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Ben Linfoot Value Bet selections for the Lincoln at Doncaster March 24
Horse Racing
Sat March 24, 2018 · 7y ago
Our Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot bids to start the Flat season with a bang with three big-priced selections on Lincoln day at Doncaster on Saturday.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Doncaster, March 24
1pt win Grey Britain in 3.35 Doncaster at 25/1
1pt win Bravery in 3.35 Doncaster at 18/1
1pt win Dark Devil in 2.25 Doncaster at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Flat is back, for a weekend at least, with Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting kicking off the turf season on Town Moor this Saturday afternoon.
As always, the 32Red Lincoln takes centre stage and this year’s market is dominated by a couple of four-year-olds, an age group that have done so well in this race over the years.
Since it was switched to Doncaster in 1965 a total of 25 four-year-olds have won this race from 52 renewals, including five in the last decade despite it being tougher for that age group to actually get in the contest these days.
Nowadays the consolation race, the 32Red.com Spring Mile, is the one peppered with four-year-olds that aren’t quite rated high enough to get in the main event.
That’s the case again this year, with a quartet of four-year-olds lining up in the Lincoln as opposed to 11 in the Spring Mile. However, despite this small number of four-year-olds in the Lincoln, two of that age group dominate the market in the form of Fire Brigade and Addeybb.
Both are very solid. Fire Brigade improved and improved throughout last season and he will love the likely sound gallop. With Ryan Moore booked connections mean business and the only thing wrong with him is his price in a competitive affair.
He’s outright favourite at 5/1 with Addeybb disputing second favouritism along with Lord Glitters at around 13/2. William Haggas' son of Pivotal is lightly-raced and is a player, but I’m drawn to the chances of another four-year-old that hasn’t been anywhere as well found in the market as the two at the top of the betting.
That horse is GREY BRITAIN, trained by John Ryan, and he’s well worth a bet at 25/1 (General).
Ryan has previous in the Lincoln, as he won it with Ocean Tempest in 2014, and he’s given Grey Britain a very similar preparation this season.
Ocean Tempest won the Lincoln on the back of a mixed campaign in Meydan, but that getting-fit exercise worked a treat and so it may do with Grey Britain after his two runs in Dubai earlier in the month.
Those down-the-field results on Turf and Dirt are irrelevant, but the fact he has had some match practice out in Dubai could be highly significant. Sweet Lightning, Ocean Tempest and Secret Brief have all won this race in the last seven years on the back of a Meydan prep and Oh This Is Us almost added his name to that list when he lost out by a neck last year.
Richard Hannon’s horse was the only one in the Lincoln field to have run in Meydan coming into the race 12 months ago and Grey Britain is one of two, the other being outsider London Protocol, this time around.
On top of this his form is worthy of close inspection. With a few runs under his belt in Meydan last season he returned with a good effort in Listed company before finishing a head second in a Musselburgh handicap off a mark of 97.
That’s just 2lb lower than the mark he races off on Saturday and he followed it up a few starts later with a nose victory over Desert Skyline in Listed company, a horse now rated 112 after improving for being stepped up in trip.
Grey Britain’s best effort after that came at Goodwood and it’s significant for a couple of reasons. Firstly, his close-up fourth off 99 proved he’s capable of a big effort off his current mark and, secondly, he lost to the aforementioned Addeybb by a short head giving him 6lb.
Off levels this weekend, that 6lb pull could well see him reverse the form yet he is four times the price. They look good value odds. Tactically, he could prosper too, as he likes to be up there and with fitness on his side he could well prove a tough nut to crack from stall 13.
Leader Writer was also high on the shortlist after his eye-catching run at Lingfield last time. Henry Spiller’s horse loves softer ground and looks to have more to give off his current mark as well, especially with the cheekpieces reapplied.
His price has contracted in recent days, though, and he has had a few issues with the starting stalls throughout his career. With a big field to load here, you wouldn’t want him getting tetchy down at the start.
So, he was the last one off the shortlist, leaving Grey Britain and last year’s winner BRAVERY as my two against the field. At 18/1 (General), David O’Meara’s second string simply looks too big as he bids to retain his title.
Granted, history is against him. Only two horses in the history of the race have won back-to-back Lincolns, the last one being Babur in 1957-58.
However, Lincoln winners have run well coming back to the race in recent years. Brae Hill almost won back-to-back renewals in 2013 and both Sweet Lightning and Gabrial were placed having already won the race previously.
And not many Lincoln winners come back the following year off 5lb lower than when they won it. Yet that is precisely what has happened with Bravery and that’s despite him rediscovering his form at the back end of last season.
He went off the boil in the middle of his 2017 campaign, yet he ended it with a second in a 20-runner-handicap at York, a two-length defeat to Fire Brigade at Leicester (has a 9lb pull at the weights with him on Saturday) and a close-up fifth of 19 here at Doncaster over an inadequate seven furlongs in soft ground.
They are not the performances of a regressive horse and, back at the scene of his greatest success off a lenient mark, he could well go in again.
Last year he was drawn on the stands’ side yet was switched to the far side thanks to an inspired ride from Danny Tudhope. This year he’s drawn on the far side anyway and you would think Sam James will stay there. Hayadh and Repercussion look the pace angles on the far side and there doesn’t appear to be any bias, in that regard at least, on either side of the track.
David O’Meara’s form has to be brought up here. He’s 0 from 72 in the UK this year, but he’s had 17 seconds, 10 thirds and 11 fourths among that number. As frustrating as it must be for him, it looks an anomaly and he should be off the cold list sooner rather than later.
Finally, the aforementioned Spring Mile (2.25) with Richard Fahey’s DARK DEVIL looking overpriced at 25/1 (General).
Those relatively unexposed four-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 renewals, but on both occasions the race was won by an older horse it was trained by Fahey, with five-year-old Irish Heartbeat winning in 2010 before Brae Hill won as an eight-year-old in 2014.
Fahey has a tremendous recent record in this race as he’s had three runners-up in the last decade as well and things are made easier this year given he has just the one representative.
That is the five-year-old Dark Devil, and he looks capable off his current mark of 85. He’s won off 80 and 83, while he’s finished a close-up second off 83 and 84 in two of his last three starts as well. Last time, at Windsor in October, he was last throughout before flying home for second, where he shaped like a horse that would thrive in a strongly-run, big-field handicap.
The ground is currently described as Soft and that would be fine for him, but it dries out quickly at Doncaster and Good to Soft would be suitable for him as well, as it would be for both Lincoln selections.
Fahey reports him to have wintered well and you can be sure he’ll be tuned up for this considering the record of his handler in the race.
Taqdeer could be way ahead of his mark and could win easily despite his long absence, while What’s The Story hasn’t finished out of the frame in six starts and the jockey booking of Ryan Moore catches the eye.
A really progressive one will likely scupper Dark Devil, but if Taqdeer isn’t quite ready for this after almost 700 days off it looks wide open and Fahey’s charge looks a big price to prevail in such a scenario.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 23/03/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +364.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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