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Free betting tips: Ben Linfoot Value Bet selections for Good Friday at Lingfield and Newcastle
Horse Racing
Fri March 30, 2018 · 7y ago
Our Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best bets at the prices for Good Friday's action at Lingfield and Newcastle and he's backing horses at 10/1 and 33/1.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Good Friday
1pt e.w Curbyourenthusiasm in 2.00 Lingfield at 33/1
1pt win Chaplin Bay in 2.45 Newcastle at 10/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The old blank days on Good Friday are a thing of the past now with three excellent meetings for racing punters to enjoy at the start of the Easter weekend, headed by the All Weather Championships at Lingfield.
The card culminates with the Betway Easter Classic where Master The World and Mr Owen renew Winter Derby rivalry, while the superb Second Thought is expected to follow up his win at this meeting a year ago when he contests the Sunbets All-Weather Mile.
Finding bets on the card isn’t easy, though, with the fancied horses well found in the markets.
They include Watersmeet in the Betway All-Weather Marathon at 2.00, a horse that has been in the best form of his career this winter at the age of seven.
The nature of all-weather racing really seems to suit him and he’s dominated three events from the front end on his last three starts, beating CURBYOURENTHUSIASM on each occasion.
He was value for much more than the neck victory over that rival last time, being heavily eased down as the runner-up made late gains, but that’s not to say David Simcock’s horse can’t make more of a race of it this time and I think he’s worth an each-way bet at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3 Ladbrokes).
Curbyourenthusiasm is a hold-up horse that needs a strong gallop to aim at and he hasn’t really had that in four starts this winter following a long break.
He has improved with each run, however, and he has beaten Lord George and Soldier In Action in two of those races, rivals that are much shorter than him in the betting on Friday.
He was stuffed by Watersmeet on his first run after eight months off at Wolverhampton in January, but he got much closer in two subsequent starts and improved again when second to Dal Harraild at Chelmsford last time.
Given how he has improved with each start this year there is no reason why he can’t improve again, especially as we know he’s capable of a higher level of form thanks to his best efforts on turf which include a Mallard Stakes win and a Yorkshire Cup second.
His best all-weather form is right up there with those efforts as well, his handicap win at Chelmsford in November 2016 coming at the expense of Watersmeet – and he gave him 6lb that day.
It’s not form to be too confident about given it was 16 months ago and considering Watermeet’s improvement subsequently, but it does show the level he has attained in the past and could well achieve again now he’s got some runs under his belt.
As for the pace, he could be at the mercy of the Mark Johnston duo which isn’t an ideal situation, so it’s more with hope rather than expectation that he gets the good gallop he needs.
He’s still worth a go at the prices, however. The clincher was the jockey booking of Andrea Atzeni as he has a good record when teaming up with Simcock. They have a 19 per cent win strike-rate overall and that rises to 29 per cent on the all-weather at Lingfield. To further highlight the claims of the each-way part of the bet, Simcock and Atzeni have placed over 50 per cent of the time when teaming up on the all-weather.
Up at Newcastle Kentucky Derby hopeful Gronkowski is the star turn in the 32Red Burradon Stakes and there are a couple of competitive handicaps too, including the valuable Betway Handicap at 3.20.
It looks the best race on the card, but I found it incredibly difficult to find a bet with plenty having convincing claims, so I’d rather back CHAPLIN BAY at 10/1 (bet365) in the preceding sunbets.co.uk Handicap at 2.45.
He can be a tricky customer and is hard to predict, but he has gone very well first-time out the last two seasons so now could be the time to catch him. He was second on his stable debut at Thirsk after 186 days off in April 2016 and went one better this time last year when winning here at Newcastle off a mark of 74 after 181 days off the track.
That’s the same rating that he runs off on Friday and, though his turf rating has slipped to 63 since then, the signs are that he’s a better horse on the all-weather having run well at Newcastle before as well as Dundalk.
His sire, Fastnet Rock, certainly has a good record on the Newcastle Tapeta, with his progeny winning 13 races from 54 runners at over 24 per cent, and the way Chaplin Bay travelled when winning here 12 months ago suggests he is right at home on the surface.
He’ll need things to go his way again, but there does look to be a good bit of pace on with Firmdecisions, Sir Reginald Brown and Palenville in the line-up. If they go a decent enough gallop, it would be no surprise to see him swoop late with a winning run.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 29/03/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +362.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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