Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets from Haydock, Goodwood and York on Saturday afternoon.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet
1pt win Rusumaat in 2.55 Haydock at 12/1
1pt win Sutter County in 3.10 Goodwood at 14/1
1pt win Line Of Reason in 3.50 York at 14/1
1pt win Alpha Delphini in 4.05 Haydock at 20/1
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Karl Burke’s superstar filly Quiet Reflection is the headline act at Haydock on Saturday afternoon as the dual Group One winner bids to maintain her perfect record at the track in the Armstrong Aggregates Temple Stakes (4.05).
The daughter of Showcasing was two from two at this course last season thanks to her high-profile victories in the Sandy Lane Stakes and the Sprint Cup but she looks vulnerable on her return to action this weekend.
Not only is she dropping back to five furlongs for the first time in seven starts, but she saddles a 5lb Group One penalty as well and the good to firm ground is also against her.
If she lines up at all (with the ground a possible reason for withdrawal) she’ll be worth taking on and main market rival Washington DC is another not to get too carried away with at cramped odds in a race like this.
He’s performed to his very best in two starts this season, but he’s 0-12 in group contests now and that has to be a concern if you’re taking odds as short as 7/2 about him, while his far-side draw might not be ideal either.
In other words, this race looks much more open than the market suggests and the one that looks overpriced is Bryan Smart’s ALPHA DELPHINI at 20/1 (Bet Victor, 16s generally).
The son of Captain Gerrard was a rapid improver as a five-year-old last season, which wasn’t the greatest of surprises considering he comes from the same late-maturing family as Tangerine Trees who improved remarkably on his previous form at the age of six.
There could be even more to come from Alpha Delphini this campaign with that in mind and he was far from disgraced on his seasonal reappearance in the Palace House, when he was eighth behind Saturday’s opponents Washington DC, Goldream, Kachy and Priceless.
Drawn on the far side away from the action, he was awkwardly away and had to do much of his racing solo while the race developed towards the stands’ side. Considering that, he did well to be beaten just four-and-a-quarter lengths and it wasn’t a bad platform to build from at all.
While he was poorly positioned last time, things should pan out much better for him on Saturday. Drawn centrally, there is loads of pace around him with Thesme and Take Cover to his left and Kachy and Goldream to his right. The harder they go the better for Alpha Delphini as he sees out this trip really well.
It’s hard to fathom why he is twice the price of Cotai Glory, as there was a cigarette paper between the two at Newbury last September in conditions that would’ve suited Charlie Hills’ horse better.
Things didn’t go to plan for Cotai Glory in the Palace House last time either, but at 10/1 he hasn’t been missed in the market while at double the odds Alpha Delphini certainly has.
There are some good handicaps all over the place on Saturday and I like the look of a couple of Mark Johnston-trained horses, including RUSUMAAT at 12/1 (General) in the Silver Bowl at Haydock (2.55).
The negative with him is that he keeps edging up the weights for getting beat, but his form is strong and there’s reason to expect further improvement now he tackles a mile again.
He was beaten over the distance on his seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh, but was restless in the stalls that day and probably needed it. He’s got milers and horses that got further than that in his pedigree and shapes like a horse that will gallop all the way to the line over this distance at a track like Haydock.
On his penultimate start he stayed on strongly when a narrow second over seven at Chelmsford, while he battled well to regain second once headed over the same trip at Ascot last time. That form looks good and the fifth, Khafoo Shememi, hinted as much when winning at Sandown on Thursday night.
Johnston used the same Ascot race as a prep for Shebebi, running in the same Sheikh Hamdan silks, four years ago, and while that horse finished last in Berkshire, he managed to win this contest.
With top Haydock jockey Richard Kingscote booked and a good draw of five handed to a horse that likes to race prominently, he’s a good bet at 12s with the trip a likely source of improvement.
Down at Goodwood Johnston’s horses always have to be considered and there are three to choose from in the Winners Are Welcome At Matchbook Handicap (3.10).
The one I like is SUTTER COUNTY at 14/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, 12s General) with Andrea Atzeni in the saddle.
Atzeni would likely have been on Roger Varian’s favourite Horroob if he could’ve done the weight and he might get one over his boss here with track position being so important over seven furlongs at Goodwood.
While 7lb claimer David Egan is drawn wide in 12 on Horroob, Atzeni has the perfect starting berth in stall three on Sutter County and this horse’s speed should enable him to adopt a prominent position without exerting too much effort in the early stages.
Remarkably this is his handicap debut on his 13th start, but that tells you the regard in which he’s held as much as anything else and there are several bits of form that suggest he could be fairly treated off a mark of 103.
His run behind the 105-rated Second Thought is one such piece of evidence while he tried to give weight to some good sprinters over five furlongs at Hamilton last time.
That run was good but it suggested a step up in trip would be a big help. He’s related to a whole host of seven furlong winners, too, which bodes well on just his second go at the distance (was a narrow second to Second Thought on his first attempt at the trip) but his proven speed over five and six could be a vital weapon.
Finally, I’m going to plagiarise myself and tip LINE OF REASON at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, 12s General) in the Unibet Sprint Handicap at York (3.50).
I was on this horse at York’s Dante meeting but he was pulled out when the rain turned the ground soft. On Saturday he should have his conditions as long as the ground remains good to firm and the same reasoning as last time applies:
A winner at York off a rating of 92 three years ago, Line Of Reason’s hardly run off a mark in the 90s since as he’s plied his trade in Group and Listed races for the majority of that time. He was rated 111 at his best and though he’s struggled recently to get his head in front he’s looking well-handicapped again now (runs off 97 Saturday).
Last time, at Pontefract, he ran a good race in fourth behind Judicial, who won again at Chester’s May meeting, while the third, Northgate Lad, ran well on the Wednesday of the Dante Festival.
It looks good form and Line Of Reason stayed on well, probably building on his Musselburgh comeback third on his previous start.
The cheekpieces are back on for only the second time in his life and while they didn’t work the first time they were used there were extenuating circumstances; it was his first run since being gelded and first start of the season.
They’re worth another go, as his half-sister Sister Clement won in first-time cheekpieces and he looks to have fared well in the draw having landed stall one on the far side.
That’s where the significant pace looks to be with Soie d’Leau and Caspian Prince likely front runners and if he does get a nice tow into things he’s looking well-handicapped enough to take advantage.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +364.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 26/05/17.