Ben Linfoot had a 40/1 place on day one of Goodwood as well as a 20/1 stewards reversal - don't miss his advice for day two of the meeting.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Glorious Goodwood Day Two
1pt win Golden Doyen in 1.50 Goodwood at 11/1 - looks very well treated on best jumps form, especially now he tackles a real stamina test on the Flat
1pt win Galactic Prince in 2.25 Goodwood at 18/1 - His Goodwood win from earlier in the season worked out really well and trainer has a great record when running horses out of the weights
1pt win Londinium in 2.25 Goodwood at 11/1 - Looks really well handicapped over 1m4f after nothing went right for him over 10f at Chester latest and stable do really well here
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Rain is forecast at Goodwood on Wednesday and it looks like it’s going to arrive late morning. It could be a very wet afternoon so an ease in the going looks likely, although such a scenario shouldn’t bother either of the big two in the Qatar Sussex Stakes (3.35).
Both Ribchester and Churchill are highly effective on slower ground, so that variable won’t be a deciding factor. Instead, the poser for punters is whether Churchill can bounce back to top form after being beaten in the St James’s Palace Stakes. And if he can, is that good enough to beat Ribchester?
Even though Churchill won on good to firm ground in the 2000 Guineas, I thought the fast conditions were a viable excuse for him at Royal Ascot. It was very quick, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to top form on the softer surface.
Ribchester is a top-class opponent, but the 7lb weight-for-age allowance has seen three-year-olds dominate this race in recent years and, at the prices, I’m leaning towards the number one Ballydoyle contender in what does look a two-horse race, although French raider Zelzal does bring a completely new line of form into things.
It’s not a Value Bet kind of race, though, and neither is the Molecomb, so the focus is on the opening two handicaps with the second contest, the Better Odds With Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap, having a really nice punting shape to it.
Secret Advisor heads the market and he is an improving horse, but he was beaten off a 15lb lower mark in two handicaps in May and he has been dealt a wide draw here.
I’m keen to take him on with a couple of horses including LONDINIUM at 11/1 (bet365, Coral, 10s general) for Mark Johnston, who has won this race three times in the last nine years.
The son of New Approach looks let in lightly here off 84, as he was beaten a head in a Ripon handicap off 81 on his only previous start at the distance, and that was his seasonal reappearance and first since being gelded.
He probably would’ve improved significantly from that performance on his second start of the campaign but nothing went right for him off a muddling gallop at Chester over 10 furlongs. He was slowly away, raced keenly, found trouble and then ran on for third when they sprinted for home.
He’s miles better than that and it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to show it at Goodwood considering his yard, who always do so well here. He was the outsider of the three Johnston horses earlier on Tuesday, but he's second choice of the three now and is still worth backing at any double-figure prices.
I also want Andrew Balding’s GALACTIC PRINCE on side at 18/1 (general).
Regular readers are fully aware of how highly I rate the better handicappers from this yard and though I’ve said it before I’ll have to say it again; when Balding runs one from out of the handicap it’s a positive.
Queen’s Star, Benzanno, Brick Rising, Collaboration, Elbereth and Ian Fleming have all won from out of the handicap for Balding in the last five years and he only ever runs one that is wrong at the weights when he feels it has a genuine chance.
And it’s no surprise he feels Galactic Prince has a genuine chance. A winner by a cosy neck at Goodwood on June 16, that race has worked out really well with the third, Koeman, winning twice since, the fourth, Duke Of Bronte, winning at Newbury subsequently and the fifth, Twenty Times, second at Newmarket.
Galactic Prince improved again after that when third at Ascot last time, but he was keen that day and gave the impression he’d relish a big-field handicap where his high-cruising speed would be seen to best effect off a proper gallop.
He should get that on Wednesday and if he gets the breaks from his inside draw he can go close from his feather weight with Jimmy Quinn on board.
The opening Matchbook Betting Exchange Goodwood Handicap over nearly 2m5f looks wide open, although Marcus Tregoning’s Hawkerland could be an obvious blot on the handicap given how easily he won over two miles at Chepstow last time.
There could be a few lurking off lenient weights in this, though, and at 11/1 (general) the one that catches my eye is Philip Hobbs’ GOLDEN DOYEN.
Jumps trainers traditionally have a good record in this race for obvious reasons and Golden Doyen looks to be very well treated back on the level, especially now he tackles a distance like this for the first time on the Flat.
A winning hurdler at Cheltenham over three miles last October, off a mark of 140, that sort of form gives him an outstanding chance off 79 on the Flat now he faces a proper stamina test.
The last time he ran on the Flat, at Ascot last September, he was a staying-on third off the same mark over two miles when looking in need of an even sterner examination.
He’s fit from a couple of spins summer jumping at Cartmel and Worcester and he looks set to benefit from Luke Morris’ strong handling, a jockey that has had a winner for Hobbs before having only ridden three times for the Minehead handler.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +388.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 01/08/17.