Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day three of the Ebor Festival at York

Recommended bets, Friday August 21

1pt win King’s Caper in 1.45 York at 10/1

1pt win Grand Rock in 4.50 York at 12/1

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Friday’s York card doesn’t appear the most punter-friendly at first glance but there are a couple of races that stand out, including the opening Sky Bet Handicap.

Run over a trip fractionally short of a mile and a half, this is open to three-year-olds and up but hasn’t been won by anything from the Classic crop since 2009.

There have been some fairly well-fancied ones beaten down the years (Londinium fifth and Speedo Boy seventh at 6/1 co-fav and 13/2 respectively in 2017, for example) but the three-year-old representation has generally been low in terms of numbers during the last decade and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the trend bucked sooner rather than later.

Especially so given this season’s edition sees the three-year-old Zabeel Champion clear market leader with Ryan Moore in the saddle.

A step up to 12 furlongs was closely considered for him heading into Goodwood but he stuck to the trip over which he’d won the big three-year-old handicap at Newmarket’s July Festival and that, coupled with an unusually awkward start, probably did for him in the end.

It was another fine effort, however, going down just three-quarters of a length despite having to come wide into the straight and taking a while to pick up when initially asked.

Everything points to him relishing the extra yardage (he’s a half-brother to high-class, middle-distance filly Dame Malliot) and flatter track on offer at York, while a 3lb rise leaves him just 10lb higher than for Newmarket which looks perfectly fair.

However, it could be worth chancing the supposed Mark Johnston second-string KING'S CAPER (10/1 General) under the stable’s number one rider Joe Fanning.

He’s also three and able to benefit from the significant 9lb weight-for-age allowance, but he has a fair bit more experience under his belt relative to Zabeel Champion which should stand him in good stead. And I make him a fascinating contender from a tactical perspective too.

With Dash Of Spice taken out in favour of a crack at Saturday’s Sky Bet Ebor, the race is shorn of a potential front-runner and both the Johnston horses look like taking up prominent positions which will give them a distinct advantage in this line-up.

One of the key dangers on form has to be Alfaatik, who makes his handicap debut after a long layoff having run in a couple of Classic trials last spring. John Gosden has obviously kept the four-year-old gelding in training for good reason and he could do some damage off a mark of 94, but the time away from the track clearly leaves him vulnerable to being a little fresh first time out, and he’s not the only one who would have preferred a more guaranteed pace to aim at.

The temptingly-handicapped Koeman was finishing well in a slowly-run affair at Ascot last time and needs things to drop right, while Dark Jedi has looked capable off his revised rating despite his last two races not really being run to suit.

Entangling remains a fascinating prospect but is another who would prefer to be able to ghost into things from off a good gallop, and it just doesn’t look like there will be any pressure on the Johnston duo, who won’t be easy to overhaul if allowed to dictate.

There’s a pretty strong argument for King’s Caper making the running, as he did to great effect on a couple of occasions as a juvenile, and he’s going to be dangerous if that’s the case.

Without a win so far this year, he went closest to rectifying that when beaten a nose in the Group Two Italian Derby under Frankie Dettori in July and he’s since run an eyecatching race in a 12-furlong three-year-old-only handicap at Glorious Goodwood.

He got trapped in a tricky spot behind another stablemate in Glenties, who weakened at a crucial stage, and consequently never really got a fair crack at it as some of the speedier types came over the top of him with a furlong to travel.

He was sticking on extremely well close home, though, ultimately beaten four and a quarter lengths in sixth, and appeared to finish with a bit of petrol left in the tank.

He's been dropped 1lb for that which seems generous given he’s only ever run in three handicaps in his life and he’s also proven on ground ranging from good to firm to soft, so underfoot conditions hold no fears.

Of those not yet mentioned, Restorer looks in exceptionally good form this year and has to be respected, but he’s also likely to settle nearer the rear of the field and at the prices King’s Caper has an awful lot going for him.

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Opposing Battash with something in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes doesn’t interest me and the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes is a minefield with all of them open to stacks of improvement.

The most experienced in the Gimcrack field, Yazaman, still looks a top prospect and probably remains the one to beat but we can give him a swerve at 9/2.

Stratum (20/1) came fractionally closer to the staking plan in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup, but it’s quite hard to pick holes in the top two in the betting without Stradivarius in their way, and it’s another no-bet race.

The other one I do want to focus on, though, is the Sky Bet Mile Stakes which unfortunately doesn’t make the cut for ITV.

The valuable handicap for three-year-olds is one of the more attractive betting races of the day and one in which William Haggas runs three.

Johan may be worth another shot off his current mark after struggling on quick ground last time and Cold Front steps into this sphere with a revised rating of 91 after bolting up in a Haydock maiden, with the second subsequently winning easily as well.

But GRAND ROCK (12/1 General) might just be able to outclass them all.

He’s right up in the weights here and more than merits that position based on his quality juvenile form, when winning two small, bad ground events at Hamilton and Epsom before running third to King Carney in a Listed race at Pontefract.

It’s no real surprise, having done well over a mile under testing conditions at two, that Haggas has stepped him up to 10 furlongs this time around but he’s looked something of a non-stayer in both outings and could really flourish now dropped back to a strongly-run mile.

There are mixed messages in his pedigree, with Ebor fancy Alright Sunshine among his five winning half-brothers, but a couple of them were far more speed-orientated and it looks like the son of Acclamation may be cut from a similar cloth.

He's dropped 2lb following perfectly respectable efforts at Royal Ascot and Newmarket so far this season and the first run was really encouraging with this test in mind, making plenty of the running from stall 17, kicking into a clear lead two furlongs out before being swallowed up late.

Effectively racing in isolation towards the far rail, he was collared by Highland Chief and Tritonic down the centre of the course with half a furlong to travel and ended up a tired fifth.

That Golden Gates Handicap has only thrown up one subsequent winner but simplifying to that extent doesn’t do it justice as Highland Chief has been second in the Gordon Stakes as well as Wednesday’s Great Voltigeur here, while runner-up Tritonic was second again behind Subjectivist in the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton.

The fourth home HMS President has been beaten a neck at Newbury off the same mark and put up 5lb, while the sixth Cepheus ran second at Kempton before defying a higher rating when scoring at Glorious Goodwood.

In short, the form is absolutely bombproof and, at the prices, it looks well worth excusing Grand Rock a slightly lesser effort last time out.

Other bonus factors are that Danny Tudhope – in for the ride for the first time on this horse – has a fantastic 30% strike-rate (51-169) for the yard, and Haggas also has a really tidy 19.81% record (41-207) when applying cheekpieces for the first time.

If you focus purely on York then that record increases to 25% (4/16), one of which came via Queensberry Rules at this meeting in 2014, and I can see the headgear sharpening this horse up significantly.

Posted at 1530 BST on 19/08/20

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