Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis from Kempton and Ireland

Last week when I was in France I was asked somewhat randomly by one of my (French) neighbours, though perhaps not totally unexpectedly given the enduring French interest in the subject, where I was and what I was doing on the day that Princess Diana died.

Whether I quite got across that I was stretched out on the floor at my home in Thornton in Bradford compiling a placepot for the following day’s meeting at Hamilton Park I’m not entirely sure but my neighbour, a keen racegoer himself though mostly at trotting meetings, seemed to get the gist.

After pressing me for a tip at the day’s main meeting at Cagnes-sur-Mer, he asked me how I got interested in horseracing. I wasn’t able to give him such a precise answer but it had much to do with my grandfather initially instilling in me a competence at cribbage, a card game not played much nowadays, at a very early age that then sparked an interest in both the daily greyhound and horseracing cards published in the Daily Express he was never seen without.

As well as that, however, I remember very well copies of the racing pages of the Daily Telegraph stuffed down the sides and back – don’t ask me why – of the sofas and armchairs dotted around our living room. Two horses from those racecards in that early seventies, probably because their form figures were nearly always 111111, remain imprinted vividly in my mind; the first was the 1974 Champion Hurdler Lanzarote who broke a leg in the 1977 Cheltenham Gold Cup and the other, also trained by Fred Winter, was Pendil who in between twice winning the King George VI Chase at Kempton was just touched off in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Their legacy at Kempton Park endures with races named in their honour. The ‘Lanzarote’ was for a long time what used to be known as a ‘Showcase’ handicap hurdle, oddly enough resulting in a dead heat at Carlisle in the only year this century (2006) when it was run away from Kempton, but was upgraded to listed status in 2013; the ‘Pendil’, formerly known as the Galloway Braes after another King George winner, has always been a race of greater importance with its long list of winners including such familiar names as Remittance Man, Land Afar, Captain Chris, Frodon, Cyrname and Pic d’Orhy.

As that list suggests, champion trainer Paul Nicholls has won it a fair number of times – fourteen times, in fact, including five times on the trot between 2006 and 2010 and six times since 2017. While reports of the race’s demise (as well as his own) might be premature and exaggerated – after all, Pic d’Orhy’s winning performance in 2022 was worth 158 according to Timeform, 4lb higher than the second best winning performance this century – the latest winner Rubaud’s winning performance only came in at 139 which is the second lowest since 2008 after the Killala Quay in 2016 whose only top-three placing in fourteen subsequent races was a win in a veterans chase at Doncaster.

Rubaud’s timefigure (138) was almost identical to his performance rating which was slightly underwhelming given his second place behind L’Eau Du Sud in the Kingmaker at Warwick as well as the fact he took the shortest route round and was also receiving 5lb from more than half his rivals. Perhaps that strong finish in the Kingmaker behind the tying-up L’Eau Du Sud took its toll given it had been just two weeks earlier but excuse or not his mid-race sectionals paint no more of a rosier picture either, covering the distance from the final fence before the winning line on the first circuit to the third-last slower than the 125-rated Bad managed in the three-mile handicap later in the card.

Hardly a cheerleading endorsement for L’Eau Du Sud who still looks short in the market to me at 5/1 for an Arkle.

Two other Ladbrokes-sponsored races at Kempton on Saturday carried Graded status, the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.

The former still retains, albeit one that became increasingly questionably even several years back, a reputation as a guide to the Triumph Hurdle and though it might not be relevant directly this year – only two of the five that ran are entered – it might be indirectly given the horse who finished second to current Triumph favourite Lulamba at Ascot, French Derby fifth Mondo Man, took his chance.

As it was, he managed only third after once pulling hard once again, but a win since for third-placed Viyanni at Ludlow as well as a much improved effort from sixth-placed Moutarde (at least before he departed at the last at Musselburgh) suggests the Ascot form is solid enough if not spectacular with the Ascot fifth St Pancras improving past Mondo man at Kempton.

Five-year standards suggest Mambonumberfive’s winning performance in form terms should be somewhere in the region of 122-132; the clock suggests it should be a whole lot less, however, with the winning timefigure coming in at just 91 and a time from three out to the line (as well as from the last to the winning line) slower than the following Dovecote which had been run at a far stronger initial pace.

The Dovecote has been almost as insignificant a race on occasions in recent years as the Adonis but the winner of the race this year, Tripoli Flyer, posted a well-above average performance for the race, not just on performance ratings but on the clock too where his 143 timefigure is the best in the history of the race since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps.

