Ben Linfoot Value Bet: York Ebor Festival day one tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet York Day One

1pt win Soie D’Leau in 1.55 York at 18/1 - in great form, handicapper has given him a chance, it's getting towards his time of year and likely conditions right up his street

1pt win Move In Time in 1.55 York at 16/1 - his run two starts ago suggested he's still got a big pay day in him and he's another that won't mind any rain; James Doyle an interesting booking

1pt win Suegioo in 4.15 York at 25/1 - poor strike-rate but bags of ability and his new mark is very competitive, Jamie Spencer could be the perfect fit

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The Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival starts with a bang thanks to a glittering edition of the Group One Juddmonte International at 3.35.

It’s a clash of the generations, a belting re-match and a fascinating tactical battle all rolled into one and now the weather gods look like throwing another spanner in the works with rain forecast throughout Wednesday.

It’s up in the air, in more ways than one, how much rain the Knavesmire will receive on the opening day but any amount could be vital to the chances of Barney Roy, a horse that has only ever run on a fast surface.

If the ground is fine for him and James Doyle gets him into top gear early enough I think he’ll be hard to stop, but with no obvious pacemaker in the line-up it wouldn’t be a surprise if things went against him.

As for Churchill, it’s a bit of a guessing game with him. He has to bounce back from his Royal Ascot flop and do so while tackling 10 furlongs for the first time, so the most solid wager looks to be Ulysses.

Sir Michael Stoute’s horse is the one to beat on recent form after his Coral-Eclipse success and excellent second to Enable in the King George last time where he gave the superstar filly a stone.

He travels so well you’d think he’ll be able to adapt to whatever tactical situation is thrown at him and he won’t mind it if the rain gets into the ground.

It’s surprising he’s not favourite, but he might be by the off and if you are looking for a bet in the feature he’d be the way I’d be going.

Odds of around 100/30 are more than fair, but it isn’t a price for this column and the opening Symphony Group Handicap is more my cup of tea being one of those impossible-looking sprint handicaps I just can’t resist having a go at.

The possibility of rain has altered my thoughts in this as I thought Moviesta was a really good bet at 12/1 until I looked at the weather forecast.

He’s a better horse on the all-weather, particularly at Dundalk, but he ran a superb race behind Washington DC at the Curragh last time on good to firm ground.

Robbie Downey, claiming 3lb, has ridden him the last twice and clearly gets on well with him, but any amount of rain would likely hinder his chances and I’m going to have to leave him alone.

As far as early pace goes, El Astronaute and Thesme could produce a real tear up between each other on the far side and part of me thinks that might be the place to be after Flying Pursuit’s demolition job in the Sky Bet Dash.

However, there looks to be solid pace down the middle as well with A Momentofmadness, Hoof It and SOIE D’LEAU drawn centrally and the latter, trained by Kristin Stubbs, looks to have plenty in his favour at 18/1 (General).

A winner off a mark of 92 at Haydock on soft ground last September, and at Doncaster in October off 96, Soie D’Leau thrived in big-field handicap sprints at the back end of last year’s campaign.

He ran well off marks of 98 and 96 here at York at the beginning of this season, finishing a relatively close-up seventh and fifth in May. Since then he’s held his form well and the handicapper has given him a real chance dropping him to a mark of 92 again.

He’s competitive off that rating, as he’s shown on his last three runs, and now he returns to the Knavesmire off a reduced mark he could well fight off all comers down the middle of the track.

The son of Monsieur Bond certainly won’t mind any easing of the conditions and he gets on really well with Joe Fanning, who returns to the saddle.

He did only run on Saturday at Doncaster, when beaten by Desert Law, but while any rain is in Soie D’Leau’s favour it’s against Paul Midgley’s horse, and the selection gets a 6lb pull at the weights for a three-length beating.

I do want two strings to my bow in this contest and the other one I can’t resist is David O’Meara’s MOVE IN TIME, also at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral).

He’s nine-years-old now and is past his best, but I reckon he’s got one more big day in him and he has plenty in his favour on Wednesday.

Also by Monsieur Bond, he hadn’t shown anything for a good while and plummeted down the weights, but there was more than a glimmer of hope for connections when he ran a cracking race in a five-furlong handicap at York in July.

He was hampered that day and might’ve gone very close but for the interference, in the end fifth place was his only reward for being beaten less than two lengths by the winner.

In the Sky Bet Dash over six he couldn’t back up the performance, but he was far from disgraced on the stands’ side with the winner not for catching on the other rail. Beaten four lengths by the runner-up, he’s easily forgiven that run.

The good thing is the handicapper dropped him a further 2lb to 92, his lowest mark since he arrived at O’Meara’s yard four years ago.

In his second season for the trainer he was beaten a short head in this race off a mark of 103, when Blaine robbed him on the line.

He might not be as good now as he was back then, but that run two starts ago suggests he retains enough ability to be a massive player in this race off his current mark and he’s another that wouldn’t be bothered by a bit of rain.

Interestingly James Doyle is booked for the ride and he’s got a pretty decent record for O’Meara. The jockey has ridden four winners for him at 17 per cent with a £1 level-stakes profit of +£26.50.

Finally, SUEGIOO could cause a big shock at 25/1 (General) in the Fine EquinITy Handicap at 4.15.

Richard Fahey’s horse has a terrible strike-rate, winning just once from 41 starts on turf and incredibly that race was the Chester Cup.

However, he was a victim of his own success as the handicapper had him in no man’s land after that, putting him up to a mark in the 100s and eventually 109 as he performed with great credit in group races.

The problem was, he was never good enough to win at that level and it’s taken him an age for his mark to drop to something competitive.

A mark of 97, though, gives him a massive chance. He’s worth forgiving his races over two and a half miles at Ascot and Goodwood on account of the trip and in-between those he flopped on the all-weather at Newcastle.

Go back to the end of May at Haydock, however, and he ran Yorkidding, a recent winner at Musselburgh, to a head off a mark of 100 and that was his only run in a handicap over two miles on turf in ages.

He has those conditions again on Wednesday, won’t be inconvenienced by any rain and the booking of Jamie Spencer could be perfect for him.

We know he’s a bit quirky and we know he’ll be held up, but Spencer won’t be pressing the panic button too early and that could give Suegioo the chance to prove how well-handicapped he is.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +387.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

Posted at 1700 BST on 22/08/17.