Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Cheltenham November Meeting day one tips
Our flagship tipster Ben Linfoot previews day one of Cheltenham's November Meeting and he has three selections for day one.
The National Hunt season officially hits top gear this weekend with the November Meeting taking place at Cheltenham and one of the potential stars of the campaign is on show on Friday when Finian’s Oscar lines up in the Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase (2.25).
His owner Alan Potts sadly passed away this week only a few months after his wife Ann, but his family have given the go-ahead for all of his horses to run at Cheltenham over the three days and there could be two or three poignant winners in his red, green and yellow silks.
Potts’ relationship with Colin Tizzard started with a bang when both Viconte Du Noyer and Fox Norton won at this very meeting, and it looks like they were planning to better that double this time around with plenty of their big guns among the entries.
None are bigger, in terms of reputation, than Finian’s Oscar and he’s very much the one to beat in Friday’s novices’ chase, a race that has been part of the development of Cheltenham Gold Cup winners like Denman and Imperial Commander in relatively recent years.
Finian’s Oscar may well be mentioned in the same breath as such luminaries in the near future such is his potential, but he’s got a fair way to go yet and at odds-on this Friday I’m happy to take him on giving 8lb to three talented rivals.
It’s been very hard to give weight away and win in this race recently, with seven of the last eight winners getting weight from their penalised rivals, and Finian’s Oscar has no easy task on what will be his first sighting of Cheltenham.
William Henry and Movewiththetimes are both dangers, but the one that looks overpriced is Nick Williams’ COO STAR SIVOLA at 28/1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power (25/1 Betway, BoyleSports).
While William Henry is having his first start of the campaign and Movewiththetimes tries the longer trip for the first time, Coo Star Sivola arrives here with a run under his belt over a distance he’s excelled at over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
His fourth in the Martin Pipe and bloodless victory at Warwick before that were pieces of form over hurdles that were just as good, if not better, than either William Henry or Movewiththetimes achieved and it’s a bit of a head scratcher to see him priced up at such bigger odds than those rivals.
Perhaps his defeat on chasing debut at Chepstow is the reason, but that is hardly enough evidence to dismiss him readily from calculations and he ran like he needed the run in what might’ve been a hot race judging by the impressive winner Mia’s Storm.
With the size and scope to develop into a good chaser yet, Coo Star Sivola is taken to cause a real shock under Lizzie Kelly at big odds in one of the opening day highlights.
Earlier on the card the £45,000 BetVictor Handicap Chase is the feature race of the afternoon and a couple of in-form horses dominate the market in the shape of Exitas and Kapstadt.
Both look worth taking on, though, with Exitas up 10lb for his Ascot win and Kapstadt lacking experience over fences with the hurly burly of a Cheltenham handicap in mind.
Everything else has some sort of question to answer, including SHANAHAN’S TURN for Tizzard in the Potts’ colours, with a 478-day lay-off following a run of uninspiring efforts to overcome.
However, at 9/1 (General) he looks the bet as he’s very well-handicapped on his best form and we know Tizzard has had a magic touch with ex-Henry de Bromhead horses.
The Dorset handler has improved plenty from de Bromhead’s yard including the likes of Sizing Codelco, Sizing Platinum, Sizing Tennessee, Bally Longford, Solatentif and Viconte Du Noyer, the latter being the pertinent one given he won on his stable debut in a Cheltenham handicap over a completely different trip to what he’d been running over.
This drop to two miles is different for Shanahan’s Turn, too, but he’s well worth a go at the distance considering his prominent running style that served him so well when winning the 2015 Galway Plate by almost six lengths.
He runs off a mark 1lb lower than he did that day at Galway on Friday and, with the better ground in his favour, now could be the time to catch him following his long break off a much-reduced rating.
Finally, the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase and back to Williams and Kelly again who look to have a good chance of victory with AUBUSSON at 9/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook).
Five of this horse’s career starts have been at the top level and he’s still only eight, while this time last year he was running in the Hennessy where he was far from disgraced in ninth off a mark of 149.
Things haven’t gone his way since then and he’s rated 135 now in the Cross Country sphere following an unfortunate third in the Prix de l'Ecole Militaire d'Equitation at Fontainebleau on October 17.
Kelly lost her irons at the 12th in France, but still managed to coax Aubusson into third as you can see in the YouTube video below.
The JP McManus mob are obvious dangers, but this is a handicap and they all have to give plenty of weigh to the classy Aubusson, who looks well-treated enough to claim this if he takes to the course and gets a bit of luck in the run.
Value Bet Selections: Cheltenham November Meeting Day One
1pt win Shanahan’s Turn in 1.50 Cheltenham at 9/1
1pt win Coo Star Sivola in 2.25 Cheltenham at 28/1
1pt win Aubusson in 3.00 Cheltenham at 9/1
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +374.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 16/11/17.