Runner-up Miami Flyer had finished second in the Formby pea-souper at Aintree, so the fact that he pushed the overrated Potter’s Charm to two lengths that day yet couldn’t land a glove on Tripoli Flyer after the last at Kempton suggests the Fergal O’Brien’s inmate shouldn’t be taken lightly if he turns up at Cheltenham.

Second to his stablemate and exciting prospect Horacles Pearl (who is entered at Newbury on Friday) in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree at last year’s Grand National meeting, Tripoli Flyer has lost just one over hurdles when second to Jurancon at Chepstow back in November with the third over forty lengths behind. That makes David Pipe’s inmate look well handicapped off a mark of 127 should he go to either Newbury or Kelso on Saturday.

Meanwhile, in Ireland...

Across at Fairyhouse, a low-key card saw just the one Graded event staged, the Bobbyjo Chase, a race which has become something of a Grand National Trial in recent years with I Am Maximus in 2024 and Any Second Now in 2022 among its recent winners and its latest, Nick Rockett, certain to get a run at Aintree if that’s the aim seeing as he’s rated officially 163, meaning only I Am Maximus and Royale Pagaille have higher BHA ratings.

Seventh in the Irish National last year before finishing third in the bet365 Gold Cup off a mark of 147, Nick Rockett looks on the face of things to have improved significantly this season but his win at Gowran in desperate conditions (timefigure 147) was helped by the favoured route close to the outside rail he took there and for all he had too much speed here for largely either more exposed or deteriorating rivals at the end of a steadily-run race (timefigure 85) rather disappointingly he didn’t run any faster from three out to the winning line than his stablemate and Timeform 135-rated mare Spindleberry managed in the Listed Mares Novice Chase later in the afternoon.

None of that adds up to an official rating of 163 for me (he’s 161 in Ireland) regardless of Spindleberry (she’s 142 in Ireland) possibly being too low and current quotes of 14/1 look on the skinny side.

The aforementioned Spindleberry split the talented pair Jade de Grugy and Jetara in the Grade 1 Honeysuckle Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse’s Easter meeting last March when the pair were fifteen lengths clear before a bad error four out ended her chances at Punchestown in May, and I've no doubt she can reach the same sort of level over fences, making the most here of the 10lb she received from Bioluminescence but winning so easily (still hardly off the bridle between the last two while her opponents were all being hard ridden) that she could probably have won off level weights. Bioluminescence’s effort was hardly a big boost for the Brown Advisory claims of Dancing City to whom she had conceded 1lb yet only got beaten just over three lengths at Naas in January.

The aforementioned Jade de Grugy who suffered her only defeat last season in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham when fourth after taking a much different home straight course to the trio (Golden Ace, Brighterdaysahead and Birdie Or Bust) that beat her had been in action earlier in the week at Punchestown where she won the Grade 3 Quevega Mares Hurdle by six lengths from Mousey Brown conceding upwards of 9lb all round.

Sent off at 5/6, it was a straightforward success in a 121 timefigure by six lengths over an eight-year-old rival whose win two starts back came off an official mark of 116 so didn’t tell us anything new about her other than she’s trained on satisfactorily with the distance of the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham this time around sure to suit her much better than the two miles the Dawn Run did last year.

The same Punchestown card also featured a win for William Munny, second to Kawaboomga and Workahead on his last two outings, in the listed Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle. Timeform returned his timefigure as 141 which would suggest significant improvement but he was slower from all of the last three hurdles to the line than Jade De Grugy despite racing over a four-furlong shorter trip and being the opening race over hurdles on the card too so it remains to be seen exactly how much improvement this run (sent off odds on) really produced.

Sunday’s Graded action was shared across Naas, where conditions deteriorated so much that the two chases that were supposed to end the card were abandoned, and Fontwell where conditions were much slicker, relatively at least. Bacchanalian set a very strong pace in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle and won unchallenged but a final section (three out to the line) five seconds slower than the handicap won by a 112-rated animal over the same distance an hour later wouldn’t want him being turned out again too quickly I’d have thought.

The other Grade 3, the Michael Purcell over two and a half miles, produced a relatively quick finish with Jacob’s Ladder outspeeding Joystick by three lengths. Fontwell’s main race, the Star Sports National Spirit Hurdle, went to Nemean Lion in a 149 timefigure, a career best by 5lb.

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