Ben Linfoot has two Value Bet selections at Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday, including a Tom George-trained hopeful.
Value Bet Selections
1pt win Markov in 1.50 Doncaster at 7/1
1pt win O Maonlai in 3.15 Newbury at 11/1
With just 11 days to go until the Cheltenham Festival we are understandably left with some low-key action on Saturday with the feature BetBright Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster attracting just seven runners.
The ground looked untypically soft at Town Moor on Friday and while last year’s winner The Last Samuri will have no problem handling the conditions, he’ll have to be right on his A-game to give significant weight away to the likes of Definitly Red and Yala Enki on his first start since the Becher.
Yala Enki could be the one with the ground riding soft, but he’s been trimmed into a general 4/1 on Friday afternoon and that’s a price that’s nothing more than fair.
Reluctantly I’ll swerve the Grimthorpe and much of Doncaster’s undercard, too. I was going to put up Theatre Flame in the 2.25 BetBright Handicap Chase at 7/1, but that price disappeared pretty quickly and I’m less keen at the general 5s.
David Bridgwater isn’t having the best of seasons but he might’ve found a suitable opportunity for Theatre Flame here, especially with the talented Daniel Hiskett taking off 5lb.
The horse ran a good race when a close-up last of three at Leicester last time and he won well at Newbury in January. Getting a good deal of weight from everything this weekend, he should be bang there with conditions ideal.
The one I am prepared to take a chance on at Doncaster is Ben Pauling’s MARKOV in the opening BetBright Casino Handicap Hurdle (1.50) at 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, 32Red).
This horse is dead interesting stepping up in trip to three miles on his handicap debut as he’s a former pointer and bumper winner that has gradually been getting the hang of things in novice hurdles.
His last effort, at Doncaster, was by far his best run over timber as he stayed on well over two and a half miles to take third, half a length behind Wenyerreadyfreddie who won at the track on Friday.
He’s a half-brother to Willoughby Court and is related to some really strong stayers on his dam’s side, so three miles looks ideal for him both on pedigree and that encouraging effort last time.
It requires a bit of guesswork when assessing if an opening mark of 122 is on the lenient side or not, but, considering he’s 7/1 in a winnable race with plenty of improvement expected at the trip, I’m happy to take the chance.
Over at Newbury it’s the William Hill ‘High 5’ Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and course specialist O MAONLAI appeals at 11/1 (Stan James, 10/1 generally).
Tom George’s horse is an all-or-nothing type of character but he reserves his best for Newbury and he shaped pretty well in the Peter Marsh last time even if he was pulled up in the end.
A mistake at the 14th effectively ended his chance that day, but I wouldn’t be certain his new mark of 143 will prove the limit of his abilities on that evidence and, back at Newbury, he’s of interest in a race that lacks strength in depth.
Oldgrangewood is the improving form horse, but he is up 9lb for his latest win and that Wetherby race didn’t look the strongest of contests.
Contrast that to O Maonlai’s Newbury win in November where subsequent winners Fox Appeal and Henlland Harri were well beaten in behind, while several others strung out with the washing have run respectably in defeat since.
O Maonlai won like a good horse that day, jumping well and travelling effortlessly while those around him couldn’t go the gallop. That was his first start of the season, and he is a horse that goes well fresh, but there is evidence he could bounce back from that Peter Marsh disappointment last time.
At this equivalent meeting in 2015 he won the novice handicap chase by nine lengths and that came on the back of being pulled up at Ffos Las at the end of January.
He has been pulled up at Newbury before, but that was on good ground and every time he has arrived at the venue when there has been at least a bit of cut in the ground he has gone well, as two firsts and a second from three goes testify.
With conditions ideal and the George stable ticking along nicely in recent weeks, he’s taken to boost his outstanding course record even further on Saturday.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +393.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 03/03/17.