Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Saturday's Sandown selections
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets at Sandown this Saturday on Imperial Cup day.
Value Bet Selections
The Cheltenham Festival bonus has returned if the winner of the Matchbook Imperial Cup goes on to win again at Prestbury Park next week, but the extra £50,000 carrot hasn’t boosted the quality or depth of the race in a decidedly ordinary renewal.
There hasn’t been a lower-rated top-weight than Fixe Le Kap’s 138, certainly in the last decade, and there hasn’t been a smaller field than 13 for the race either.
It all means Fixe Le Kap is the general 5/1 favourite on the back of an absence of nearly a year. It’s understandable as he looked good as a novice, in soft ground as well, but there has to be a doubt he’ll be fully tuned up for this and the percentage call has to be to take him on.
William H Bonney was well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle last time and Gassin Golf fell at the third in the same race, too, yet that pair are second and third favourites here which also tells you plenty about the renewal.
The Betfair Hurdle has been a good guide in recent years, though. Both the last two winners of the Imperial Cup, Flying Angel and Ebony Express, came out of the Betfair and there’s no doubt this year’s renewal, featuring two novices that have sound claims in the Sky Bet Supreme, was a good one.
That leads me to think KAYF BLANCO’S effort in fifth was good, particularly as he went into the race on the back of a kicking from Lord Of The Island at Exeter, an incident that required stitches.
He travelled well on the inside in the Betfair Hurdle and only Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes were going as well as him three out. At two out he got a bit outpaced as the leaders turned the screw, but he stayed on nicely enough into fifth after that.
It wasn’t a performance that suggested he was thrown in off a mark in the mid-130s by any means, but it was a very solid effort in the context of this Saturday’s race. The handicapper has also dropped him 1lb – every little helps – and trainer Graeme McPherson reaches for the hood and tongue-tie in a bid to squeeze out a bit more improvement.
We’re not certain to get a good gallop here but there is hope that Bigmartre and Fixe Le Kap, both of which like to race prominently, ensure a sound enough tempo. That would suit Kayf Blanco as he can be a little keen and he’s gone well in big-field handicaps like the County Hurdle.
He goes well at Sandown, too, and he ran a cracker when third behind Champion Hurdle hopeful Brain Power and his stablemate Consul De Thaix here in December.
There isn’t a horse of that calibre in Saturday’s line-up and the softer ground will help Kayf Blanco as well. He’s a solid, consistent horse with good course form and the general 10s (you might get bigger at Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook) probably underestimates his chance a little.
If there is an up-and-coming horse that potentially has bags of improvement in the race it’s Gary Moore’s NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE and at 8/1 (general price) he’s worth backing too.
Remarkably Moore has never won the Imperial Cup despite the success he’s had at the track down the years, but Not Another Muddle is an interesting runner in this seeing as he could’ve turned up in the E.B.F Final.
Moore has clearly seen the opportunity and the switch to handicap company looks sure to suit this horse who has been keen in small-field novice hurdles.
He jumped to his right last time at left-handed Fontwell too, so going the other way round at Sandown could well benefit him and his proximity to the 129-rated Casper King last time suggests he could be well treated off a mark of 120.
After just three runs over timber, in which he showed promise every time, there is plenty of untapped potential there and, given his trainer, it would be no surprise if it were a Sandown handicap where it is unlocked.
Finally, Evan Williams’ WYLDE MAGIC looks underestimated at 25/1 (general price) in the E.B.F Final (1.50 Sandown).
This horse was sent off at odds-on at Sedgefield last time but didn’t look entirely at home on the undulations and was shuffled back at a crucial point as Theatre Act kicked on for home.
He’s better than that and his narrow defeat to Geordie Des Champs at Chepstow in December gives him a good chance on all known form in this race.
He was also very impressive when winning his bumper on soft ground and this is the first time since then he’s encountered conditions as testing, while we know he stays further and that could help him up the hill.
This could be a good test with Phobiaphiliac, Tintern Theatre and Crystal Lad helping force the pace and a strong gallop looks certain to suit the selection as well. He looks a big price at 25s.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +391.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 10/03/17.