Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections for Epsom's Blue Riband Trial card on Wednesday, including the Investec City And Suburban Handicap.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Epsom April 25
1pt win Fire Fighting in 3.20 Epsom at 12/1
1pt win Dash Of Spice in 3.55 Epsom at 8/1
1pt win Pacify in 3.55 Epsom at 16/1
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It’s now 79 years since the Derby winner won the Classic trial at Epsom six weeks beforehand but the signs are that something might well ‘do a Blue Peter’ sooner rather than later if John Gosden continues to run good horses in the race.
Last year his Cracksman won the Epsom trial, just, before finishing third in the Derby and he ended up being the best three-year-old colt around as he matured throughout the season before running away with the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot in October.
Gosden is going for his fourth successive win in what is now billed the Investec Blue Riband Trial (2.45) and he could well continue the sequence with Crossed Baton, a Dansili colt that proved he had trained on when winning a novice stakes at Kempton at the end of last month.
The best form in the race, though, belongs to Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee, fourth best in the market at around 4/1. He won at Epsom as a two-year-old and was second in a Listed contest at Newmarket on his final start as a juvenile, so it’ll be interesting to see how this son of Farhh has developed from two to three.
Aidan O’Brien throws a few into the mix as well, but, all in all, this race has a trappy look to it with so many unknown variables, including the progress of all of these colts over the winter.
It looks a race to watch and learn from and the two handicaps that immediately follow offer good punting opportunities anyway, with the Investec City And Suburban Handicap (3.55) market dominated by Roger Varian’s Ajman King.
Varian has an excellent record at Epsom (25 per cent win strike-rate) and this horse won at the track last season while looking highly progressive when scooting away with a handicap at Doncaster on his final start at three off a mark of 85.
He could well go in again off 8lb higher, but plenty of Varian’s have needed the run and I’m not sure he’ll be able to confirm Epsom form with DASH OF SPICE (8/1 General) anyway off 10lb worse terms on Wednesday.
The pair were first and second off level weights in maiden company at the home of the Derby last October, with Dash Of Spice two-lengths in arrears despite being allowed to coast home once his winning chance had gone.
It was a promising performance from the second and he duly went one better in a Lingfield maiden in December, winning well from Past Master with subsequent winner Swiss Vinnare four-lengths adrift in third.
An opening mark of 82 looks fair for this well-related Teofilo colt, with the one-eyed and talented Barshiba among his relatives as well as full-brother Dashing Star, a horse that won on his second start in a handicap off a mark of 83.
Even though he’s 1lb out of the handicap, this looks a canny bit of placement from Elsworth as he gets at least 10lb from everything.
With track form under his belt and those solid claims of reversing places with the favourite off these weights, he looks the one to be on at anything from 7/1 and upwards.
This is a good race and there are plenty of dangers, including Andrew Balding’s Contango who has to be considered just because of his trainer’s good record at this meeting.
However, at 16/1 (General) Ralph Beckett’s PACIFY looks overpriced and I want him on side as well.
It was a frustrating season for this son of Paco Boy last year but he came out of it looking pretty well handicapped with his mark dropping from 102 to 96 after five defeats in 2017.
When it touched 94 he went close to winning at Newmarket in July and that just shows how dangerous he is from this sort of rating.
Two years ago he was just beaten into second by Dark Red in this very race off a mark of 95, a performance that proves he can go well fresh and at this track as well.
A couple of years on and compensation could well await, especially with Beckett among the winners (has won seven from 22 at 32 per cent in the last two weeks) recently.
Finally, Mark Johnston’s FIRE FIGHTING looks very interesting on his return to turf and he’s worth backing at the general 12/1 in the Investec Corporate Banking Great Metropolitan Handicap (3.20).
He’s dropped 10lb to 96 since he last ran on the grass and on his best turf form he’s thrown in having won handicaps off 100, 102 and 108 on this surface in the past.
His course form is excellent as he won his maiden here and he finished a neck second in a handicap at this track on Oaks day in 2015 off 106 as well, while he was third in the aforementioned City And Suburban off 104 earlier that year.
He’s in pretty good nick having won on the all-weather last month and he’ll certainly be fit enough after a busy campaign since the turn of the year.
This is his easiest task on turf for a good while and though there are some lightly-raced and unexposed types in opposition, if there’s any lack of sharpness in them at this time of year he has the ability to expose any such chinks in their armour.
Posted at 1730 BST on 24/04/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +375.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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