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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for day two of Chester's May meeting
By Ben Linfoot
Horse Racing
Thu May 09, 2019 · 6y ago
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot previews day two of Chester's May Meeting and he has value bets in two of the handicaps on the Dee Stakes card.
Recommended Bets: Chester May Meeting, Day Two
1pt win Fool For You in 1.50 Chester at 13/2
1pt win Lincoln Park in 3.00 Chester at 7/1
1pt win Forseti in 3.00 Chester at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
There are a few handicaps on ITV4 on the second day of Chester’s May Meeting and the Deepbridge Capital Handicap at 3.00 could be fast and furious over the extended seven furlongs.
Plenty of pacesetters are in here and most of them are drawn low, as well, with Woodside Wonder, Lola’s Theme, Drogon and LINCOLN PARK (7/1 General) berthed in the stalls closes to the rail.
All four like to make the running, but none have as convincing claims as Lincoln Park who has good winning form at the trip off a similar mark.
That came at Haydock in October last year when he made all to win off a rating of 83, just 2lb lower than his Thursday mark, proving his effectiveness on a left-handed track.
It’s not the same as Chester, nowhere is, but it gives hope that he’ll enjoy this test and after a few below-par runs he bounced back to form in the Royal Mile at Musselburgh on his latest start.
He led that day and put clear daylight between himself and his rivals at one point, only to get reeled in on his first go at the mile distance.
The slight drop in trip here looks ideal and a speedy seven could well be his optimum conditions, especially when ridden on the front end by a jockey of the calibre of Silvestre De Sousa.
It’s very hard to pick holes in his chance, but the one negative is the possibility of some serious pace pressure from those drawn around him.
With that in mind I want another string to my bow and the horse that appeals with the possibility of a slightly-stronger-than-ideal gallop in mind is Andrew Balding’s FORSETI (12/1 General).
Balding targets this race and has won it twice in the last six years with Here Comes When and Ian Fleming, the latter coming off an all-weather prep when drawn slightly wider than ideal.
Forseti has a similar profile to that, as he began his year with an outing in a three-runner race at Lingfield where he displayed his liking for a good gallop and a fight – and not for the first time.
His win at Salisbury as a juvenile also displayed such traits and he might just get the run of the race from stall six here if the aforementioned pace forcers burn things up a bit too much.
In that scenario he’d likely settle well and fight for the line in a tight finish, something we know he can do. Off 80, just 1lb higher than his winning mark last time, he looks fairly handicapped.
Certainly, he looks an improved model as a three-year-old since being gelded.
A tendency to race keenly caught him out a few times as a juvenile, but the loss of his manhood and the possibility of a strong gallop are reasons to believe he’ll race evenly on Thursday.
On balance, 12/1 looks fair, even accounting for the prospect of traffic problems, and I want to split stakes on him and Lincoln Park.
Earlier on, I was all set to back Growl again as I thought he shaped okay at Haydock and he’s undoubtedly well handicapped when everything drops right for him.
That could well be on Thursday if they go hard up front, but he’ll need everything to go his way from stall nine and I just wonder if the ground will be soft enough.
The more I think about it, the more I think he’ll get outpaced and, while he’s on the radar for when he’s back over six furlongs, I’d rather back his stablemate FOOL FOR YOU at 13/2 (General) in this race.
Richard Fahey’s filly looks to be getting quicker and she showed plenty of speed over the five furlongs at Chelmsford last time when travelling strongly before finding trouble in-running on the home bend.
She stayed on well again for third and she likes racing left-handed as her win at Wolverhampton proves, while she finished second on her sole previous start at Chester.
Sean Davis takes another 5lb off at the lower end of the handicap, so she could well take advantage of her feather weight from stall three with Copper Knight likely to give her a nice tow into things from stall one.
The daughter of Lawman can be slowly away, something that’s not ideal around here, but the only pace drawn close by looks to be Copper Knight so it is with hope that Davis manages to get her into a nice position early on.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +330.69pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 08/05/19.