Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot has four Value Bet selections for day one of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival including a Jonjo O'Neill-trained handicapper.
Recommended Bets: Cheltenham Festival Day One
1pt e.w. Elixir D’Ainay in 1.30 Cheltenham at 20/1
1pt win Esprit Du Large in 2.10 Cheltenham at 12/1
1pt e.w. Quarenta in 2.50 Cheltenham at 40/1
1pt win Hold The Note in 4.50 Cheltenham at 15/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Cheltenham Festival is here again, one of the best punting weeks of the year with good horses at great prices everywhere you look. The Grade One races are fabulous and the handicaps offer the most devilish puzzles of the entire season. Breathe it in.
Picking your battles is key unless you’re betting in every race. That’s not an approach I like to take and I’m happy to sit out the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (I don’t want to take on the brilliant Benie Des Dieux but personally couldn’t back any horse at odds-on at the Festival) and the National Hunt Chase which looks tricky to call.
The Unibet Champion Hurdle was harder to leave out as it looks such a wide-open renewal, but I couldn’t really take issue with the market. Cilaos Emery is the best horse in the race on his chasing form, but at 13/2 he looks about right given he needs to hurdle better and giving 7lb to Epatante won't be easy if she handles Cheltenham after all.
Onto the bets and we'll dive straight into the first handicap of the meeting with QUARENTA making plenty of appeal each-way at 40/1 (bet365 ¼ 1,2,3,4,5 – Ladbrokes, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5, 33s General) in the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50).
Jonjo O'Neill has had a really good season so far and he has a terrific record in this race, winning it three times with Wichita Lineman, Alfie Sherrin and Holywell, with the latter two either wearing headgear for the first time or being the subject of an accoutrements switch.
It's something that O'Neill has done with great success at Cheltenham - think Creon in the 2004 Pertemps and Exotic Dancer in the 2006 Paddy Power Gold Cup, horses who both won in reapplied headgear after a long time without any aids.
Quarenta hasn’t worn cheekpieces for 15 starts, so it’s fascinating to see the sheepskin reappear for this contest and I think O’Neill has applied them to try and help him travel and keep with them when the screw is turned in the middle part of the race.
This test looks ideal for him, as he's a dour stayer and his best run of the season came at Kempton in a good handicap chase at Christmas when he chased a frantic pace throughout. Speredek took them along at a good clip before the baton was passed to Highway One O One and Quarenta loved it, trading at 2.1 in the run before finishing a head second to Just A Sting.
He’s just 2lb higher on Tuesday and he finished with such a rattle at Kempton another furlong on a stiffer track looks absolutely ideal for him. You have to forgive him a below-par effort in the Sky Bet Chase but I can, as that was probably too much of a speed test on better ground and he did at least get dropped 2lb after his Doncaster appearance.
Harry Cobden takes the ride, a top jockey that’s never ridden for Jonjo, and a confident, waiting ride is just what the doctor ordered.
There are loads with chances in this race including Discorama, The Conditional, Kildisart, Cobra De Mai and Elwood, but the 40s about Quarenta makes him the bet of the race for my money.
The meeting kicks off with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30) and Willie Mullins’ Asterion Forlonge has been backed into clear favouritism.
This isn't a surprise as he was really impressive in Grade One company last time out at Leopardstown, winning as he liked with the promise of plenty more to come and the soft ground looks very much in his favour.
He looks the one to beat but the one thing that niggles about the market leaders is their lack of experience. Asterion Forlonge has had just two starts over hurdles and Shishkin is the same (when completing), while the last 11 Supreme winners had had at least four starts over timber.
Experience has been key in the past and it could be again. It's the first race of the Festival, they’ll likely go hard and in soft ground, too, and for this reason alone I think it’s worth looking for one at a price.
The one that appeals is Mullins’ second string ELIXIR D’AINAY at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).
He’s a second-season novice thanks to a setback last year but he’s shown a high level of form this campaign, including in victory at Naas where he beat Longhouse Poet before a defeat to Envoi Allen at the same track.
The only time he’s encountered soft ground was in his win at Naas and such conditions at two miles could well bring out the very best in him. He wasn’t beaten far at all by Envoi Allen and displayed plenty of pace that day, while a feature of his performances has been his slick hurdling.
Last time out he was too keen to do himself justice in a 2m6f Grade One at Leopardstown, but he wasn’t beaten far at all and the drop right back to the minimum distance looks ideal.
Fifth best in on official ratings, he hasn’t got anywhere near as much to find as the market would have you believe and Tuesday’s test could be absolutely ideal.
Mark Walsh knows him well having ridden him in all of his starts for Mullins and his burgeoning record at the Cheltenham Festival means he comes into the opener full of confidence. Elixir D’Ainay can give him a great spin and he looks a good each-way bet.
The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (2.10) looks a good renewal, but unusually for this race there is an absence of top-class hurdlers.
Fakir D’Oudairies was a Grade Two winner over timber as a juvenile and was second at the top level, while Global Citizen, Rouge Vif and Brewin’upastorm had good novice hurdling form to their names, as well.
But there's nothing of the ilk of a Champion Hurdle horse in here, so it’s worth judging these solely on their novice chasing form this season and with that in mind I like the look of ESPRIT DU LARGE at 12/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Boylesports).
Evan Williams has had a fine season and this horse has been one of the highlights thanks to his Grade One win in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown in December.
That was his third chase start and he improved again from his Exeter win, his bold jumping a real feature of the performance as well as the way he finished his race up the hill in soft ground. He can improve again and with conditions ideal he's worth a bet at 12s, as he too has very little to find, if anything, with the market principals.
Finally, HOLD THE NOTE looks the one to be on in the Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase (4.50) at 15/2 (General).
There is just 6lb between the whole field here so you’ve got to look for the horses with Grade One potential and Hold The Note ticks that box after his close second in a Grade Two at Warwick last time.
He jumped beautifully that day but got outstayed by a horse with plenty of stamina in Two For Gold and the drop back in trip looks ideal. He beat Highest Sun by 18 lengths off levels at Warwick and only has to give him 5lb here, which is an indication of how well treated he could be.
Mick Channon has a good record in this race having trained Knock House to be fifth and Mister Whitaker to win it and Hold The Note looks to have all the talent to follow in the latter’s hoofprints.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 09/03/20
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +342.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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