Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day two of the Craven Meeting at Newmarket on Wednesday.
Value Bet Selections
Paul Cole’s BERKSHIRE has had an up and down career but he’s a very good horse on his day and he looks a big price at 16/1 in the Group Three Earl Of Sefton Stakes on day two of the Craven Meeting at Newmarket on Wednesday.
Godolphin had a flying start to the meeting on Tuesday and they have two at the top of the market here in Folkswood and Viren’s Army, but if there’s one horse in the line-up who has the form to live with that pair it’s Berkshire.
A winner of the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot on his second start as a two-year-old, Berkshire missed all of his four-year-old campaign but looked on good terms with himself on occasions last year at five.
His form tailed off after a busy season, for him, towards the backend, but his second at Newbury in the Steventon Stakes and his Listed win at Windsor in August showed that the old fire burns brightly.
And, first time out, at Newmarket, could be the time to catch him.
He has an excellent record fresh with two of his four career victories coming after a significant break and both of those wins came on the Rowley Mile.
As a two-year-old he won the Royal Lodge at Newmarket over three months after his Chesham win, while his Darley Stakes win here the following year came over six months after his no-show in the Greenham.
His efforts at Windsor and Newbury last year showed that fast ground still suits him well and if he can reproduce those sort of efforts in the Earl Of Sefton he has a much better chance than odds of 16/1 suggest.
The break he’s had this time is just over five months and that should have freshened him up, while Jim Crowley, who has partnered Berkshire to all four of his career wins, makes a welcome return in the saddle.
Elsewhere on the card the Nell Gwyn looks a tough race to assess with many imponderables, but there are a couple of good handicaps to get stuck into including the opening Weatherbys General Stud Book Online Handicap at 1.50.
Mont Kiara could go well here for last year’s winning trainer Kevin Ryan and Reputation is interesting in first-time blinkers with Ryan Moore booked, but at 14/1 (William Hill, Bet Victor, bet365) I can’t let MOONRAKER go unbacked off a career-low mark.
A winner at Ascot as a three-year-old off a mark of 98, he was a neck second off the same rating at Newcastle last season and he now gets to race off 7lb lower.
He goes well fresh, so his absence since February is of no concern and he actually ran okay out in Dubai this winter, especially on his second start where he was beaten just over three lengths when running on for seventh.
All of his performances at Meydan came over five furlongs, but he’s better over six and this is the easiest assignment he’s had for a while.
Later on JE SUIS CHARLIE could be the bet of the meeting in the bet365 Handicap at 33/1 (1,2,3 1/5 odds Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, 25s generally).
His trainer Michael Bell often targets this race with one of his better three-year-olds and both Metaphoric and Wigmore Hall won this contest for the stable before going on to bigger and better things.
With a record like that Je Suis Charlie could be vastly underrated at 33/1 and there are several reasons to expect improvement from him on Wednesday.
For starters he steps up to 10 furlongs for the first time and this trip should bring the best out of him. He’s bred for middle distances and is a full-brother to 10-furlong winner Seasons In The Sun, while he’s a half-brother to Haalan and Fatcatinthehat who won over that distance or further.
He also has experience of the course having finished an eye-catching third in a nursery at the track in October, a race in which he paid the price for being keen in the early stages.
Considering that, he stayed on very nicely under hands and heels riding for third and that experience should have done him the world of good with Wednesday’s test in mind.
Gelded over the winter, and back on the sort of ground in which he smoothly landed a gamble in his maiden win at Beverley, everything is in place for Je Suis Charlie to run a massive race.
He’s 1lb out of the handicap, but that’s of no concern off his very light weight and getting at least 10lb from the field he’s must-bet material at 33s.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +357.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1710 BST on 18/04/17.