Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Investec Derby day selections

Recommended Bets: Value Bet Selections

1pt win Mister Blue Sky in 2.00 Epsom at 12/1 

1pt e.w Sign Of The Kodiac in 3.45 Epsom at 40/1

1pt win Excessable in 3.45 Epsom at 16/1

1pt e.w Khalidi in 4.30 Epsom at 25/1

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The build-up to the 238th Investec Derby at Epsom has not been without its controversy, but come 4.30 on Saturday afternoon all the talk of no hopers and inexperienced jockeys will have stopped as we pause to watch and discover this year’s champion.

It’s been well documented there has been no outstanding contender to emerge from the trials this year and when that is the case usually it makes sense to turn to Classic form in a bid to try and unearth the Derby winner.

The problem with that is this year’s Guineas horse, Eminent, was only sixth at Newmarket and he’s pretty short at 7/1 after what was ultimately a disappointing effort on the Rowley Mile, even when you take into account excuses such as the unsatisfactory gallop.

Those above him in the betting, Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman, are probably the most likely winners but both have questions to answer.

Can Cliffs Of Moher improve enough from an ordinary Dee Stakes victory to win a Derby? Will Cracksman, from a family of milers on his dam’s side, stay the trip?

Aidan O’Brien dominated the trials and Cliffs Of Moher has emerged as his number one pick. The Ballydoyle maestro was adamant at Chester that this horse badly needed the run and if he does improve significantly, he’s the one they all have to beat.

As for Cracksman, his trial form has been well advertised by Permian, but that was a slowly-run race and I’m far from convinced he’ll stay the distance. He might not have to, he looks one of the classier options in what looks a winnable Derby after all, but at 4/1 he’s easily passed over.

With all this in mind I’m fairly sure there is some each-way value to be had in the race. Settling on one hasn’t been easy, though, with Venice Beach, Douglas Macarthur and Crowned Eagle all considered, while Dubai Thunder is really interesting even if I couldn’t argue a value case at 14/1 for a once-raced maiden winner in the Derby.

Eventually I settled on KHALIDI at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3 generally – look out for extra place offers from your bookie, with Sky Bet paying five places 1/5 the odds including on this horse at the price).

I’m not sure even John Gosden wanted to supplement this horse for the Derby, but his owner has shelled out the £85,000 to get him in the race and the more I watch his win at Goodwood the more I’m convinced it could be money well spent.

The Cocked Hat Stakes hasn’t unearthed a Derby winner since Troy in 1979, but it has been a good place guide in recent years at least, with third-place Derby finishers Rewilding and Storm The Stars coming out of the Goodwood trial.

The good thing is he handled that downhill course just fine. In fact, fine is an understatement as he broke the course record, winning by five lengths eased down under a 3lb penalty for his Feilden win.

His stablemate, Monarchs Glen, did tee things up for him nicely by scorching off in front – not by design presumably – but still, this was an impressive career-best effort and it shows he’s bounced back from a below-par performance at Newmarket on Guineas weekend.

Well beaten by Permian that day, I don’t think it was his true running, but he should be much happier over the Derby course and distance judging by his victory at Goodwood last time.

By a Derby winner, High Chaparral, out of a Cape Cross mare, there’s plenty to like about him and he looks sure to thrive granted a truly-run race, which this should be with so many from Godolphin and Ballydoyle in the field.

I do think he’s the most likely dark horse lurking in the shadows, possibly taking the bookmakers by surprise a little because of his unexpected supplementary entry. In what looks an open year, he looks worth a small each-way investment.

Earlier on the Derby card they go hell for leather over the fastest five furlongs in the game in the Investec Dash and as usual luck in running will play a huge part.

A stands’ side draw is often where you want to be, but it can get congested on the rail with countless hard-luck stories down the years and there are sure to be some more added this weekend.

One thing to note is the three lightning-quick-out-of-the-stalls horses are all drawn low on the far side: Caspian Prince, A Momentofmadness and El Astronaute. This could make things interesting.

Whether they get out and pull the low numbers over to the stands’ side or lead on the far side is in the hands of the jockeys, but there’s a good chance being drawn low won’t be so much of a disadvantage this year, just as it wasn’t for horses like Desert Law and Stone Of Folca in recent renewals.

With that in mind I quite like the each-way 40/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5 Betfair Sportsbook 1/4 1,2,3,4 or 33s generally) about James Given’s SIGN OF THE KODIAC.

This horse is 2lb wrong as he’s dropped down to 89 after his Ascot defeat and he races off 91 here, but that small disadvantage is fully factored into his price as is the perceived draw bias.

It’s worth looking past those factors as it’s only a few starts since he beat Gordon Lord Byron at Dundalk and that horse boosted the form with an evergreen win in a Group Two at the Curragh last weekend.

The thing I like about Sign Of The Kodiac is that he’s racked up plenty of experience for a four-year-old and he shaped really nicely on Goodwood’s downhill sprint course in a hot three-year-old handicap last season.

That bodes well, as does the continuing good form of his stable, while the icing on the cake is the application of first-time blinkers.

He’s a quick horse anyway but the headgear could well help him maintain his effort all the way to the line. It could be a secret weapon Given’s been waiting to employ, too, as his sire, Kodiac, won a handicap by three lengths when he ran in blinkers for the first time.

There were plenty of others on the Dash shortlist including Boom The Groom and Olivia Fallow, but the other one I want on side is Tim Easterby’s EXCESSABLE at 16/1 (General).

Easterby won this race with Captain Dunne in 2011 and he has a good chance of winning another with this fellow who has shown much improved form this season since being gelded.

He was a 94-rated horse as a juvenile but seemed to lose his way last season, although he showed some natural speed to win a handicap at Ripon in August.

This season he looks back to his best, however. Third on his comeback on the all-weather at Newcastle on his first start since being gelded, he’s two from two on turf since then and he’s only up 9lb to 87 on the back of those victories.

Drawn towards the stands’ side in 13, hopefully Rob Hornby can get him rolling pretty early and he could do, as this horse looked pretty pacey when winning in a relatively fast time at Redcar.

Finally, Sylvester Kirk’s MISTER BLUE SKY shouldn’t be the outsider of the field in the opening Investec Private Banking Handicap at 12/1 (General).

Kirk has an incredible record in this race having won it three times from just five representatives in the last eight years and he’ll have had his eye on this contest for some time again.

Mister Blue Sky is 2lb out of the handicap but plenty of improvement is expected now he steps up in trip, as there’s plenty of stamina on his dam’s side, while his good form around Goodwood gives hope that he’ll handle the track just nicely.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +391.74pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1710 BST on 02/06/17.