Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Different Choice | Free horse racing betting preview and tips for Welsh Grand National & Sandown
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets at Chepstow in the Welsh Grand National and in two races at Sandown on a busy Saturday afternoon.
Value Bet: January 6
1pt win Emperor’s Choice in 2.05 Chepstow at 20/1
1pt win Buckhorn Timothy in 2.05 Chepstow at 25/1
1pt win Cloudy Too in 3.00 Sandown at 10/1
1pt win Drops Of Jupitor in 3.35 Sandown at 7/1
If you made your mind up on your Coral Welsh National fancy as you finished off the turkey sandwiches on Boxing Day night, the question now is whether to stick or twist 10 days on.
Having tipped Milansbar and BUCKHORN TIMOTHY (25/1 General) before the card was abandoned last time I’m in the same position and, though I’m sticking with the latter, I’m going to twist by leaving out Milansbar in favour of EMPEROR’S CHOICE at 20/1 (General).
I’ve not particularly gone off Milansbar, I’d just rather back Emperor’s Choice at the prices on Saturday. A 20/1 chance on Boxing Day night, Milansbar is a best of 14s now and that’s enough to change allegiance to Venetia Williams’ charge who wasn’t even in the race 10 days ago.
Indeed, he’s only got in the contest because of a 4lb penalty attained last Saturday, where he took advantage of his lowest handicap mark in almost five years as he ploughed his way through the Haydock mud to beat West Of The Edge.
He’s officially 3lb well-in after that win and there’s some good evidence that suggests he could well back up last week’s success.
In February 2013 he won twice in eight days, both times in heavy ground, and in the same month the following year he was first and second in tough handicaps in the space of a fortnight, again, both times in really testing conditions.
He’s also won a Welsh National before off a 3lb higher mark and it must be significant he sneaks in at number 20 on the list after stablemate Houblon Des Obeaux, in the original line-up 10 days ago, was re-routed to the veterans race at Sandown.
Throughout his career he’s proven that a marathon test in near-waterlogged ground is his optimum conditions and he showed that again just last weekend.
He could chuck the towel in or it may well come too soon after Haydock, but at 20/1 this latecomer to the party looks to have been seriously underestimated and I have to have him on side.
The argument for Milansbar is here and so is the old one for Buckhorn Timothy so I’ll keep the case for Colin Tizzard’s charge brief:
His best run over fences came at Chepstow, where he was second to Potter Cross off a similar mark in a good handicap. His chase mark has been protected by Tizzard this season who has run him over hurdles twice. He won both of those races and even though he was fortunate last time it was still going to be a perfectly fine Welsh National prep. He goes really well in testing ground. This is the most extreme test of stamina in his career but I think he will improve for it judging by his best form over three miles.
At 25/1, he’s still worth a bet.
Over at Sandown it’s the 32Red Veterans’ Handicap Chase Final and the aforementioned Houblon Des Obeaux does have a good chance in this judging by his win at the track in November.
However, he was a bit laboured last time when the extra emphasis on stamina really should’ve suited and at a similar price I’d rather back Sue Smith’s CLOUDY TOO at 10/1 (General).
He hasn’t shown an awful lot this season but he seems to need a few runs under his belt these days and his remote third behind Chase The Spud at Haydock last time was a step in the right direction.
Off a mark of 130 on Saturday he’s 1lb out of the handicap, but that’s still his lowest chase mark for five years and his trainer reported him to be working well earlier in the week.
We know he handles testing ground and I thought he took to Sandown pretty well in this race last year when he was fifth behind a quartet of rivals that reoppose this weekend.
He comes out by far the best at the weights of that quintet a year on, as he’s 13lb better off with Gas Line Boy, 13lb better off with Theatrical Star, 14lb better off with Loose Chips and 14lb better off with Pete The Feat.
Off a light weight he can go well and at double-figure prices he’s worth getting on side.
Finally, the best bet of the day is DROPS OF JUPITOR in the 32Red.com Handicap Hurdle (3.35) at 7/1 (General).
Her trainer Anthony Honeyball is flying and this grey Dylan Thomas mare is improving quickly over timber as evidenced by her victory in mares’ novice company at Exeter last time.
She raced really keenly at the back of the field throughout but hurdled well and cruised through the field to take up the running under Noel Fehily, who didn’t show her the whip as she tanked to an eight-length success.
The form of that race is probably nothing special, but she recorded a good time relative to the handicap hurdle over the same distance later on the card – especially as they went a half-decent gallop in the handicap whereas they didn’t in her race.
Saturday’s test is a step up, but the drop in trip looks ideal as she’s got plenty of speed and there looks more chance of her getting a decent gallop in this than she has in her recent novice races.
With Richard Johnson booked everything is in place for a big run and though she’s been backed on Friday afternoon from an opening 10s, she looks worth backing at 7s and anything from 5/1 upwards.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 05/01/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +376.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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