Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections for day one of Royal Ascot and he fancies three at big prices as the meeting begins with a bang.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Royal Ascot Day One
1pt win Limato in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 18/1
1pt e.w Fox Champion in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 40/1
1pt e.w Kings Shield in 4.20 Ascot at 33/1
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Scat Daddy progeny could continue their remarkable record at Royal Ascot on Tuesday as the 2018 meeting starts with its usual bang.
The ill-fated stallion has an incredible eight from 15 record at the Royal meeting with his offspring and he could easily have extended that winning number to 10 by the time the King’s Stand has been run and won just after 3.40 on day one.
Lady Aurelia is responsible for two of the eight Scat Daddy Royal Ascot winners and she goes for her third consecutive win at the meeting in the King’s Stand, while before that Sergei Prokofiev bids to justify favouritism in the Coventry Stakes.
The problem is neither of those two have been missed in the markets, but another son of Scat Daddy might’ve been in the St James’s Palace Stakes (4.20) and at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3) KINGS SHIELD looks worth an each-way bet.
The key angle with him is the ground, as this is the first time he’s encountered good to firm conditions and they really should bring out the very best in him.
A strong American pedigree suggests as much and he looked much more at home on his first two starts on the all-weather than he has at Sandown and Epsom with cut in the ground.
It’s no surprise his best form on turf came on good ground in the French Guineas and he ran a fine race at ParisLongchamp, finishing strongly for sixth, just behind Wootton and U S Navy Flag, after being short of room two out.
Those two rivals are much shorter in the betting than Kings Shield, probably on account of his below-par run at Epsom in the Surrey Stakes last time out, but the discrepancy looks too big.
He was disappointing at Epsom, granted, but the ground was soft and I think it’s worth putting a line through the run on that basis alone, while he got very sweaty beforehand as well.
He’ll need to improve to trouble the judge, but the ground can help him do that by a significant margin and this doesn’t look a vintage St James’s Palace Stakes by any means.
The presence of stablemate Without Parole is probably another reason for his big odds, but there is no reason this supposed second string should be so overlooked by the market and at 33s he’s worth an each-way play.
Earlier on it looks a good renewal of the Coventry Stakes and though I’m in no mad rush to take on Sergei Prokofiev, his presence at the top of the market, along with Calyx, means there are some fancy prices about some horses with real potential.
Kingman colt Calyx looked a horse out of the very top drawer when winning at Newmarket, but that was only nine days ago and the quick turnaround would be on my mind if I was wading into him at 5/2.
With four places available with several bookies I am prepared to take a chance on one each-way and the one I like at a huge price is Richard Hannon’s FOX CHAMPION at 40/1 (General – bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are all that price and four places).
The Hannon yard have won this race three times and since Hannon senior retired their Coventry horses have been running well with Mehmas and Eltezam finishing placed in the race in the last three years.
It’s significant, then, that Fox Champion is Hannon’s sole representative here, as he has had nine individual juvenile winners this season and none of them made the cut.
Fox Champion did everything but win at Doncaster, as he was just run out of things by a nose in the dying strides. But he shaped really well, cruising through the race on ground that is likely to prove much softer than ideal, before being mugged by a horse bred for much further in the testing conditions.
He was very much the horse to take out of the race, catching the eye in a big way, and the form has been franked by the last home, New Winds, who bounced back to winning form at Haydock last Wednesday.
A 420,000 guineas purchase at the Craven breeze-ups in April, Hannon marked him out as his Coventry horse before he had even set foot on a racecourse and he has a bit of Royal Ascot pedigree in his blood as he’s related to Wokingham winner, Dandy Boy, who loved it here and won the Victoria Cup as well.
The King’s Stand is between Lady Aurelia and Battaash, the Ascot Stakes looks like a benefit for Willie Mullins and they’ve ruined the Wolferton by changing it from a quality handicap into an unexciting Listed race.
That leaves the meeting’s opener, the Queen Anne Stakes, and this is a weak renewal with no superstar milers dominating the division at present.
Benbatl is the class act in the race on his Meydan form, but he’s never looked quick enough for a mile when racing in this country and French raider Recoletos has plenty to prove himself on quick ground.
Rhododendron could well improve again from her Lockinge win, but I’m not totally convinced by that form and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was completely turned on its head on Tuesday.
The horses drawn centre to stands’ side certainly seemed to be at a disadvantage in the Lockinge and I’m very much of the opinion that 10th home LIMATO (18/1 Betfred, 16s General) will leave that performance behind on his return to Ascot.
He’ll have to, as he was way below form at Newbury, but Henry Candy’s horses weren’t running well at the time (pollen was put forward as a possible excuse) and it was Limato’s first run since October last year as well.
There is a very real possibility he might’ve needed the run, he usually does, but if he’s back to his best he’s grossly underestimated by the market.
A dual Group One winner, he arguably has the best form in the race and his top three performances have all come over seven furlongs including that Challenge Stakes win at Newmarket last October where he looked as good as ever.
His profile is not one of a regressive horse by any means and I think his best chance of staying a mile will be on a straight course on fast ground, conditions he gets on Tuesday.
He’s never run a bad race at Ascot, winning the Pavilion Stakes here before finishing second to the brilliant Muhaarar in the Commonwealth Cup in 2015, while last year he was a close-up third in the Diamond Jubilee where he traded odds-on in-running on Betfair.
James Doyle, three from four on the horse, is back in the saddle for the first time since that Commonwealth Cup defeat and, given his speed, it’s easy to envisage him travelling like the winner inside the final quarter mile.
The question mark is whether he will get home, but that is firmly factored into his price and, back at Ascot, on fast ground, with that Lockinge run under his belt, this is the best chance he’s had of staying the 1600 metres.
Posted at 1700 BST on 18/06/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +334.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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