Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free horse racing betting preview and tips
After a big-priced winner last Saturday, don't miss Ben Linfoot's latest Value Bets covering the feature action at Cheltenham and Doncaster.
It’s the final Group One of the British season on Saturday as the Racing Post Trophy takes place at Doncaster and Aidan O’Brien saddles four as he aims to break that Bobby Frankel record.
He looks to have two really solid chances in Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon, too, so he could well walk away from Town Moor with an eighth Racing Post Trophy as well as the world record for Group One wins in a calendar year in the bag.
Jim Bolger’s Verbal Dexterity looks to be the main danger, while Andrea Atzeni is going for his fifth consecutive win in the race, all for different trainers, as he rides Martyn Meade’s Chilean.
He’s not without a chance, either, but Chilean does have to prove himself on this better ground after improving bundles last time when running away with a Listed contest on Haydock heavy.
A win for O’Brien or Atzeni would ensure the ITV cameras a special story, but if it doesn’t happen for the Sardinian jockey in the feature he could still enhance his brilliant Doncaster record in the supporting races, starting in the Listed Bet Through The Racing Post App Doncaster Stakes that opens the card at 1.45.
This race has a nice shape to it from a punting point of view, as the only piece of form that entitles Rebel Assault to be an 11/4 favourite is her Rockingham Stakes win at York last time.
She showed a good attitude that day, but that was her eighth run and the favourite, Shabaaby, was desperately disappointing so I’m not sure it’s form to put your faith in.
Staxton was third in that race, further evidence he hasn’t progressed from his Gimcrack fifth, and with those two in the top four in the betting I want to back something that has the potential to improve past them.
Mutaaqeb is a likely type following his debut win at Yarmouth, but at a bigger price I prefer the claims of that man Atzeni on Marco Botti’s SPEAK IN COLOURS at 8/1 generally.
Botti won this race a couple of years ago with Dhahmaan and he looks to have targeted it once again with this good-looking grey son of Excelebration, who hails from the family of the talented Tullius.
He improved from his highly-promising Nottingham debut when winning at Ascot last time, a race in which he displayed a smart turn of foot to defeat subsequent Goodwood winner Lady Dancealot.
There was talk of the Mill Reef Stakes after that, which he was entered in, but it looks a smart move to have waited for something lower-key and he has enormous scope for improvement.
He’s had 50 days off since his last run, was keen last time and I see no reason why he shouldn’t handle better ground. I certainly think he’s got the raw talent to have a say at this level and at 8/1 he looks a good bet to trouble those at the top of the market.
Later on the card Atzeni has another good chance aboard ATLETICO (14/1 General) in the Sun Bets Responsible Betting Handicap at 4.00.
This horse remains highly unexposed and I really like how he shaped at York last time after a few months off.
He had little chance as the groups merged, Silvestre de Sousa having to weave between horses, but he ran on promisingly enough to be beaten just over five lengths in eighth.
That’s no consolation if you were one of the punters that backed him into 5/1 favouritism that day, the fifth consecutive race for which he’s gone off market leader, but that just shows you the regard he’s held in.
I think he can start repaying that faith soon, though, and Saturday could well be the day. On his form at Windsor and Goodwood in the summer he’s got a live chance off his slightly reduced mark of 91 while he’s entitled to come on for that York run, his first for eight weeks.
Roger Varian, whose horses are still running well as they have done all season, has won this race before with Steps, and Just Glamorous should tow the far-side horses into this nicely.
However, I do want a second string to my bow and with plenty of pace drawn middle to stands’ side it makes sense to take one of the high numbers as well so, though I was tempted by the fresher-than-most Lincoln, I am going to roll the dice and back Richard Hannon’s TOMILY at 28/1 with bet365 (25/1 General).
This horse was stone last when he ran at Windsor, but the softer ground went against him that day and he has been given plenty of time to recover since.
Last year he disappointed at Royal Ascot but then had a similar break after which he ran really well during an autumn campaign, including a second in the Listed two-year-old race on this card.
Rated 99 after that, he acquitted himself well on the all-weather earlier in the year but has largely struggled on turf since which has seen his mark drop to 91.
He is capable on turf, though. Last year’s Listed second here at Doncaster shows that, as well as his running-on fourth (beaten half-a-length) at Sandown off 95 in the summer.
Of course, he is a horse that needs plenty to go his way, as you would expect for a 25/1 chance.
But running off a strong gallop on the stands’ side wing, on good ground, with Hollie Doyle taking 3lb off his already career-low mark, means there is enough in his favour to have a go at big odds.
Finally, good ground at Prestbury Park will be a crucial factor on day two of Cheltenham's first meeting of winter.
Hopefully that will be the case for ON FIDDLERS GREEN in the opening randoxhealth.com Handicap Chase as he looks overpriced at 16/1 (General).
Henry de Bromhead's horse improved for the switch to his new trainer last year, winning two of his first four starts for the yard on good ground including a big-field handicap at the Galway Festival where he jumped stylishly for an easy success.
He won a decent pot this summer, too, in the Connacht National at Roscommon, before getting stuck in the mud on his last two starts.
Back on better ground he can resume his upward curve, as this strong traveller and sound jumper looks just the type to relish the test that a truly-run handicap around Cheltenham provides.
Colin Tizzard's pair are a danger and it looks as though the Dorset trainer is hitting the ground running again after five winners in the last seven days.
With that in mind it's worth backing his TEMPESTATEFLORESCO in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle at a tasty-looking 14/1 (General).
This horse is fit from a summer campaign where he landed the Listed Summer Cup over fences at Uttoxeter in July, a competitive affair that he won comfortably after his stamina came to the fore.
The mix of a staying test on good ground really brought the best out in him and with that firmly in my thoughts he's of major interest now he steps up in trip over timber.
He's switched to novice hurdling well after plying his trade in points and over fences for most of his career and he's been let in lightly for his handicap debut over hurdles.
A mark of 137 is 8lb lower than his chase rating and he looks well capable of taking advantage now he tackles a trip on a decent surface.
Value Bet: RP Trophy Day
1pt win Speak In Colours in 1.45 Doncaster at 8/1
1pt win Atletico in 4.00 Doncaster at 14/1
1pt win Tomily in 4.00 Doncaster at 28/1
1pt win On Fiddlers Green in 2.00 Cheltenham at 16/1
1pt win Tempestatefloresco in 3.45 Cheltenham at 14/1
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +349.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 27/10/17.