Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival day two tips

Value Bet Selections: Cheltenham Day Two

0.5pt e.w. Brelade in 1.30 Cheltenham at 33/1

1pt win Royal Vacation in 2.10 Cheltenham at 12/1

1pt win Taquin Du Seuil in 2.50 Cheltenham at 22/1

0.5pt e.w. Carrig Cathal in 2.50 Cheltenham at 40/1

1pt e.w. Dino Velvet in 4.50 Cheltenham at 25/1

Day-one hotpot Altior was likely to have been given a real test before Charbel fell at the second last on Tuesday and all eyes are on another top-notch two-miler on Wednesday as Douvan gets to strut his stuff in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Is this his biggest test so far? Possibly not considering what perennial bridesmaid Sizing John has achieved since he dodged Douvan and went up in trip, but this is the day the apple of Willie Mullins’ eye gets the opportunity to win his first open championship at Cheltenham.

No problems are expected on that score. He’s going for his 14th win from 14 attempts for Mullins and the closest any horse has go to him so far is the three-and-quarter lengths that were between him and Alpha Des Obeaux in a novice hurdle at Punchestown a couple of years ago.

Alpha Des Obeaux goes in the RSA Chase on the same card and he has a fine chance for Mouse Morris, a trainer who tends to get his horses primed to the minute for the Festival.

He’ll have to be primed after bursting blood vessels when pulled up last time at Leopardstown, though, and while it will be no surprise to see him bounce back he’s been so well backed in recent weeks that all the juice has gone out of his price now.

I’m also far from convinced that favourite Might Bite will be suited by Cheltenham. He’s been well beaten on his last two runs at the track and looked at home at the right-handed and flat Kempton Park where he would’ve bagged a Grade One but for a dramatic last-fence mishap.

Yet the horse that benefitted that day, ROYAL VACATION, continues to be underestimated at the 12/1 (general, 14s Paddy Power) available ahead of the RSA.

Perhaps it was because he was undoubtedly lucky to win the Kauto Star after Might Bite’s fall, but he’s improved since then and the form of his win in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on trials day is beginning to look good.

Singlefarmpayment was brought down at the 12th fence in that contest and, while it was too far out to establish if he’d have given Royal Vacation a race, he proved himself a talented novice when running Un Temps Pour Tout so close in Tuesday’s Ultima Handicap Chase.

Yet Royal Vacation won very easily on trials day, jumping and galloping his way to an eight-length success off a mark of 143. Up 9lb to 152, he’s bang in the mix on ratings and everything he’s done as a chaser suggests three miles on better ground around Cheltenham will be ideal.

He stayed on well when beaten over two miles and five at Ascot, while his strength and stamina qualities came to the fore in testing conditions at Cheltenham last time. Drying ground is no bother to him, though, and in an average-looking RSA the double-figure prices are attractive.

Gordon Elliott had a great start to the meeting with Tiger Roll and Apple’s Jade winning, while Labaik caused a shock in the Sky Bet Supreme under Jack Kennedy. That pair could well combine again in Wednesday’s opener, the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle, with BRELADE (33s generally).

This horse had options in the handicaps so it’s interesting Elliott has gone the novice route with him and improvement could be forthcoming now he steps up in trip to two miles and five.

His dam was a Grade One winner over 2m6f in France and he shaped as though a longer distance would be ideal when he was ridden prominently in the Grade One Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown last time over 2m2f.

Bacardys was ridden with restraint that day and stayed on well to land the prize, but Brelade was in there fighting jumping the last and he was only beaten three lengths at the line. Slightly different tactics could easily see that form reversed and the price discrepancy between the two – Bacardys is 100/30 and Brelade is 33/1 – doesn’t add up.

Brelade has run two solid races at the top level on his last two starts, he loved the good ground in his bumper days and is flying and he’s massively under the radar at the prices here. 

Elliott could have another good day as his Tombstone is justifiably a relatively short price for the Coral Cup, a mark of 149 looking highly workable judging on his fourth behind Tuesday winners Altior and Buveur D’Air in last year’s Supreme.

His trainer has a very strong hand with Automated also well-fancied but I wouldn’t want to discount his third string CARRIG CATHAL either and at 40/1 he’s worth a small each-way bet.

The six-year-old sneaks in right at the bottom and he did only run three days ago at Naas, but he shaped like a well-treated horse that day when travelling through the contest strongly only to be denied by Rathpatrick in the run for the line.

His British mark is only 3lb higher than the one he raced off in Ireland on Sunday so looks pretty well-handicapped on that evidence and the nature of this race, big-field, strong gallop, looks sure to suit.

He went well on good ground when learning his trade as a hurdler and he was sent off 2/1 favourite when giving 4lb to Peregrine Run at the start of the season. Peter Fahey’s horse beat him by eight lengths that day, but a 10lb pull here gives the selection a chance and he is four times the price.

Denis O’Regan is always a positive jockey booking, especially in a race of this nature, and I’m not sure his late entry into the event as the last horse to sneak in has been fully taken into account by the market.

The other one I can’t leave out of calculations is Jonjo O’Neill’s TAQUIN DU SEUIL at 22/1 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook).

O’Neill’s Go Conquer ran a good race in the Ultima on Tuesday and there’s a few of his handicappers that are worth keeping an eye on this week after a quiet winter – and Taquin Du Seuil is certainly one of them.

Perhaps he shouldn’t be labelled a handicapper, he is a dual-Grade One winner (including at the Festival in the JLT) after all, and he has run at the top level the last two times he has been seen, both occasions over fences, when he was fifth in the Lexus and fourth behind Cue Card at Ascot.

Those were good efforts that suggest he’s holding his form, which is worth plenty when you consider he races off a 12lb lower mark of 148 over hurdles.

He has got some good recent hurdling form to his name, too. His seasonal reappearance, a warm-up for the BetVictor Handicap Chase that he won at Cheltenham off 156, came at Chepstow and he was an eye-catching three-length sixth behind Ballyoptic.

That race has worked out well all season and off the same hurdling mark it’s telling that O’Neill has gone for the Coral Cup with him when he had so many options over fences.

Even with Tombstone in the field he could be the best-handicapped horse in the race and at 22/1 I want him on side.

Finally, Alan King’s DINO VELVET looks underestimated at 25/1 (general ¼ 1,2,3,4) in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. 

King had a disappointment with Yanworth in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday but he’s got a very strong team of juveniles, headed by Triumph Hurdle fancy Master Blueyes on Friday.

Dino Velvet has form with some of the best in the division, as he was in the mix if admittedly beaten when falling at the last behind Defi Du Seuil at the Open meeting back in November, while he was tested in Grade One waters behind the same horse at Chepstow the following month.

A win at Sandown and seconds behind the talented Don Bersy and the thrown-in I’m A Game Changer compliment those efforts and he’s racked up plenty of experience so far this campaign.

Back at Cheltenham, back on better conditions, off a mark of 125, he can go well and rates a fair bet at a big price in what is again a very tough puzzle to try and crack.

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +382.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

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Posted at 1710 GMT on 14/03/17.