Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free horse racing betting preview and tips
Ben Linfoot has had 28/1, 14/1 and 8/1 Value Bet winners in his last two previews – don’t miss his Saturday tips with four advised in the handicaps at Ascot as the jumps season cranks up a gear.
There’s quality horse racing for everyone’s taste around the world this weekend and, while I’ll be watching the action at Del Mar intently, I couldn’t recommend any bets at the Breeders’ Cup given a distinct lack of knowledge of the home contingent.
It looks like the draw will have a major impact on the tight turf course there as well, but any edge has long gone and it remains to be seen how that plays out. Let’s hope the Europeans come back with at least a few of the trophies.
In the UK attention has firmly switched to the jumps, even if Newmarket is still chugging along, and most eyes will be gazing upon Wetherby and what looks like an excellent renewal of the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase.
It’ll be a real treat for the Yorkshire crowd to witness the likes of Coneygree, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai winging their way around the circuit and the first-named, a former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, has a real advantage getting 6lb from those two rivals.
The ground has come right for him and he goes well fresh, so there’s no reason why this fragile but brilliant chaser can’t put on a real show under Nico de Boinville. If he runs to the same level he did at Punchestown when last seen in April they won’t get near him off these terms.
Lil Rockerfeller looks to have an even simpler task in the Bet365 Hurdle on the same card and I’m not feeling the urge to take the Wetherby hotpots on, especially when there is a quartet of Ascot handicaps to have a go at on ITV4.
They end with the Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase at 3.35, but I’m going to start with that race as THOMAS BROWN looks the bet of the day at 10/1 (General).
His trainer Harry Fry has started the season with a bang, training seven winners from 30 runners in October at 23 per cent, while his career record at Ascot is an ultra-healthy 12 from 42 at 29 per cent.
They’re good numbers and if you need some more Thomas Brown’s record first time out is 1-1-1 since he started jumping obstacles.
The middle of those was an easy win here at Ascot on his chasing debut, while the last ‘1’ was his latest win, as he took a handicap chase well off a mark of 137 on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree.
There were 28 lengths back to the third that day and Thomas Brown jumped brilliantly, something he didn’t do in the deep midwinter ground on his subsequent runs after that.
However, he’s dropped back down to a rating of 138 now, just 1lb higher than his Aintree win a year ago, and, considering that superb record when fresh, now is the time to back him.
Another trainer in tremendous form is Gary Moore and his ANTONY looks a big enough danger to warrant a saver at 12/1 (General).
This horse was a really good winner of this race last year off just a 4lb lower mark, relishing the good ground as he jumped and travelled like the winner the whole way around.
The way he quickened away from a good field between two out and the last was impressive and he’s had a similar preparation again after running at Fontwell on October 6, where he was a respectable third behind Go Conquer.
It would be no surprise if he reversed that form now he’s back at Ascot with a run under his belt and, considering his trainer’s recent form (11 wins from 37 at 30 per cent for the last fortnight), he’s worth backing as well.
I also like the look of his stablemate, CLAYTON, in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 3.00 given he’s available at 25/1 (General).
He hasn’t been seen for a year but goes well fresh and there’s plenty of untapped potential with him.
Formerly with Kevin Ryan in a previous life as a Flat horse, he was rated 104 in that sphere and is absolutely thrown in on his best form on the level off a hurdles rating of 122 on Saturday.
He’s been keen over timber and he needs to brush up his jumping as well, but if everything comes together he could make a mockery of his current rating.
It’s encouraging he ran so well at this track on his hurdles debut a few years ago, while he was far from disgraced behind the then-hot Peter The Mayo Man on his sole start at Newbury last season when a bad mistake two out did for him.
Ground on the good side and a decent gallop around Ascot should suit and off a feather weight I can’t resist him at 20s despite his apparent fragility.
I could easily have had a Gary Moore trixie as I’m also a big fan of his Benatar, who makes his chasing debut in the Ascot Underwriting Chase (1.50).
The problem is, he’s been allotted a handicap mark of 142 for this novices’ limited handicap on the back of his Grade One fourth behind Finian’s Oscar at Aintree in April.
Even for one of his serious potential over the bigger obstacles, that’s a very tough opening mark and I’d rather have a few quid on Nicky Henderson’s BALLINURE at 9/1 (General).
This horse is two from three over fences and something looked amiss the one time he didn’t win a chase, at Worcester in June where he was pulled up.
A small wind operation seemed to do the trick as he showed some real resilience to see off the challenge of Braqueur D’Or at Stratford in late August.
He beat that horse almost a length getting just 1lb and the run suggests he’s well treated off 128. Braqueur D’Or, who runs in the aforementioned Sodexo Gold Cup, has subsequently hacked up at Ludlow and is now rated 139.
Good ground looks essential to Ballinure, so he’s got his conditions, and he ran well at Ascot on his only start here, when second over hurdles to Desert Sensation in the December of last season.
The icing on the cake with him is that he’s a horse best fresh. He had a couple of months off before his last win and he’s had the same time away from the track since his latest effort, a down the field spin over hurdles at the beginning of September.
Recommended bets: Value Bet
1pt win Thomas Brown in 3.35 Ascot at 10/1 (General) - goes well fresh and well-treated on his best
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +382.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 03/11/17.