Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of the Dante Festival at York on Wednesday.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet
1pt win Cosmeapolitan in 2.20 York at 16/1
1pt e.w Flying Pursuit in 2.55 York at 20/1
1pt win Tasleet in 3.30 York at 16/1
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William Haggas’ horses have been in fantastic form all season and the victory of Fastnet Tempest in the Victoria Cup on Saturday was a timely reminder about the overall well-being of his team.
The Newmarket-based Yorkshireman always enjoys his trips north to the Knavesmire and he brings four horses with live chances to day one of the Dante Festival on Wednesday.
Al Neksh, Battered and Theydon Grey have opportunities in three of the handicaps but arguably the most interesting of the quartet is TASLEET in the Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (3.30).
This horse showed plenty of speed as a juvenile when he won the valuable sales race at the Ebor meeting, following on from his excellent second to Shalaa in the Richmond Stakes, while he shaped like a sprinter when beaten a nose stepping up to seven furlongs in the Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket on his final start at two.
His three-year-old career started with victory in the three-runner Greenham at Chelmsford, again over seven, but a setback after that meant he only had one more start last year at Newmarket in October when he was eighth behind Aclaim in the Group Two Challenge Stakes, over seven furlongs once more.
He can be forgiven that run after a long lay-off, and his seasonal reappearance at Leicester on April 29 was much more like it, as he pushed Home Of The Brave pretty close over seven furlongs (traded as low as 2.12 in-running).
That rival is very good over that trip, especially at that course, and the pair pulled five lengths clear of the field. It was probably a career-best from Tasleet, one that suggests he’s fully deserving of his 110-rating, and he could well improve on that now he’s got a run under his belt.
Considering his Leicester run, his juvenile form and his pedigree, dropping back to six furlongs looks a good move, while the recent rain at York looks no bad thing as he likes a bit of cut in the ground.
I like the first-time application of cheekpieces with the drop in trip in mind, as well. Haggas dropped the first-time blinkered Sholaan from seven to six at this track a few years ago, and he won a good handicap by five lengths.
Brando is the one to beat on recent form, but he’s zero from five at York and I do wonder if he’s better on a stiffer track, while The Tin Man saddles a 5lb penalty for his Group One success at Ascot and that makes life difficult for him on his seasonal reappearance.
Those two take a big chunk out of the market and it looks wide open in behind. But considering Tasleet’s potential for improvement, he looks the one to be on at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, 188Bet).
Earlier on I like the look of Tim Easterby���s FLYING PURSUIT at 20/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill, Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4) in the Infinity Tyres Handicap (2.55) and he’s worth an each-way bet.
Easterby won this race last year with See The Sun and he could well retain the trophy with Flying Pursuit as he looks like he’s finally going to get his ground.
Conditions have eased on the Knavesmire following 18 millimetres of rain this week and with more precipitation forecast throughout Wednesday there could well be some significant cut in the conditions come race time.
That is good news for Flying Pursuit as he needs a bit of soft in the ground to be at his very best and he’s unbeaten in two starts on soft and heavy.
He’s looking well-handicapped, too. A winner last season off a mark of 84 at Ripon, he’s only 3lb higher on Wednesday and he ran a close second off a 4lb higher mark at York last September with some good sprinters beaten in behind.
Two defeats this season aren’t a concern considering he usually needs a start or two to get fit and his latest Chelmsford race, where his fifth was an improvement on his reappearance, has already produced a couple of subsequent winners.
It’s hard to weigh up exactly where you need to be drawn in these big York sprints, but stall three on the far side could well be ideal for Flying Pursuit.
The low numbers on the far side prevailed in this race last year and with plenty of pace drawn low again (Muntadab, Watchable and Related should all be up there on the far side) it could well be the place to be once more.
Finally, it could be worth taking a chance on COSMEAPOLITAN (18/1 bet365, 16/1 generally) in the opening Sky Bet First Race Special Handicap at 2.20.
Alan King’s horses remain in great nick in both codes and this horse caught the eye at the Guineas meeting when he travelled well over a mile and a half before losing a few positions late on.
On that evidence he’s worth a go over 10 furlongs, especially if there’s a bit of cut in the ground, and his proven stamina could well turn out to be a key asset if they go hard enough up front in this big field.
Stall 18 might not be the bad draw it once was on the round course at York, especially if they drift towards the stands’ side, and King has previous when it comes to nicking a prize off the Flat trainers at this meeting, having saddled Master Blueyes to victory here last year.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +342.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 16/05/17.