Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets for the November Handicap at Doncaster and the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on Saturday.
The Betfred November Handicap brings the curtain down on another Flat season at Doncaster on Saturday and John Gosden could well sign off in style after a stellar campaign.
Enable and Cracksman might be safely tucked away for the winter, but Royal Line represents the Newmarket handler in the old maroon and white Sheikh Mohammed colours and the three-year-old has a fine chance of winning his third race in four starts.
The most unexposed and progressive horse in the field, he paid the price for doing battle with Time To Study a long way from home at Newbury last time and it’s no surprise to see him chalked up as the 6/1 favourite here.
The only issue I have with him is his inexperience and whether he’s battle-hardened enough to win what will be a tough and testing race up the Town Moor straight on Saturday afternoon.
With that in mind I’d rather have a go at something at a bigger price and I really like the look of the horse right at the foot of the weights, AL DESTOOR, at 33/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, BetVictor), for Jennie Candlish.
This son of Teofilo, who started life at John Oxx’s, is completely unexposed over a mile-and-a-half on soft ground, but there are plenty of clues that suggest they could be his optimum conditions.
His career-best run came at Chester in June when he hosed up over 10 furlongs on soft ground, staying on strongly to the line, while he didn’t run far off that form on much better ground over 1m4f at Hamilton next time.
Then, off a mark of 91, he ran well at Doncaster behind Erik The Red back at 10 furlongs, not quite having the pace of the first two home but he battled on well for third. That form worked out well, too, with three of the five horses he beat that day winning subsequently.
Last time he ran another belter at Chester when second in heavy ground and he just loves these autumn conditions, as he showed at the backend of last season when winning and running well at Nottingham and Pontefract respectively.
He stays well enough to have been tried six times over hurdles but has hardly run over 1m4f, especially in testing ground, and now he gets a go at such a test in a big field from the foot of the weights he's of major interest.
Franny Norton is booked for the job and at 33s he looks underestimated.
Al Destoor has a perfectly fine middle berth in 11, but a wide draw has not been a barrier to success in this race in recent history so I also want to take a bit of the 20/1 available about Neil Mulholland’s NIBLAWI (20/1 General).
This horse breaks from 21, but he’s going to be held up by 7lb claimer Jack Osborn anyway and he should relish a strong gallop on a soft surface judging by his running-on second at Ascot in the handicap that closed King George day.
You’ll remember it was soft that day as Enable stormed to victory in the big one and Niblawi did really well to finish second in his race, giving 13lb to the winner and pulling two lengths clear of the third.
He ran well in the Shergar Cup after that, too, but wasn’t so good at Haydock last time which is a slight concern.
However, that was on good ground and I’m hoping the softer conditions play to this horse’s strengths, while he’s still got potentially more improvement to come having had just four runs for his new yard.
Two of those, at Ascot, were highly encouraging and on that sort of form he’s got a good chance off a mark of 91 this weekend.
The big jumps race of the day is the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton and the first thing to note here is the unpleasant weather forecast which is predicting lots of rain.
It could be very testing ground by the time they line up for the feature and if that’s the case the one horse I’d want on my side is Venetia Williams’ YALA ENKI at 10/1 (General).
He loves really soft conditions and he goes well fresh as well, so there are plenty of ticks in the right boxes even if he will need a lifetime-best off a career-high mark of 151.
However, despite the big field there doesn’t look to be much competition for the lead in this and it’s not hard to envisage him getting into a nice rhythm up front in conditions he loves.
Finally, I also want Paul Nicholls’ MR MIX on my side at 12/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, BetVictor).
This horse won the same Wincanton race that Gentleman Jon did last year before he followed up in the Badger Ales and that he did it on his handicap debut over fences bodes well.
He’s got major room for improvement in the jumping department which may put some punters off, but I see it as a positive that he could take a big leap forward if he puts in a really good round over his fences.
The softer ground could well help him, he certainly handled such conditions in his novice hurdling days, and at 12s he’s worth chancing to follow up his recent course success off just a 5lb higher mark.
Value Bet Selections: November Handicap & Badger Ales Trophy
1pt win Niblawi in 3.15 Doncaster at 20/1
1pt win Al Destoor in 3.15 Doncaster at 33/1
1pt win Yala Enki in 3.35 Wincanton at 10/1
1pt win Mr Mix in 3.35 Wincanton at 12/1
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +378.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 10/11/17.