Our Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot has three selections at big prices for day one of the Grand National meeting at Aintree on Thursday.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Day One Aintree
1pt win Clan Des Obeaux in 2.50 Aintree at 14/1
1pt win Diakali in 3.25 Aintree at 33/1
1pt win Bentelimar in 4.40 Aintree at 14/1
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Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup second Might Bite heads a stellar cast on day one of the Grand National meeting at Aintree and he could be the star turn on a golden day for Seven Barrows handler Nicky Henderson.
Stablemates Apple’s Shakira and We Have A Dream hold solid claims in the Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle, Brain Power is disputing favouritism for the meeting’s opener, L’Ami Serge and My Tent Or Yours have chances in the Betway Aintree Hurdle and Theinval is a deserved market leader in the Zut Media Red Rum Handicap Chase.
It could well be a day to remember for Henderson, then, but at odds of around 4/6 Might Bite looks very short in the Betway Bowl and it could be worth rolling the dice and taking him on.
Even though there’s an extra week between Cheltenham and Aintree this year, there is little doubt that Might Bite had the toughest race of his career in that epic Gold Cup duel with Native River.
It could well have left a mark and better horses than him have come out of the Gold Cup and failed in this race in recent years – Kauto Star and Denman to name but two.
Those two giants of the turf were trained by Paul Nicholls, a man with a fine recent record in this contest despite those high-profile disappointments. What A Friend won it for him in 2010, while Silviniaco Conti, in the news this week after his sad death, won back-to-back renewals in 2014-15.
And it’s a Nicholls horse that catches the eye this year with the unexposed and talented CLAN DES OBEAUX available at 14/1 (General).
Still only six-years-old, Nicholls has refrained from running this horse over three miles until now but it could unlock some serious improvement judging by the best of his efforts over trips around two-and-a-half miles.
He looked a horse of some potential over fences when he won a traditionally strong novice chase at Newbury on his second chase start, while he gave Vintage Clouds 7lb and a sound beating in a graduation chase at Haydock in late November.
Those wins, the most impressive of his career, came on flat, left-handed tracks and with that in mind Aintree could be perfect for him, while he won’t mind the softer conditions on this season’s evidence.
The last time he was seen, at Cheltenham in December’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, he ran a blinder off top weight in second, shaping like a stayer after being outpaced early on.
Nicholls reports he threw a splint earlier in the year which meant he missed Cheltenham, but that could be a blessing in disguise as he comes in here a fresh horse after 117 days off the track. Judging by his seasonal reappearance at Kempton, he’s perfectly capable of going well after a break.
The Betway Aintree Hurdle at 3.25 could be perfect for 2017 Coral Cup winner Supasundae, but I’m not sure he’s a horse to trust at short odds at the top level. He’s run in eight Grade Ones, winning just the once, and that was in a weak Irish Champion Hurdle against a fading Faugheen.
This race doesn’t look the strongest of races for a Grade One, either, even though numbers are up following the defection of Buveur D’Air, with veterans The New One and My Tent Or Yours filling positions two and three in the market.
With that in mind there is the potential for a shock and, at 33/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power), DIAKALI is the one that could cause an upset.
A close-up third in this race behind The New One as a five-year-old in 2014 when trained by Willie Mullins, Diakali has been hard to train and has only raced six times since, but on two of those occasions he has shown that the old fire burns brightly.
After a 398-day break he won a Grade Three at Tipperary by 10 lengths in the July of 2015, while he won a Fairyhouse conditions hurdle by 20 lengths this time last year when he was last seen.
On his very best form he has as good a chance as any in this race and that he’s performed after a long break before bodes well, too.
The new owner and trainer combination of Nick Peacock and Gary Moore is also interesting. They have enjoyed success at this meeting before with Ubak, twice, so for Moore to pitch him in here when he had the handicap option later in the week could be significant.
In a renewal that looks more open than the market suggests, there’s certainly enough about Diakali to have a bet at prices around 25/1 and upwards.
Finally, BENTELIMAR makes plenty of appeal at 14/1 (General) in the Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40).
Charlie Longsdon’s horse usually runs over two-and-a-half miles but the closest he came to victory this season was when he got within three lengths of Gino Trail over two miles at Cheltenham in December.
He was short of room at a crucial stage that day but stayed on well and a strongly-run two miles will bring his stamina into play.
With four or five front-runners in the line-up this looks likely to be run at a good clip and he gets a 10lb pull at the weights with Gino Trail plus a small pull with Bun Doran on that Cheltenham running.
Both of those rivals are much shorter in the market but Bentelimar looks slightly underestimated. First-time cheekpieces look a good idea as well and Charlie Longsdon has a good record when applying the sheepskin (16 winners from 94 runners at 17 per cent).
That’s a pretty healthy strike-rate and even though he’s come in for support on Wednesday afternoon (was 20s earlier), the general 14/1 still looks worth getting on side.
Posted at 1700 BST on 11/04/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +379.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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