2000 Guineas tips: Antepost preview ahead of the Newmarket Classic on May 1
Racing betting tips: 2021 Flat season antepost
1pt win Van Gogh in QIPCO 2000 Guineas at 20/1 (General)
Does Battleground deserve to be favourite?
Aidan O’Brien – and to a lesser extent his son Joseph – completely dominate the market for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, together the pair being responsible for four horses currently trading at single-figure prices for the first Classic of the British Flat season.
However, with Battleground the shortest of the bunch, at 9/2 in places, it’s still unclear as we enter April who the standout three-year-old miler is expected to be this year.
Battleground doesn’t appear to have the best chance on all known evidence.
Granted, he was progressive last summer and got the job done at Royal Ascot in the Chesham, before following up in the Vintage at Goodwood, while his trip to America for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf will hardly be lost on him in terms of the whole experience.
But the form of that race – in which he finished second from off the pace behind Fire At Will – doesn’t amount to much in the grand scheme of things. The winner and the third, namely Outadore, have been well held in Group Two and Listed company respectively since, and the fourth home, Jessica Harrington’s Cadillac, is reportedly staying at home to contest the Irish Guineas instead of venturing to Newmarket.
Who brings the best form to the table?
So we can pick holes in the favourite, for all that he’s clearly entitled to go on improving at three, but what about the other market principals?
The key piece of juvenile form, as is often the case going into the new campaign, looks to be the Dewhurst from Newmarket run over seven furlongs of the Guineas course on October 10, in which St Mark’s Basilica beat stablemate Wembley, with O’Brien jnr’s Thunder Moon back in third.
Thunder Moon had previously shown a bright turn of foot to beat the same Ballydoyle duo, on that occasion Wembley finishing a short-head in front of St Mark’s Basilica who was third, in the National Stakes at the Curragh.
The evidence strongly suggests that not only are they outstanding Guineas contenders, but also that there’s not much between them, which makes it devilishly difficult in confidently nailing one’s colours to the mast of any of the three, given they’re no bigger than 8/1 (St Mark’s Basilica) and 9/1 (the other pair).
Were Aidan O’Brien to throw a curveball and backtrack on plans to go straight down the Derby route with High Definition, then he’d be a fascinating runner for a yard with 10 Guineas wins on the board already, though it looks highly unlikely he’ll take part at this point.
Could the Autumn Stakes hold the key?
Charlie Appleby may be in charge in terms of the home defence, with One Ruler and Master Of The Seas both worthy of respect.
Master Of The Seas is clearly talented but is one I’d be against based on a tendency he has to over-race in the early stages. It was in clear evidence again when he was turned over by stable companion Naval Crown in the Meydan Classic in February, and while the run is expected to have brought him on physically (Appleby’s Masar started his Classic-winning campaign with defeat in Dubai), he won’t get away with being anything like as keen at Newmarket.
One Ruler – who has remained on these shores during the winter – probably enhanced his reputation in spite of defeat when simply outstayed by the stoutly-bred Derby prospect Mac Swiney on very testing ground in Doncaster’s Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at the end of October.
That race has been a good springboard for Guineas horses (and winners) down the years and he’s a cast-iron stayer with top middle-distances pretensions later in the year, but I’m far from convinced he should be half the price of VAN GOGH, and circling back to team O’Brien looks the sensible approach to a bet at this stage.
The formbook says One Ruler clearly got the better of Van Gogh in the Autumn Stakes over the Guineas track and trip on October 10, with a length and three-quarters between them at the line, but the runner-up was surely at least his equal on the day given how the race panned out.
Drawn one and two respectively, One Ruler ended up on the outside of the pack as the pace increased, with Van Gogh behind several rivals having been switched quite markedly and tucked inside by Ryan Moore early on.
William Buick had a clear path to go and win the race approaching the two-furlong marker, and duly took it, but Van Gogh had nowhere to go at that point and it was several strides too late by the time he was in the clear.
He was gobbling up the ground in the final half-furlong and the son of American Pharoah just smacks of a horse who was only beginning to fill his frame in the autumn, highlighted by his subsequent four-length demolition job in the Group One Criterium International over a mile at Saint-Cloud.
The French race wouldn’t be an obvious route to Newmarket for O’Brien, admittedly, but the trainer admits it inevitably became a bit messy with the two-year-old planning in 2020. Having to pull so many out of the Arc meeting due to the fears over contaminated feed can’t have helped either, but the Autumn Stakes has always had a reputation as a good Classic trial, right from Nashwan winning the very first edition.
More recently, subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather took top spot in 2012, Leger hero Kingston Hill won in 2013, and in 2018 French Guineas winner Persian King beat O’Brien's English Guineas winner Magna Grecia, with the St James's Palace winner Circus Maximum back in third.
The 2019 Autumn Stakes winner Military March was fourth in Kameko’s delayed Guineas last June, and before that in 2017 Ghaiyyath scored at HQ before unfortunately having to skip his Classic campaign due to injury.
So it wouldn't be a surprise at all if the Newmarket Group Three produced some of the better three-year-olds again this year and the fourth Megallan did his bit for the bare form on Friday with an odds-on success at Newcastle.
Who are the outsiders to consider?
Elsewhere, Jim Bolger’s Poetic Flare has already proven that some of the Dewhurst also-rans shouldn’t be totally overlooked, having emerged from that race to win the Group Three Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown later the same month.
The obvious ones on that score are Richard Hannon-trained pair Etonian and Chindit, the latter looking the most talented of the two. He was 9/2 for the Dewhurst having won his first three starts but the switch from decent ground to soft conditions, coupled with a far from smooth passage through the race, probably contributed to him coming up well short behind St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley.
His Ascot form, when beating Cobh and Navan Crown in a Listed race during July, worked out strongly and it looks like he’s bound for the tried-and-tested Hannon prep in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury.
There is loads of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree but having shown so much raw speed the idea that he could turn out to be more of a sprinting three-year-old is just about enough to put me off backing him at 20s as well, but if he wins the trial no doubt connections won’t resist a crack at the big one before potentially dropping back for the Commonwealth Cup in the summer.
As for relative unknowns who could be given some semblance of a chance, Royal Champion would be near the top of the list, though at 33/1 he’s hardly screaming value as a once-raced maiden winner going up against a bunch of blue-bloods with top-class seasoning under their belts.
Roger Varian’s son of Shamardal is choicely-bred himself, being a half-brother to Outbox, and is bound to stay longer distances in time, while there was plenty to like about his debut success in the Plus 10 Newmarket maiden won by Telescope, Ghaiyyath and Kick On in recent seasons.
He handled the dip really professionally for a newcomer and was really strong at the line still despite Toromona (unraced since) closing on him in the dying strides. The third, fifth and sixth have all won races since, albeit at a much lower level, and Royal Champion is reported to be heading for the Feilden Stakes at the Craven meeting.
It’ll be fascinating to see how he goes over nine furlongs there, but for the time being it's Van Gogh who ticks all the boxes including winning form at a mile, something O'Brien's last two Guineas winners had as juveniles, plus the relatively juicy antepost price when it come to his connections.
Published at 1515 BST on 03/04/21
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