Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Horse racing tips for day two of Newmarket's July Festival and York
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day two of the July Festival at Newmarket and at York.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet
1pt win Atkinson Grimshaw in 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1
1pt win Isabel’s On It in 3.15 York at 22/1
1pt win Delectation in 3.35 Newmarket at 16/1
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The Group One Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes on day two of Newmarket’s July Festival has thrown up the odd shock down the years and Friday’s renewal could be ripe for another.
It’s far from a vintage contest with Roly Poly, winless in her last seven starts, heading the betting. Sea Of Grace is second favourite following her runner-up finish in the French 1000 Guineas but she is also without a win as a three-year-old, while third-favourite Wuheida has had injuries and hasn’t been seen for the best part of 300 days.
In contrast Arabian Hope is unbeaten as a three-year-old from three starts and is very much going the right way. At 5/1 she makes most appeal from those at the top of the market, but she also needs to take a step up and I just wonder if it’s worth rolling slightly bigger dice with DELECTATION at 16/1 (General).
The former Bryan Smart-trained filly won a Group Three at Cologne in April on her first start for Andreas Wohler and she won it pretty easily by a couple of lengths. Peace Of Motion dead-heated for third that day and went on to be second in the German 1000 Guineas, with Delectation only fourth.
That form wouldn’t be good enough to win a Falmouth Stakes, but Delectation is better than that and it was at least a step in the right direction after she was eased home in the French 1000 Guineas when things didn’t go her way.
In the German Guineas she was held up at the back of the field and was given plenty to do when unleashed after the home turn where she stayed on strongly to take a never-nearer fourth.
It was a run that suggested there was plenty more to come and after just five career starts, two of which were wins at Group Three level, she could well improve enough to play a big part in a weak race for the very top level.
In the preceding race, Mark Johnston is going for an incredible fifth consecutive win in what is always an ultra-competitive handicap.
This year he’s double-handed with Titi Makfi and Monticello and both have chances, particularly the former who is going for a five-timer.
However, she’s predictably been well found by the market and I’m more taken by the claims of Andrew Balding’s ATKINSON GRIMSHAW at 12/1 (bet365, Bet Victor, 11s generally).
Balding’s assault on the top handicaps shows no signs of abating after recent successes in the Stewards’ Cup, Chester Cup, Hambleton Handicap and more at all the big meetings and his record with horses running out of the handicap is fantastic.
Before this race became the Mark Johnston show Balding won it a couple of times and odds of 12/1 that he can add to that record are fair as Atkinson Grimshaw is a horse that has plenty more to give.
The form of his last two wins hasn’t worked out at all, but that he settled quite nicely after being a little keen in the early stages last time at Chester was encouraging, especially with it being a small field over a mile and a half.
He couldn’t have won it any easier, though, shaping as if there is plenty more to come. The drop in trip back to 10 furlongs shouldn’t bother him at all and, it’s worth repeating, being 2lb out of the handicap should be seen as a positive given his stable.
Finally, the day’s best bet could be up at York in the Group Three Unibet Summer Stakes over six furlongs with William Haggas’ ISABEL’S ON IT available at 22/1 (Ladbrokes, 20s generally).
Queen Kindly would win this race easily on her Sky Bet Lowther Stakes form from last August, but she hasn’t looked in the same sort of nick in any of her four subsequent starts and if you take that Lowther run out of the equation this is wide open.
Isabel’s On It has improved with each start this season, significantly so last time in a Listed race at Carlisle where Ben Curtis let her pull herself to the lead before she was eventually headed with a furlong to go.
However, the way she kept on for a close fourth once headed despite being keen early suggests she’s a filly with some serious ability and the key to her on Friday could be softer handling dropping in trip to six furlongs for the first time.
Haggas has plenty of previous when it comes to horses dropping from seven to six for the first time at York, including this season with Tasleet, and the booking of Jamie Spencer (pictured) looks a shrewd move if connections are bidding to maximise her performance by getting her settled into a nice rhythm early.
She certainly looks to have the speed for this type of race and, though she has a bit to find on official ratings, she could well find the necessary improvement now she’s unleashed over six furlongs.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +374.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 13/07/17.
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