Free horse racing betting tips: Ben Linfoot Value Bet preview for Newmarket Friday October 13
Ben Linfoot has three Value Bet selections at Newmarket on Friday including Hugo Palmer's Gifted Master in the Challenge Stakes.
Aidan O’Brien’s Group One roadshow rolls into Newmarket on Friday as a trio of Ballydoyle fillies, Happily, Magical and September, bid to give the master trainer his 24th top-level victory of the calendar year.
The odds are firmly stacked in O’Brien’s favour. He’s going for his fourth consecutive bet365 Fillies’ Mile prize on the back of wins for Together Forever, Minding and Rhododendron, while his three chances this year all occupy the top three slots in the betting.
Whichever one wins, it’s firmly expected O’Brien will head into Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes with a chance of equalling Bobby Frankel’s Group/Grade One world record of 25 wins in the same year.
That’s the hot topic of conversation heading into Newmarket, but it’s a really good supporting card as well including the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap at 4.10 and I think there’s a good each-way bet at a big price.
Peter Chapple-Hyam has a good record in this race as he won it three years ago with 40/1 chance Farquhar, while he was second in the race two years ago with 16/1 chance Goathland, a horse that probably should’ve won after making his move very early.
While the Newmarket trainer’s numbers have generally been in decline the last few years, it hasn’t stopped him doing well in this race and he looks to have targeted it once again with 50/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4) chance MEDALLA DE ORA.
This son of Teofilo improved for being gelded in the summer, coming out and winning easily at Windsor twice following the operation, before just going down to fellow hat-trick seeker Maori Bob at Leicester.
He went to Beverley after that and disappointed, but nothing went right for him that day. He was pestered for the lead and was keen, didn’t handle one of the early bends well and didn’t look to get home in the soft ground either.
Considering all that, he did pretty well to still be in with a chance of hitting the frame a furlong out and he was only beaten six lengths despite being allowed to coast home in the latter stages once his chance had gone.
He’s well worth forgiving the run and it’s also worth remembering both Farquhar and Goathland came into the contest on the back of disappointing defeats (Farquhar was well beaten, while Goathland was surprisingly turned over after being sent off 8/13).
Key to Medalla De Ora looks to be getting him settled in the early stages, while the likely better ground is vital to him bouncing back to form as well.
The good thing is there isn’t bags of early pace in this with perhaps only Hochfeld likely to go forward with him. It’s down to Noel Garbutt to settle him and, while he hasn’t been banging in the winners this year by any means, it’s encouraging that he rode Chapple-Hyam’s New Empire into second at Glorious Goodwood at 66/1 on his only ride for the trainer this campaign.
With just that one below-par run at Beverley to forgive, with valid excuses for the performance in mind, Medalla De Ora could well resume his upward curve in a race his trainer targets and at big odds he's well worth getting on side.
Earlier on the card, the Godolphin Stud And Stable Staff Awards Challenge Stakes looks more wide open than the betting suggests as I’m not convinced Limato deserves his cramped odds of around 2/1.
He’s been beaten on all four starts this season and while his dip in form is reflected in his decreasing official rating (dropped from 122 to 115) he still looks on the skinny side for a horse that has seemingly lost his sparkle and has become hard to win with.
This is probably his best chance of gaining a win all year, as on his best form it would be a comfortable assignment and he comes into it fresh after a break, but at the prices I’m more than happy to take him on.
The one that appeals against him is GIFTED MASTER (12/1 Paddy Power/Betfair), as he’s back to his very best and could get the run of the race on the front end.
William Buick is likely to be allowed to dominate in this and we’ve seen this horse gallop his rivals into submission on the Rowley Mile three times before, while two victories over six recently should’ve set him up perfectly for his return to seven.
He looks to have got his confidence back after victories at Doncaster and on the July Course, the battling nature of his most recent win a really good sign.
The four-year-old has often shaped like seven furlongs is the ideal distance for him, but he hasn’t had the chance to prove it this year. His last run suggested he needs it now, though, and in a race where it could pay to be on the front end I want to take the 9/1.
Finally, MRS GALLAGHER is worth chancing at 22/1 (General) in the Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes at 1.50.
She’s all about speed and ran a cracking race over six furlongs in the Group Three Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury last time, as she missed the break, made up her ground quickly to contest the lead and raced fiercely until weakening inside the final furlong.
The drop back to five looks the sensible move and the minimum trip, combined with the ground (it was soft the last time she raced over five furlongs) could well see her take a huge leap forward.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +346.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 12/10/17