubt suffered an uncomfortable bout of déjà vu at Longchamp as his star miler fell foul of another unforeseen large advantage handed on a plate to one of his opponents, in this case Tribalist, who ended up making all the running and never looked like getting pegged back.

The tracking data, freely available on the France Galop website, makes compelling reading if you have not already seen it. In a nutshell, Tribalist’s top speed was the lowest of any horse in the race by a significant margin, he ran by far the slowest of all the horses throughout their fastest section and ran the last 600m slowest of all as well.

What he did do right, however, or what his rider Mickael Barzalona allowed him to do right, was to run fast early (or, more precisely, given all the data available, relatively fast) when his opponents, playing a self-destructive game of cat and mouse, were running too slowly. Tribalist’s top speed was reported at 67.61 km/h; Charyn hit 75.64km/h, Henry Longfellow 72.11 km/h and Notable Speech 71.89 km/h.

Tribalist ran the last 400m in 23.84 seconds; Charyn in 22.63 while Henry Longfellow and Notable Speech managed 23.22 and 23.17 respectively. Unsurprisingly, Charyn emerges as the clear winner once sectional upgrades are factored into the result and so long as this hard race hasn’t left a mark, remains the one to beat in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot next month.

You can read the rest of my Longchamp review (as well as the best of other recent action in France, that includes a win by what might be their best two-year-old, and a preview of Arc Trials day that includes the Prix Vermeille, Prix Niel and Prix Foy) in my next North on Sunday column – this weekend!

Back home, the feature race of the week was the Betfair Sprint Cup, the result of which led anyone attempting to process the latest pecking order among the leading sprinters down another cavernous rabbit hole.

Oddly enough, given its position in autumn towards the end of a season in which some sprinters will have been on the go since March, the Sprint Cup is usually won by a horse you can make a decent case for if not a leading one with Invincible Spirit in 2002 the only winner this century – until Saturday, of course - to start at bigger than 14/1.

For all he’d never been tried at anything higher than Group Two level before, it wasn’t as if Montassib was out of place at Group One level as his form going into the race was closely matched with a whole host of older sprinters. If there was a major doubt hanging over his likely competitiveness it was presumably that conditions – ground on the fast side of good with a slight tailwind – wouldn’t provide enough of a test of stamina at the trip for him.

That said, his latest Chipchase win at Newcastle over Kinross had been achieved in a time well under 1m 12.00 seconds for six furlongs, which wasn’t far removed from what ended up being needed at Haydock, and with half the field ending up being inconvenienced by the draw, much like the Nunthorpe the previous month, he took advantage of the shortcomings of those that weren’t able to make him take his form as well as his timefigure – 110, 1lb higher than when landing a York handicap off a BHB mark of 101 on soft ground last autumn - to a new level.

Like many horses before him pigeonholed incorrectly as a mudlark, Montassib clearly doesn’t need soft ground but if it does come up that way in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint then, on paper at least, his prospects of bagging his second Group One would look rosy enough if only 12 of those 28 20/1 or higher Group One winners hadn't come at Ascot. Backer beware.

The other Group race on the Haydock card, the Superior Mile, went to Holloway Boy who was gaining his first win since making a winning debut in the 2022 Chesham Stakes. Whether this was an indication that the opposition was sub-standard or the handicaps that he has been running in off big weights represent exceptionally strong form I’m not sure, but he didn’t need to improve from a form perspective and his timefigure, even after incorporating the upgrade he earned using those sectionals available from Race IQ – 111 - didn’t represent an improvement either. Fourth-placed Cicero’s Gift, a horse for whom high hopes were held at one time, finished fourth with conditions once again looking much quicker than ideal for him.

Outside of the Group races at Haydock, there were some good performances on the clock. Master Builder took a big step forward from his Sky Bet Melrose third with a dominant win in the ‘three-year-old Old Borough Cup’ and an even bigger one on the clock with his overall performance after adding his RaceIQ upgrades coming in at 105.

Epic Poet won the more tactical real thing over the same trip in a 90 timefigure from Waxing Gibbous who’ll likely prove as good if not better back at a mil- and-a-quarter and will surely head to France for a listed prize this autumn, while Shagraan won the five-furlong handicap (in which the progressive American Affair under Amie Waugh on the wrong side of the track caught my eye) in a very good 107 timefigure.

Key performances elsewhere

There were a couple of other smart performances last weekend but not all of them in races that produced a good timefigure. Kalpana looked to have a bit on in the Unibet September Stakes, at least on form, against all-weather specialist Lion’s Pride and Coronation Cup runner-up Hamish, but the market didn’t think so sending her off a strong favourite and ended up being proved right with ease as she quickened clear in a steadily-run race that might not have suited a couple of her opponents, the timefigure a modest 66. In contrast, Quinault and Grey’s Monument both backed up their very smart performances to a large degree on time.

Quinault took the listed Garrowby Stakes at York in a career-best 110 and can surely win at Group Three level at least, while Grey’s Monument took an Ascot handicap in 106 just short of the 108 he posted when winning a Listed race at Kempton in December and will be back at that level soon.

When I was responsible for handicapping two-year-olds at Timeform it always struck me the ‘racing’ seasons at juvenile level were clearly distinguishable – not a lot went on in spring, the workload doubled over summer, September marked the start of ‘silly season’ when it seemed like more than half the programme book was made up of two-year-old races before things eased right off in December.

We’re now well into ‘silly season’ of course, and no less than 52 races restricted to juveniles have taken place in the first eight days of this month in Britain alone. Unsurprisingly there have been some very useful performances flying around with the two Group/Listed races at Kempton over the weekend of plenty of interest.

The Group Three Sirenia Stakes went to Gimcrack third Symbol of Strength who was well rated by Tom Marquand in midfield before coming with a sustained run to score in a 93 timefigure, but I’d be more than happy to given another chance to the physically impressive runner-up Jouncy who was equipped with a first-time visor back in trip after finishing seventh in the Acomb last time out but had to work hard to get to the front after diving left from his outside stall yet was still travelling best of all over a furlong out.

Best of the two-year-olds last week

Up at Haydock Luther was a good winner of the Ascendant Stakes. Spoken of in very complimentary tones by trainer Charlie Fellowes afterwards, the son of Frankel, who’d done well to get as close as he did to the more experienced and prominently-ridden New Century off a slow pace in the Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury last time, overcame trouble in running to draw clear decisively and upgrade his 94 time-rating to something very close to his 102 form rating once sectionals are included. Runner-up Qilin Queen also deserves credit not only for taking on the colts but also for making up a lot of ground too from off the pace and can score at this level against her own sex soon.

Amiloc, who defied a penalty to win a Kempton novice in a 96 timefigure upgraded to around 105 after sectional upgrades, Defence Minister (98 overall timerating), Silver Peak (96), Cathedral (85) and First Instinct (100) are all other recent maiden or novice winners we will hear more about this autumn while Law Of Design and Calla Lagoon also recorded high timefigures at Ascot (93 and 88 respectively) last weekend.

More from Graeme North

• March close to O'Brien best
• City Of Troy timefigure only ordinary
• Anniversary form must be followed
• Babouche looks the real deal

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