Ben Linfoot struck with 14/1 winner Bentelimar on day one of Aintree - don't miss his day two selections for Friday's handicaps including the Topham.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Day Two Aintree
1pt win Massini’s Trap in 1.45 Aintree at 25/1
1pt win Sumkindofking in 1.45 Aintree at 25/1
1pt win Highland Lodge (non-runner)
1pt win Mystifiable in 4.05 Aintree at 33/1
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There are another four Grade One contests at Aintree on Friday including a fascinating JLT Melling Chase which sees Champion Chase runner-up Min and Ryanair Chase winner Balko Des Flos collide.
It’ll be interesting to see if Min gets the trip at this level, something that isn’t a concern with his main market rival Balko Des Flos. With the latter clear second best in the market at around 9/4 you could argue he’s underestimated.
The way he saw off Un De Sceaux at Cheltenham was impressive and he’s improved to a new level this season, a level that’s at least on a par with Min’s. Given this is over 2m4f, perhaps he should be favourite.
It’s the handicaps that I’m drawn to, though, especially the wonderful Randox Health Topham Chase over the National fences at 4.05.
There is often plenty of carnage in this 2m5f contest and for at least one of my bets I want a prominent horse that can stay out of trouble on my side, preferably one that loves the fences, is well-handicapped and clearly stays the trip.
Not too much to ask and the one that fits the bill is fence specialist HIGHLAND LODGE, a horse well worth backing at 16/1 (Betfred, 14s General).
Four of his last six races have been over the famous spruce and they have resulted in a win in the 2015 Becher off a mark of 132, a second in the same race a year later off 137, a pulled up effort in the 2017 National and a third off 138 in the most recent Becher.
That last effort suggests a couple of things; that he’s still capable over these fences at the age of 12, as he jumped brilliantly that day, and that he might need the drop in trip after he faded after the last.
Dropped 3lb since then, he looks well-handicapped on his National course form off 135 and a bold showing from the front end looks a likely scenario.
I want two strings to my bow in a race like this and at 33/1 (General) MYSTIFIABLE could go very well for the Fergal O’Brien stable.
This 10-year-old has dropped to his last winning mark of 126 and that victory came in this month last year at Perth, while he hasn’t run badly at all in three goes this campaign.
One of those runs came in the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree in December and he took to them well, trading at 3.25 in-running on Betfair when he joined in for the lead between two and three out.
He didn’t quite get home in the heavy ground that day, but he shaped well and the slightly better conditions off 4lb lower could help him enormously. He’s worth a bold roll of the dice at big prices.
Earlier on the card begins with the Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f, with 73 yards added to the race distance due to rail movements.
The first thing to say is there looks to be plenty of pace on in this, with Jenkins, Storm Home, Lough Derg Spirit, Landin and Cyrius Moriviere all likely to be up there from the outset.
It could play into the hands of a hold-up perfomer, then, and that’s good news for James Nash’s MASSINI’S TRAP, available at 25s (bet365, Boylesports).
He loves Aintree, as he won very easily over this course and distance in the October of 2016 before running third in the same race this season when he travelled into things beautifully from off the pace off a mark of 136.
That’s the rating he runs off on Friday and a stronger gallop than he got that day will play to his strengths.
Given his affinity for the track, it would be no surprise if his season has revolved around Aintree, so I’m happy to draw a line through his below-par effort at Leopardstown last time when he was way down the field in the handicap hurdle won by Total Recall.
His trainer Nash is adept a readying one for this track, as he has had two winners, three seconds and a third from just 15 runners in Liverpool, so at a big price Massini’s Trap is worth getting on side.
I was going to back him each-way and leave it at that, but at 25/1 (bet365, 20s General), I can’t resist splitting stakes with Tom George’s SUMKINDOFKING.
George has a terrific record at this meeting, including with Saint Are for Sumkindofking’s new owner David Fox, and this horse was backed into 8/1 co-favourite for this race last year before finishing 12th.
Not for the first time he flattered to deceive, as he often travels strongly before weakening, but a career-low handicap mark of 126 could help him as well as the wind operation.
The ground is a question mark with him as he’d prefer better conditions, but in the hope that the wind surgery can unlock the talent he’s hinted at on occasions, he’s worth the risk at a big price.
Posted at 1700 BST on 12/04/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +391.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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