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Cheltenham Festival day four Value Bets: Star tipster Ben Linfoot has four selections for Gold Cup day
Horse Racing
Fri March 16, 2018 · 7y ago
Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot struck with 12/1 selection Delta Work on Thursday - don't miss his four tips for Cheltenham Gold Cup day.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Cheltenham Festival Day Four
1pt win Smaoineamh Alainn in 2.10 Cheltenham at 16/1
1pt e.w. Brelade in 2.10 Cheltenham at 40/1
1pt win Melrose Boy in 4.50 Cheltenham at 25/1
1pt win Theinval in 5.30 Cheltenham at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup revolves around King George winner Might Bite and plenty of punters will be backing him at 9/2 on the final day of the Festival.
He has the best recent form in the race and a Festival win in the bag thanks to last year’s RSA Chase victory, but his tendency to wander right up the hill is an obvious concern.
It probably is factored into his price as he should arguably be shorter on the bare form, but the recent rain looks against him as well as there is a bit of a question mark about his stamina for the trip, especially on testing conditions.
The one I like is Our Duke, but he looks about right in the market now. His Irish National win as a novice suggested he had all the tools to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup and his recent defeat of Presenting Percy, giving him weight over a trip too short, looks even better now.
He'd be my tentative Gold Cup selection, but there looks better betting races elsewhere on the card with three superb handicaps to wade through starting with the Randox Health County Hurdle at 2.10.
I can't say it or even spell it but I can copy and paste it and SMAOINEAMH ALAINN looks a good bet at 16/1 (General) for trainer Robert Walford.
She is unbeaten in three starts since moving to Walford, who stuck a hood on her straight away when she won easily in novice company this time last year.
Her next race came in a novice at Wincanton in October and that set her up nicely for a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham’s December meeting where she won impressively off a mark of 129.
The handicapper hit her with an 8lb rise after that and she hasn’t been seen since, but the runner-up Remiluc has, four times, and he's franked the form every time he’s run such has been his consistency in big races.
Her Cheltenham win came on the New Course on testing ground and she only looks likely to improve again for a stronger gallop. Such has been her rapid improvement this season it’s impossible to know if she’s stopped progressing yet but at 16/1 I’m happy to wager she hasn’t.
Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott has had a fabulous week after a slow start and he’s been winning all the handicaps as well as everything else. At 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) his BRELADE looks a massive price to add another pot to his growing collection.
A strong-travelling sixth in last year’s Neptune behind Willoughby Court, Brelade has some classy back form as he was second to Saturnas in the Grade One for two-mile novices at Leopardstown the previous Christmas and he followed that up with a third in the 2017 Deloitte.
He hasn’t disgraced himself over fences this season, finishing second to Footpad and Petit Mouchoir, but his smooth-travelling style lends itself well to a big-field handicap hurdle so it’s no real surprise to see him revert to timber.
This is his handicap debut, but on his very best Grade One form a mark of 141 looks by no means beyond him.
Considering the week his trainer is having I can’t believe he’s 40s and he’s well worth an each-way bet at that price. Shop around for the best each-way terms, most are paying five places and Sky Bet are among those going six.
The top trainers usually win the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle as well, with Willie Mullins winning it three times in recent years while Elliott won it last year and he always targets some good horses at the race named in honour of his former boss.
Elliott and Mullins have loads of ammunition again in the race, but the one that stuck out at the prices was Harry Fry’s MELROSE BOY at 25/1 (General).
A winner on the Old Course at the November meeting in a handicap off 123, he’s a stone higher in the weights now but has sufficiently progressed throughout the season.
Last time he ran a cracking race behind subsequent Coral Cup second Topofthegame in the Betfred Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, finishing third after moving through the contest in the style of a well-handicapped horse.
He just got outstayed over nearly three miles, but dropping back in trip in a race that looks sure to be run at a good clip looks a sound move.
Finally, it could pay to ignore the market weakness in THEINVAL and back him at 14/1 (General) to deliver another Grand Annual for trainer Nicky Henderson.
The reason for the drift is presumably because of the testing conditions, but he ran well enough on softer ground in his handicap hurdle days and he hasn’t had much chance to prove he still goes on it since.
That might be because he’s been kept away from it, but at 14s I’m happy to chance him as there is a compelling case for him from a handicapping point of view.
Rated 148 last spring after finishing third in this race among other good efforts, he’s dropped to a mark of 141 now but things haven’t gone his way in four starts this campaign.
He fell at the first in the BetVictor and then tried 2m5f in heavy ground when last seen, but he’s at his best chasing a strong gallop over two as he proved when running so well in this contest last year.
Rock The World improved from third in 2016 to winning this last year and, despite the ground, Theinval has the credentials to repeat that trick.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 15/03/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +369.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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