Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day three at Royal Ascot and he has three bets for Gold Cup day including a 50/1 shot in the Britannia.
Recommended Bets, Royal Ascot 2020, Day Three
1pt win Grand Rock in 1.15 Ascot at 14/1
1pt win Maori Knight in 1.15 Ascot at 10/1
1pt e.w. Kondratiev Wave in 4.10 Ascot at 50/1
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Rain is forecast at Ascot on Wednesday night and in the early hours of Thursday morning and we could be looking at very different conditions for Gold Cup day.
It’s impossible to know how much they’ll get or how much it will get into the turf, but there is the possibility of some heavy showers so keep an eye on rainfall and ground updates.
Stradivarius is going for three in a row in the Gold Cup and his reappearance third behind Ghaiyyath was perfectly respectable over an inadequate trip, but he’s gained a few more battle scars since his win in this race last year and looks vulnerable enough at odds-on.
Technician will need every drop of rain going but if there is significant cut in the ground on the round course he becomes a player and the main threat to Stradivarius in the day’s feature.
He’s a young improving stayer and his record on soft ground or worse is excellent, as he’s four from four on such conditions including a Group One win in the Prix Royal-Oak, form that has been boosted by the runner-up, Call The Wind, who won a huge pot at Riyadh.
The anticipated weather seems to have been factored into Technician’s price, though, as he’s the solid 11/2 second favourite and he’s not quite big enough to back at that price without knowing if the ground has turned testing.
Prince Of Arran, third in that aforementioned Riyadh contest, has been a brilliant horse for Charlie Fellowes including his two placed efforts in the Melbourne Cup and he could get involved at an each-way price.
He came out the best horse at the weights in the Sagaro Stakes when narrowly beaten by Nayef Road 12 days ago and we know he takes his racing well following his performances off quick turnarounds Down Under.
I don’t think he wants a real slog at this trip, though, so we’ll leave the main event alone and stick to some of the handicaps starting with the Golden Gates Handicap at 1.15.
This is one of the temporary handicaps and it’s full of unexposed three-year-olds, with three of them battling it out for favouritism in the shape of Acquitted, Hypothetical and Global Storm.
That trio are respected, but the underestimated one looks to be William Haggas’ GRAND ROCK at 14/1 (General).
He’s another one that will love every drop of rain as he was twice a winner in heavy ground as a juvenile and he ended his two-year-old campaign with a good third in a Listed event at Pontefract on soft.
The second that day, Wyclif, ran well off top weight in what should turn out to be a hot race at Royal Ascot on Wednesday and Haggas was thinking of running this horse in a Derby trial this spring.
Cieren Fallon’s 3lb claim should help him from a handicapping perspective but I’m hoping this turns into a bit of a slog as this horse looks tough and should stay even further.
He’s a half-brother to Alright Sunshine who was eighth in the 1m6f Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot on Wednesday and Grand Rock could be running over that sort of distance later in the campaign.
It’s with hope they go hard enough for the closers to get into this and Grand Rock should be one of those from his wide draw.
The one I fear the most is Richard Hughes’ MAORI KNIGHT (10/1 bet365) at the bottom of the weights and he’s worth a bet, too.
Officially 6lb well-in on the back of a really good run in second at Haydock 11 days ago, he was unlucky not to win that day as he battled hard to master Crystal Pegasus only to get mugged by Midnights Legacy on the line.
Clearly he’s improved plenty from two to three and this son of Camelot wouldn’t mind any rain, either.
Like Grand Rock, I can see him getting further this season and he can be ridden with confidence by David Egan, who is likely to give him a prominent ride judging by his effort at Haydock.
Bets elsewhere are thin on the ground on a tricky day. I usually like to have a go at the Sandringham but when John Gosden has one officially 16lb well in it becomes a less appealing puzzle.
African Dream is the filly in question and it’s no surprise she heads the market at around 7/4 following her nose defeat to Stylistique at Newbury a week ago.
That rival is rated 106, African Dream gave her 7lb and she gets to race off 80 on Thursday.
The Britannia Stakes at 4.10 has one well in, too, as Finest Sound has 7lb in hand according to the handicapper for the Crisfords, on the back of an easy win at Haydock 10 days ago.
Simon Crisford won this race a couple of years ago for the same owner with Ostilio and he absolutely deserves to be favourite here, while Gosden has another lightly-raced one that could be very well-handicapped in Enemy.
However, there’s one at massive price that I like and that’s KONDRATIEV WAVE at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) for Tony Carroll and Ben Curtis.
The stands’ side has looked the place to be on the first few days and there’s a danger of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy if all the jockeys switch to the near side.
Luck in-running becomes a big factor in such a scenario as you could have over 20 horses jostling for position in one big group on the rail and getting the run of the race becomes even more important.
With that in mind Kondratiev Wave could be well positioned, as he’s drawn in 25 and he has the pace to take them along.
He’s improved this year on the all-weather following the application of cheekpieces and I liked how he took a couple of lengths out of the field with some sharp acceleration last time, only for him to get reeled in right on the line by Ziggle Pops.
That horse is as short as 16/1 for this race, while the third home, Grove Ferry, is 20s and the fourth home, Verboten, is one of the favourites at around 8/1, so it doesn’t make sense for the runner-up to have been dismissed by the bookmakers here.
He has to prove himself at the trip going up to a mile, but he’s a half-brother to a few 10-furlong horses and could improve for the extra furlong, while he has form on turf as he won a Curragh maiden when trained in Ireland.
That was on heavy ground, so I don’t think he’d mind any easing of the conditions, either, although he looks versatile on that score judging by his all-weather form.
Curtis has a good record riding for Carroll, winning nine races for him at 22 per cent, and of the 32 races he hasn’t won 18 of them have finished in the first four.
At 50s, he’s worth an each-way speculator.
Posted at 1700 BST on 17/06/2020
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