Racing betting tips: Wednesday May 12
1pt win Strait Of Hormuz in 1.40 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Woven in 2.10 York at 11/1 (bet365)
1pt win Molatham in 2.40 York at 8/1 (General)
Bolshoi Ballet put down a pretty serious Derby marker in Ireland over the weekend but you sense the eponymous race of the Dante Festival at York could hold real significance with Epsom in mind this year.
That’s going to be unmissable stuff come Thursday, but first up it’s day one of the high-class fixture and while the racecourse issued a positive update concerning the ground over the weekend, punters need to be nimble as some of the forecast showers are going to be really quite heavy and could have a material impact on the ground conditions.
It’s good, good to soft in places at the time of writing but we can scrap any chance of the real fast-ground, summer specialists dominating on the Knavesmire this week. With that in mind, I’m more than happy to have a bet in the Wednesday feature – the Group Two Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes – where July Cup hero Oxted is top-rated and bound to attract plenty of attention under Ryan Moore.
He’s something of a rarity being a son of Mayson who seems to much prefer the ground riding on top, and I was really disappointed with him at Newmarket, where not only beaten by Summerghand but almost collared for second by the 104-rated Emaraaty Ana, who reopposes here as a relative outsider.
Perhaps Oxted was still feeling the effects of a trip to Riyadh at the start of the season and he could clearly come on a lot for the Abernant run, but there are others here with untapped potential as well.
Chief among them is Tim Easterby’s Art Power, who does enjoy getting his toe into the ground and held his form really well after bursting onto the sprint scene when the 2020 campaign belatedly got going last summer. He won his novice at York as a two-year-old so I won’t be holding the Nunthorpe no-show against him, and overall he deserves to be going close in Group Two races this year.
The same can also be said of MOLATHAM, though, and at the prices he’s the horse to be backing for a Roger Varian team on a bit of a roll this spring.
In hindsight, the son of Night Of Thunder should probably have met Art Power in the big sprint on Champions Day at Ascot but connections opted for a crack at the QEII instead, which all but confirmed he doesn’t want to be campaigned at a mile, certainly not in testing conditions.
He’d shown all of his best form prior to that at seven furlongs but I suspect he could elevate himself to new levels back over six for the first time since his debut. He’s always shown bags of natural pace through his races and, perversely, it was presumably his smooth-travelling nature that encouraged Varian (and Jim Crowley) to think that he’d get a mile easily enough as he matured.
He went through last year’s Jersey Stakes like a really good horse before toughing it out in the soft ground and he’s going to be equally at home on the track here having landed the Convivial Maiden at York’s 2019 Ebor Festival.
There’s a lot to like with Molatham, including the fact he’s drawn slap-bang in the midst of the main pace horses (Emaraaty Ana, Brando, Art Power, Oxted), and he represents a Shadwell team that won this race with a similar type down in trip in 2017 (Tasleet). But, above all, his price looks just too big to ignore.
The Tattersalls Musidora Stakes looks likely to have a considerable bearing on the Oaks market and Teona versus Noon Star is a clash I’ll be watching with great interest. It wouldn’t be a huge shock to see the evidently well-regarded Senita put it all together and run very well for the Gosdens now fitted with a hood but, equally, it’s not hard to envisage her finishing last either so the Frankel filly is another to monitor for now, perhaps with something like the Ribblesdale in mind.
I’d rather focus on the two puzzles that kick off the card and the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap is packed with interesting four-year-olds.
One who appears to be overlooked in the betting is STRAIT OF HORMUZ, who looks well worth another chance over the mile and a half trip, and could end up getting a bit further later in the year too.
He was progressing nicely over a mile and 10 furlongs last year and went up 6lb for winning a deep contest against older horses at Doncaster in early-September. It’s always a good sign that a horse can tough it out against their elders and while only ninth back against his own age group in the Old Rowley Cup when last seen, he didn’t appear to handle the Rowley Mile particularly well on that occasion.
Nothing really came from off the pace in the race and I’m inclined to forgive him completely, especially having been dropped a pound ahead of his seasonal return.
Jedd O’Keeffe’s horse won on soft ground as a two-year-old during his time with Andrew Balding so conditions aren’t going to be an issue at all and this race could fall nicely into place for the hold-up performers with plenty of competition for the lead.
Michael Dods is something of a sprint king in Yorkshire these days and looks to have teed WOVEN up nicely for the Churchill Tyres Handicap.
Having his first run for the yard after changing hands in the autumn, the five-year-old overcame a sloppy start and a tricky draw (10) to split horses who were housed in stalls four and three at Redcar last month, and he was probably quite an unlucky loser on the day.
Despite being sluggish from the gates and initially racing away from most of where the action unfolded, Woven caught the eye cruising through the mid-part of the race before finishing off strongly to be beaten by just a neck.
He’s gone up 2lb to a mark of 90 for the trouble and would obviously have made the cut for this race without the rise, but no doubt connections will have been delighted and can use that effort as a platform from which to kick on.
The son of Dutch Art is out of a Pivotal mare and appears to handle all types of ground conditions, while he’s evidently well treated having been in the mid-90s for a couple of seasons when with David Simcock.
He also won at York (good to soft) back in his youth and although stall one is a potential hurdle to overcome in this event if finding himself out on the wing, there’s a fair chance he’ll get a decent tow into the action from perennial front-runner Hyperfocus in stall six.
They can often get rolling at halfway and never come back in sprint handicaps on the Knavesmire but wet weather should help blunt the real speedballs late in the piece, and the likes of George Bowen and Algar Lad have won this contest in recent years having been held up early which is likely to be the case for Woven, even if he is able to break on terms this time.
Published at 1455 BST on 11/05/21
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