Free Ladbrokes Trophy racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day two of Newbury Winter Carnival

Recommended bets, Saturday November 28

1pt win Court Master in 1.15 Newbury at 9/1

1pt win Rathhill in 1.50 Newbury at 12/1

0.5pt e.w. The Hollow Ginge in 3.00 Newbury at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt win Cool Mix in 3.15 Newcastle at 12/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

It's not unusual for one of the biggest betting races of the National Hunt season, but there’s no escaping the fact that most of the juice has been squeezed from the betting market for Saturday’s Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.

Favouritism has chopped and changed a number of times over the past few weeks and while Vinndication occupies the hot-seat as the music stops at the time of publication on Friday afternoon, the betting could clearly look completely different again come raceday morning. And who knows what will happen in the show.

On Tuesday November 10 I made the case for Two For Gold winning and I’m obviously pleased to see him in the line-up, which didn’t look odds-on at one stage, but with a fresh view on the eve of the race, and with Kim Bailey's horse now among a whole host of others seemingly really well found by punters, the one who appeals most is rank outsider THE HOLLOW GINGE (66/1 Sky Bet, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6).

Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden this horse for his past three career wins and has opted to head to Bangor instead which, admittedly, isn’t the strongest start when it comes to making a case. However, T-D jnr is presumably in search of winners as he looks to build something approaching a jockeys’ title challenge and, on paper at least, has a seriously strong book of rides on the Dee this weekend. You can clearly understand the thought process there.

So in comes Gavin Sheehan, a good rider of this track and one with quite an eyecatching record for the Twiston-Davies yard – he has a win strike-rate of 36% and has in total ridden four winners, two seconds, two thirds and two fourths from just 11 attempts for the team.

The Hollow Ginge has barely had a mention in the build-up to this race but we’ve been here before with the same connections at Newbury when Splash Of Ginge won the 2014 Betfair Hurdle at 33/1 under Ryan Hatch.

The mud was flying that day and it will be levelled at anyone wishing to back The Hollow Ginge that he, too, is a happy horse on bad ground. There just isn’t enough evidence to fully convince me of the theory he’s an out-and-out soft ground specialist, though, especially as his two previous outings on good going have produced a novice hurdle third at Southwell and a handicap hurdle fourth at Aintree, when appearing perfectly at home in the conditions.

He was hit and miss during his novice chase campaign last year but won a couple of times en route to the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham where he wasn’t convincing at all and eventually pulled-up.

But the wins included a seven-length success at Worcester, where The Conditional was back in third, and he went on to be beaten a head at Aintree by Henry De Bromhead’s Plan Of Attack, who subsequently finished third in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown and fourth in the Kim Muir at the Festival.

On that form alone a mark of 144 shouldn’t be totally beyond The Hollow Ginge, who unfortunately unseated Jamie Bargary at the first fence at Kelso on last month’s seasonal return but otherwise had looked a pretty assured jumper of a fence, often racing up with, or close to, the pace. A Grand National tilt is reportedly the long-term, spring target.

The fitting of a visor this weekend appears an attempt to sharpen him up and it’s something the stable has done to good effect in the past. Three times T-D snr has turned to a first-time visor in races at Newbury and all three runners have been placed, while all four of the trainer's 'v1' winners down the years have come in handicaps, featuring Same Difference in the 2013 Kim Muir.

So in a race appearing to lack an obvious star, and the likes of Cloth Cap, Secret Investor and Two For Gold now no more than fairly priced, it looks well worth casting the net wider and a small each-way bet with the firms offering six places is advised.

COURT MASTER (9/1 bet365) is one to be on earlier on the card at Newbury.

He goes into the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase on the back of a course fourth over a slightly shorter trip at the last meeting, and I suspect it’s red-hot form that should be followed.

The bold-jumping Morning Vicar made all the running to lead home four promising seven-year-olds who all look to be going places to varying degrees, while the eventual seventh was Barton Knoll, who provided a timely boost to the strength of the race when winning well at Doncaster on Friday.

Like many others trained by Michael Scudamore, Court Master is going to be a stayer in time and it simply looked like he was outpaced last time after Nico De Boinville dictated matters to perfection on the winner.

We already know Court Master wants more of a test than that, having won his point over three miles and landed a novices’ handicap chase over Saturday’s trip (just short of three miles) here last December.

He won like a well-handicapped chaser on his comeback at Warwick in October too, when scoring from a mark of 120, and is only 7lb higher despite that eyecatching recent run and a head second to Fidux at Market Rasen sandwiched in between.

Fidux did his bit for Court Master’s overall body of work with a creditable effort in the big handicap chase won by Clondaw Castle here on Friday, and at 9/1 he’s a great bet.

Milkwood got the nod in this column ahead of Cheltenham's Greatwood Hurdle and, a non-runner there, it's not hard to see him giving Marie's Rock something to think about in the Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Hurdle, especially give how well his Ffos Las form has worked out.

But he's not 33/1 here and does face some really promising horses as well as the favourite so I'll have to sit and suffer if he goes and bolts up off a mark of 141, which isn't beyond the realms of possibility at all.

One horse I don't want to see win without carrying some of my cash is RATHHILL (12/1 General) in the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle.

A J P McManus recruit from the point-to-point scene, he was pretty well regarded and won a good maiden hurdle here in December 2018 before running no sort of race when sent off 6/5 favourite for the heavy ground Tolworth won by Elixir De Nutz.

He picked up an injury that day and only made the track twice last term, once at Down Royal 12 months ago, before returning in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham.

He was never a factor there as a 25/1 shot and clearly has questions to answer now, but he's been dropped a couple of pounds to a mark of 133 and trainer Nicky Henderson has won the past two runnings of this race with Champ and The Cashel Man.

It may well prove fellow McManus runner Champagne Platinum is the clear stable number one under De Boinville, but I'm far from convinced and Jonjo O'Neill is a fascinating booking for Rathhill, who goes up in trip for the first time.

O'Neill has barely ridden for Henderson (0-2) but it's surely a matter of time before he's banging in winners for the yard in these silks on a regular basis and the jockey's overall Newbury record is strong (7-39).

This horse is likely to go one of two ways in the betting, but I can't resist a win-only bet at 12s.

I’m not desperately comfortable seeking to oppose Epatante in the Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, in spite of reports suggesting she could improve a fair bit for the run, and I’d much rather have a bet on COOL MIX (12/1 General) in the Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase.

He’s always had a hint of class and was actually second to Pym in an Ayr bumper in his youth – he now gets 22lb from Henderson’s recent Sandown winner having just crept into this race at the foot of the weights (Shantou Village, below him on the card, is 3lb wrong).

The grey Cool Mix is seemingly better than ever following a wind operation early in the year, building on his comeback second at Kelso to win the Bobby Renton in good style at Wetherby last month.

He was raised 6lb for that four and a quarter-length defeat of Sky Pirate which looks potentially lenient given, not only the second’s subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup fifth, but the third (Storm Control) and fifth (Almazhar Garde) going on to win handicap chases at Cheltenham and Kelso respectively.

Cool Mix has performed creditably since off the revised rating too, boxing on well for third behind Modus in a quality event at Aintree, where he was briefly hampered in the straight.

He’s totally unexposed over the Rehearsal trip, having never raced beyond an extended two and a half miles, but that’s another potential source of improvement as I fancy he’ll relish more of a test on good ground at this stage of his career.

Posted at 1700 GMT on 27/11/20

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