Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets at Aintree on Saturday including the Randox Health Grand National.
Value Bet Selections
After three previous attempts in the Randox Health Grand National SAINT ARE has racked up plenty of experience in the race and he can finally put it all to good use at Aintree on Saturday afternoon.
Tom George’s 11-year-old won twice at this meeting in his younger days when with Tim Vaughan, firstly the Grade One Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in 2011 and then the John Smith’s Handicap Chase a year later, while he’s been ninth, second and pulled up in the National since then.
That ‘PU’ last year can easily be forgiven on account of the soft ground, as he really does thrive on better conditions with the sun on his back and the drying turf this week is very much in his favour.
His second behind Many Clouds two years ago was a fine effort and one that proved he had all the qualities for the test. He jumped well, stayed well and was closing on the winner on the run-in, while he sported cheekpieces that day after they were left off for his prep run.
The relevance of that is the fresh headgear sparked a top performance out of him and George has reached for first-time blinkers on this occasion, while canny veteran Davy Russell, who has never won the National, takes the reins for the first time.
Just 4lb higher than when he was second to Many Clouds, Saint Are is handicapped to run a huge race and crucially his advancing years haven’t seen him regress.
Okay, he fell at the first in the Becher Chase in December, but that was just unfortunate, and he proved his current well-being when running a cracking second to Killala Quay at Doncaster in February.
That was a fine preparation for his fourth go at the Grand National and, considering his previous efforts over these fences (also third in a Becher), that recent evidence that he’s still on grand terms with himself and with the ground coming right for him, he’s a big price at 40/1 (general ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5).
If you like a story in the National, Saint Are has one. George’s father-in-law is former trainer John Edwards, who trained Little Polveir and ran him three times in the National without success. Sold to Toby Balding two months before the 1989 National, Little Polveir went onto win the race at his fourth attempt…
Last year we had a memorable story as Mouse Morris, who tragically lost his son the summer before, won the race with Gigginstown’s Rule The World. “We got a bit of help from somewhere,” he said afterwards.
Morris has a couple of good chances again this year thanks to two former Irish Grand National winners, Rogue Angel and THUNDER AND ROSES, and it wouldn’t be the greatest of shocks if he won the race for the second year running.
While Rogue Angel has been trimmed into 25/1 this week, Thunder And Roses remains available at 33/1 (general ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5) and it just looks too big a price.
The nine-year-old was a novice when he won the Irish National for Sandra Hughes two years ago and he beat last year’s Aintree winner Rule The World off level weights that day.
He gets in here 4lb lower than Rule The World did last year, however, and while that’s a sign that he hasn’t progressed since his big Fairyhouse win there have been some clear signals that he’s on the way back to his very best under the care of Morris this season.
His second at Fairyhouse in December over 3m5f was another indication that he’s at his best when the emphasis is on stamina, and the good-to-yielding conditions that day gives hope that he’ll be fine on the ground this weekend.
But his most striking performance came in the Bobbyjo Chase in February. It’s usually a good National trial – Hedgehunter won both races in 2005 – and Thunder And Roses got into a great rhythm up front under Davy Russell, only giving way to Pleasant Company after the last with the pair miles clear of the rest.
Thunder And Roses gets a 5lb pull at the weights with Pleasant Company for a half-length beating, so quite why he’s over twice the price of that rival is hard to fathom.
The one negative is that he was pulled up on his only start over the Aintree fences in the 2015 Becher, but he wasn’t himself anywhere that season as he initially struggled following his rise in the weights post-Fairyhouse.
There’s no reason why he shouldn’t thrive for this test, as he’s been jumping well in the main this season and it’s hard to believe he won’t have the required stamina.
Those two each-way bets will do for me, though the shortlist wasn’t so short, as always in this fantastic race.
Blaklion would be my pick from those at the top of the market as he’s classy, looks well-handicapped and stays well. He’s yet to face the Aintree fences, but he’s a nimble jumper and his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, confident as always, knows exactly what it takes to win this.
Bishops Road is well treated on pretty recent form and he’s another that stays well. I thought there were plenty of positives to take from his Haydock third last time and Kerry Lee is skillful at preparing a dour stayer for a big test.
In the end, the lack of rain put me off his chance, but at 66/1 I can see why some would take the risk that he’ll get away with it.
The Last Samuri looks a solid bet to go well also, though being 12lb higher than when second last year makes things really difficult for him.
Grand National verdict:
1. SAINT ARE
2. Thunder And Roses
3. Blaklion
4. Bishops Road
5. The Last Samuri
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Elsewhere on the card NO HASSLE HOFF looks very well handicapped in the opening Gaskells Handicap Hurdle at 1.45.
Dan Skelton’s novice hasn’t looked back since being stepped up in trip at the start of the season and his form in graded events gives him a fine chance off an opening mark of 134.
Third to Wholestone and Ami Desbois at Cheltenham in December, those two both finished in the top five in the Albert Bartlett and the latter won a handicap at Wetherby off 137 prior to that.
Then in the River Don at Doncaster at the end of January he just lost out in a prolonged battle with Nicky Henderson’s Constantine Bay, who was fourth in the Grade One Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on Friday.
Duel At Dawn was over 13 lengths behind the front two on Town Moor, and he’s subsequently won a Bangor handicap off 130.
Last time, at Haydock in February, he lost out to The World’s End, who won the aforementioned Sefton on Friday.
Whichever way you look at it, No Hassle Hoff is looking nicely treated and he’s just the sort who will cope with the switch to handicaps as he’s an uncomplicated type that stays well.
He’s been backed but the 7/1 still readily available is a fair price.
Finally, POTTERS LEGEND is worth a bet at 12/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) in the Betway Handicap Chase at 3.40.
Lucy Wadham’s novice was a touch unlucky in the Kim Muir after being hampered before a mistake three out, but he still ran on well and looked a likely winner in the closing stages (traded at 1.44 on Betfair) before finishing a close fourth.
The way he finished his race after that costly mistake was really encouraging and cheekpieces are applied to focus him further.
With the ground ideal and the slight drop in trip not a bother to him, he looks likely to go well in a race in which in-form improvers are few and far between.
I Just Know is one of those, and he should go well despite a 10lb rise, but preference is for Potters Legend with that excellent Cheltenham run off just a 1lb lower mark in mind.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +354.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 07/04/17.