Ben Linfoot reflects on Gemirande's big Cheltenham win for the on fire Venetia Williams and wonders who her next big winner will be.
Royale Pagaille, Frero Banbou, Djelo and now Gemirande. The big weekend winners keep on flowing for Venetia Williams who is in one of those periods of red-hot form where you could follow the yard blind. Just back Venetia blind, if you will.
Indeed, if you cottoned on early and backed all of Venetia’s runners since the start of November you would be looking at a profit of +£10.04 after Gemirande and that’s at starting price to a stake of £1. There have been gambles, Gemirande the latest as he halved in price from overnight odds of 11/1.
As systems go it’s not a bad one. Knowing when the yard go off the boil is key. Last season an equally fruitful November and December was the prelude to a very quiet January and February. At the moment the Venetia train looks to be one that isn’t stopping.
Gemirande was simply too good for his rivals in the Nyetimber December Gold Cup. Jockey Charlie Deutsch, sweating off 5lb in 24 hours to do his minimum weight of 10 stone 2lb rode an excellent race, setting his stall out, slowing it down, coming home strongly.
They had to dance to his tempo and those that went with him early – the likes of Stage Star and Il Ridoto – soon cried off. It was left to Madara to lay down the final, and only, challenge, but after a mid-air tussle at the second last there was only going to be one winner.
Gemirande was too strong, going away again at the finish, the eight-and-a-half lengths back to the third, last year’s winner, Fugitif, likely to force the handicapper into promoting the eight-year-old to a mark in the low to mid 140s.
“We don’t do long-term targets, this was a good enough one,” Williams said afterwards, leaving us to do the guesswork.
So here goes.
Gemirande screams TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival doesn’t he? His new mark will probably see him at number five or six in the weights for that race and his trainer has won it three times with Idole First, Something Wells and Carrickboy.
Proven on the New Course, proven fresh and not a particularly obvious one to relish deep midwinter ground, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him kept back for the Plate. It’s also no surprise that the sole bookmaker betting on the race has him priced up as the 7/1 favourite.
If that doesn’t float your boat given the race is three months away, what does Venetia have closer to Christmas?
The obvious answer is the King George VI Chase with both Royale Pagaille (33/1) and L’Homme Presse (11/1) pencilled in for the Kempton feature.
You wouldn’t want to put a line through either of those horses at those prices given their trainer’s current mood and both have acquitted themselves well in the race before.
Royale Pagaille was second in the 2022 King George, albeit when 14 lengths behind Bravemansgame, while L’Homme Presse was three lengths adrift in the same race when unseating Deutsch at the final fence.
It took L’Homme Presse a long time to get over that and he wasn’t seen for 391 days, but his return at Lingfield in January when beating subsequent Ryanair Chase winner Protektorat was a statement of intent and another example of Williams readying one off a long absence.
Not seen since his fourth to Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, his 286-day absence come Boxing Day should not put off punters and Williams reported him to be on track for the race after a piece of work Saturday morning.
The enigmatic Frero Banbou broke a losing sequence of 17 when landing the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on December 30 and the handicapper reacted by raising him 7lb to 134.
Who knows where he could end up? He’s still not badly treated if the confidence is back and he could try and go one better in the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase over the course and distance Gemirande won over this afternoon.
Then there’s Djelo who looked a big improver on his second start back when slamming the aforementioned Protektorat in the Peterborough Chase just last week. He could be a top-notcher. Could he be a Ryanair Chase horse? He could be.
And what about Fontaine Collonges? She looked better than ever, off the back of 315 days off the track, when sluicing up in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase at Haydock on Betfair Chase day.
Related to a Grand National winner in Neptune Collonges, she could have a National of her own to celebrate if things go to plan at Chepstow on December 27. 20/1, you say? While the train is on the tracks, that could be an early Christmas present.
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