Free racing betting tips: Value Bet preview for Classic Chase day at Warwick

Racing betting tips: Saturday, January 16

1pt win Optimise Prime in 2.25 Warwick at 16/1

1pt win Achille in 3.00 Warwick at 12/1

1pt win The Macon Lugnatic in 3.35 Warwick at 20/1

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There won’t be a better jumper than ACHILLE (12/1 General) in Saturday’s McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick and he’s well worth chancing after a layoff.

The grey unfortunately finished lame when second to West Approach at Cheltenham’s 2019 November meeting and hasn’t been seen since. Having said that, the assessor looks to have taken a real chance in allowing him to resume where he left off on a mark of 133, despite the third and fourth from Cheltenham – Potters Legend and Ramses De Teillee – winning four races of various descriptions between them since.

He is forced to carry a pound more in this company as he's fractionally out of the weights but it's hardly significant enough to be a major factor.

Regular readers will be well aware I don’t place much stock in the lack of a recent run being a serious issue for horses these days either, especially ones like Achille who has twice filled the runner-up spot after breaks of over 220 days in the past.

On top of that, Venetia Williams – who won the Classic Chase with Rigadin De Beauchene eight years ago – has her horses in superb form (not unusual for the time of year).

Didero Vallis also represents the yard in the weekend’s big handicap and he’s not without a chance back over regulation fences after not really enjoying himself in the Grand Sefton, but red-hot stable jockey Charlie Deutsch does stay loyal to the returning 11-year-old Achille.

He was really progressive in the 2018-19 season, winning three times including a narrow defeat of Ami Desbois over three miles on soft ground at Ffos Las, and there was every indication last time we saw him in action that he was still heading in the right direction.

The real clincher, together with the more than reasonable price, is that he could just get his own way out in front.

As touched upon, this horse jumps for fun and though the return of blinkers could quite conceivably relight the fire in Captain Chaos who tried to make all in this last year, the only other confirmed front-runner appears to be Storm Control, who is a converted two-miler and might just be ridden with a touch more restraint on his first try at a real marathon trip.

Hopefully that’ll leave the door open for Deutsch to potentially dictate matters on Achille, from which point this assured steeplechaser is going to be really dangerous.

In a typically competitive edition of the Grade Two Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle I can’t resist a bet on OPTIMISE PRIME (16/1 bet365, BetVictor) for trainer Ben Pauling, who won this race with subsequent Cheltenham Festival hero Willoughby Court in 2017.

There isn’t quite the same substance to the form of his 2021 representative, despite Willoughby Court having only come into the race on the back of winning a course and distance maiden hurdle, but I love how he’s been finishing his races.

In fact, his last three jumps at the final trio of hurdles in his most recent Hereford triumph were essentially the best leaps he’s produced on track so far and, much like his debut in this sphere at the end of November, he crossed the line with his ears pricked and any amount in hand.

Optimise Prime is rated just 128 which leaves him with a fair bit to find on official figures, but he’s priced accordingly and there’s a good chance he’s being underestimated in the market on potential alone.

Paisley Park won the same novices’ hurdle at Hereford during December before finishing second in the Leamington and it does look quite significant that Pauling has aimed him here rather than go down the handicap route, which must have been quite tempting.

The trainer is in pretty good form at the moment, winning four races with his hurdlers in the past week, and this one might take a bit of pegging back if getting into a good rhythm in another race seemingly lacking much in the way of early pace.

If you’ve not cottoned on already, I’m keen on prominent racers around Warwick, which is evidently really sharp in nature despite providing a good jumping test all the same, and it’s another Pauling runner in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle on which I’m taking a chance.

Tobefair knows these type of races inside out and won this particular one in 2017, while Potters Legend is really well treated as Christian Williams gives him a keep-fit spin back over hurdles ahead of Cheltenham (Cross Country) and Aintree (National).

But there are several nice, young horses in here who look capable of mixing with the old boys, including Fergal O’Brien’s Imperial Alcazar, comfortable Cheltenham winner Come On Teddy and Kepagge for David Pipe.

I’d also put THE MACON LUGNATIC (20/1 bet365) into that bracket as he’s got some really eyecatching pieces of form, most notably a bumper second to Umbrigado and a novice hurdle victory over Severano at Doncaster last February (where he was receiving 10lb, though the winner is now a 147-rated novice chaser).

He probably improved again slightly when following up the very next month back on Town Moor and he just looked way short of peak fitness when beaten out of sight on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham in October.

Perhaps something was troubling him as he’s had 84 days away but he returns over the same sort of trip with cheekpieces fitted and the yard in good shape again (Pauling’s 4-44 overall record when fitting first-time cheekpieces is nothing to write home about necessarily but they do include winners at 6/1, 12/1 and 20/1, all of which came in handicaps).

He’s yet another likely front-runner and while suggesting he’s going to get his own way in a 13-runner Pertemps qualifier is clearly a stretch, he should at least be in the right position when the taps are turned on.

If the fitting of headgear and switch to handicap company does perk him up again then a mark of 129 looks there for the taking on that earlier evidence and he seems perfectly at home on any sort of ground as well.

Mohaayed came closest to making the staking plan from the meeting at Market Rasen as he looks to get back in the winners' enclosure in the Mansionbet's Bet 10 Get 20 Hurdle.

He's been running really well in defeat since stepping up in trip this season and, as a result of Keeper Hill, Lil Rockerfeller and Vision Des Flos all looking slightly flattered by their current marks, Dan Skelton's former Festival hero seems to have On The Blind Side to beat.

He could well be up to the job getting 5lb from the Henderson horse but is just about passed over at 11/2 (5/1 generally).

Published at 1600 GMT on 15/01/21

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