Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival day 4 tips
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on the final day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival, with Tommy Silver fancied.
Value Bet Cheltenham Day Four Selections
Things turned around dramatically for Willie Mullins on Thursday as Yorkhill, Un De Sceaux and Nichols Canyon bagged the Closutton handler an incredible Grade One treble following a relatively torrid couple of days.
The best might still be to come, too, as his Djakadam goes for glory in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday. Second in the past two renewals, he has plenty in his favour this time around and the market now makes him joint-favourite with Colin Tizzard’s big two, Native River and Cue Card, at around the 4/1 mark.
Djakadam looks the most likely winner to me. His whole season has revolved around this race and with just two runs under his belt for the campaign he’s fresher than his market rivals. There’s not much between the trio in terms of ability, but that freshness could be the key factor when they’re rolling up the hill.
Last year he had an unideal preparation after he cut himself when falling on trials day, so much so that the first fence he jumped after that was the first in the Gold Cup. He put up a fantastic performance, finishing second to an above-average winner in Don Cossack, and with a smoother preparation this time around it would be no surprise if he improved on that effort, not that he would necessarily need to.
With Mullins and Walsh back in the groove, punters will be latching onto him and he looks the most likely favourite, as well as the most likely winner.
I don’t want to take him on, although Sizing John and Minella Rocco were considered. There’s nothing wrong with Sizing John’s form and he’s improved for going up in trip. He could run well at 9/1 and, on his four-miler win from Native River last season, an improved showing from Minella Rocco would not be a surprise.
Earlier on Dan Skelton goes for back-to-back wins in the County Hurdle and his North Hill Harvey has a very similar profile to Superb Story having been put away since the Greatwood. He won that race while Superb Story was second, and while his stablemate went up 9lb North Hill Harvey went up 8lb.
He has a fine chance but has been well found in the market at 7/1 and I would rather back Philip Hobbs’ WAIT FOR ME at 20/1 (general price).
Long-suffering regular readers will know this beast has become a bit of a cliff horse for me and there’s no doubt he’s in the last chance saloon. But I have to back him on Friday with several things in his favour.
For starters, his no show in the Betfair Hurdle means he’s dropped 3lb to 135 so he’s 4lb lower than when he was a good fourth in this race last year behind Superb Story.
That run proves he’s at home in the hustle and bustle of a big-field Festival handicap and it also shows he’s happy on good ground, too. He can be keen, so hopefully the blood and thunder of this race will help him settle and with the tongue-tie now added to the hood he’s got all the headgear on to help this tricky sort apply his best.
He’s been disappointing this season, there is no doubt, but with the handicapper’s assistance he now has a chance to finally put it altogether on the big stage and at 20s he’s just big enough to take the plunge.
The other one I like at the prices is Dr Richard Newland’s VOSNE ROMANEE at 33/1 (general ¼ 1,2,3,4).
This horse loves good ground and he hosed up at Perth last April, winning as he liked from a horse that franked the form on his very next start.
He went up 13lb for that run, but he absolutely deserved the hike and he hasn’t been seen over hurdles since.
His well-being is not in question, though, following a pleasing spin on the all-weather at Wolverhampton last month where he was well-backed before justifying 15/8 favouritism with a comfortable win.
That should’ve put him spot on for this and he’s a strong traveller who looks the type to thrive in a strongly-run contest like the County Hurdle. He’s got course form as well, after a good second at the April meeting last year.
Finally, I’ll take two against the field in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at 4.50.
Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last four years and while his Lac Fontana is interesting off the same mark he won the County Hurdle off I prefer the claims of his stablemate TOMMY SILVER at 20/1 (general odds).
He was midfield in that really hot Triumph Hurdle this time last year and he put in a career-best performance when winning at Taunton last time.
I liked the way he finished his race that day and it was a performance that suggested he’d improve again up in trip to 2m4f for the first time.
He’s related to horses that excelled over similar trips and the 6lb rise for his latest win wasn’t harsh at all with the potential improvement at the distance in mind.
The Irish challenge is strong and Mullins has a great record in this race as well, winning it three times with horses that went on to win at the very top level.
Battleford could be his number one hope this year off a mark of 135, while Castello Sforza has been on my radar for a while after three eye-catching runs in maiden hurdles.
The big prices have disappeared about him, however, and at 20/1 (general) I’d rather back Tony Martin’s I SHOT THE SHERIFF.
He’s not got the profile of your typical Martin Pipe winner being 10-years-old, but he is very lightly-raced for his age and he has been thought good enough to run in a couple of Grade Ones throughout his nine-race hurdling career.
Rated 146 at his best, he gets in here off 139 and he was a big eye-catcher behind Hidden Cyclone at Leopardstown just 12 days ago when he travelled nicely under Davy Russell who looked after him in the closing stages as the winner got away.
That was a pleasing reappearance after nearly two years off the track and it should’ve got him nicely tuned up for this assignment, where the 2m4f trip and good ground look ideal.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +371.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 16/03/17.